Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
Seagraves, TX (45 miles southwest of Lubbock)
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should fire along an outflow boundary between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Storm mode will be primarily multicell, with an embedded supercell or two.
Synopsis:
At 14Z, an MCS was ongoing in the NRN TX panhandle, apparently in association with a disturbance over NM. UA analysis indicated an upstream compact H7 shortwave over NM embedded within anticyclonic ULVL flow. LLVL moisure was slowly increasing over WRN TX, with an axis of 16C H85 dewpoints nosing into the LBB region. The MAF 12Z sounding indicated steep lapse rates and impressive instability, along with little capping. The LBB radar loop indicated an OFB in association with the MCS, extending E from LBB along US-82. This boundary was pushing towards the S at 20 mph.
Discussion:
Ongoing convection in the TX panhandle should continue to track to the SE while slowly intensifying and becoming SFC-based. Attention turns to WRN TX during the afternoon as renewed development takes place. Southeasterly SFC flow will allow dewpoints to remain in the low-60’s F during peak afternoon heating hours. Otherwise, little in the way of synoptic scale features or forcing is noted. Aerial coverage of convection will be limited, with storms firing along boundaries and other mesoscale features. An OFB lingering the area should provide the focus for convection, and hodograph curvatures should be enhanced along and immediately N of this feature. Once isolated storms develop, the tornado threat should be minimal due to high cloud base levels; however, moderate instability coupled with SFC-6km shear of 30-35 kts should be supportive of storm organization. SFC-3km SRH should be maximized N of the aforementioned OFB. Overnight, another MCS should track SE from the TX panhandle, fueled by a strengthening LLJ.
- Bill
9:50 AM CDT, 05/17/10
Seagraves, TX (45 miles southwest of Lubbock)
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should fire along an outflow boundary between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Storm mode will be primarily multicell, with an embedded supercell or two.
Synopsis:
At 14Z, an MCS was ongoing in the NRN TX panhandle, apparently in association with a disturbance over NM. UA analysis indicated an upstream compact H7 shortwave over NM embedded within anticyclonic ULVL flow. LLVL moisure was slowly increasing over WRN TX, with an axis of 16C H85 dewpoints nosing into the LBB region. The MAF 12Z sounding indicated steep lapse rates and impressive instability, along with little capping. The LBB radar loop indicated an OFB in association with the MCS, extending E from LBB along US-82. This boundary was pushing towards the S at 20 mph.
Discussion:
Ongoing convection in the TX panhandle should continue to track to the SE while slowly intensifying and becoming SFC-based. Attention turns to WRN TX during the afternoon as renewed development takes place. Southeasterly SFC flow will allow dewpoints to remain in the low-60’s F during peak afternoon heating hours. Otherwise, little in the way of synoptic scale features or forcing is noted. Aerial coverage of convection will be limited, with storms firing along boundaries and other mesoscale features. An OFB lingering the area should provide the focus for convection, and hodograph curvatures should be enhanced along and immediately N of this feature. Once isolated storms develop, the tornado threat should be minimal due to high cloud base levels; however, moderate instability coupled with SFC-6km shear of 30-35 kts should be supportive of storm organization. SFC-3km SRH should be maximized N of the aforementioned OFB. Overnight, another MCS should track SE from the TX panhandle, fueled by a strengthening LLJ.
- Bill
9:50 AM CDT, 05/17/10
