05/19/07 FCST: MT

[Jimmy Deguara]

We are in Lusk, eastern Wyoming and plan to do some site seeing today and set up for the first part of the SW flow tomorrow. GFS, if it is to be believed, has the SW flow over the region near Billings and north. With E winds at the surface and progged dew points on the increase - high 40's to low 50's, I think some pretty supercells and perhaps the isolated tube is possible. For us, this is a change from the crap high based virga we saw yesterday (not chasing of course). We missed the tornado coincidently occurring north of Cheyanne (lots of virga yesterday).

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I'm currently near Gillette, WY and will be headed North to Billings to reassess things late morning tomorrow. I may head as far West as Big Timber then play the storms to the East. NWS Billings is talking about a nice boundary from South of Livingston to Billings tomorrow. I am hoping for some nice surprises out of this setup.

 

[Marko Korosec]

We are sitting in Buffalo, WY now...drove all the way up here from Colorado Springs. Will be also playing in the eastern MT tomorrow near Billings as from the latest model runs.

Here is a FCST sounding for KBIL for 00z: http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/1250/kbil00zhs6.png

It does look quite favorable for some nice sups over there, although I don't like to see those high LCLs, but what can we expect up here. Well looking at latest WRF, Td's could be in the mid to high 50's, good enough for some nice structure at least if not a more appreciated surprise.

 

[Steve Burrows]

Where sitting Buffalo atm, drove up from Dalhart TX, was planning on staying at Casper but the town was full. Models arent showing as much moisture now as they have, but were still hopefull. Targeting Billings this morning, then working things out from there.

 

[Justin Rudicel]

Currently in Fort Collins, Co heading towards Billings this afternoon. Hoping to see some nice storm structure and maybe if the moisture pools a little more. The high LCL's Marco are discourging but this is the high country and you never know. I guess this is the only show in town right now so i guess we can't complain. Hopefully this next big shortwave produces because this last week has been nothing but a scenic roadtrip for me and my buddy. Already everybody lets do the dewpoint dance and rub those hands together to get that shear going. Sorry had a couple cups of java this morning plus i'm try to keep this slow time in good humor. Take care and I'll be watching for updates from everyone.

Justin

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I'm in Sheridan, WY-heading North. At the moment, I think I will head to Harlowton, MT (NW of Billings)..and generally follow along the Route 12 corridor. (Decide when I get to Billings. ) I note that the 12Z NAM simulated radar seems to develop a Sup near Harlowton by OOZ. Nice. The dewpoints are disappointing but upslope should moisten things up bit more than the upper 40's there now.

 

[Bob Schafer]

The 12Z WRF advertises Td's in the mid-50's for 00Z in MT, but I'm wondering where that's expected to come from. Metars don't indicate 50's Td's anywhere near the area of interest attm. The (12Z) RUC progs Td's of near 50. Evapotranspiration? But, there isn't much vegetation there, is there? Has there been rain there lately? There's no help at 850mb (or 700mb) for mixing down, either. (Though 850 is, I suppose, at about ground level.)

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Currently in Billings. Dewpoint here is 49. Heading West..storms should form around 19Z in Park County with an East wind impinging on the Absarokaa mountain range there and convection advecting in from Yellowstone.

 

[Jimmy Deguara]

We have headed to and remained in Billings. Great to see SW flow aloft once more. A boundary set up here near Billings could make things interesting - dew points 54.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara