05/15/05 FCST: High Plains

Models show NW 35Kt flow over ESE 25Kt 850Mb winds and capes of 1000J/Kg with good 1Km helicity for the CO and NM front ranges. Plus SPC has a slight risk for the area. Starting a FCST thread..
I am not that impressed but I am on my chase vacation, therefore I must chase. Looking at the 12Z May 14 ETA, there is an area of 500 CAPE extending into the western Texas Panhandle, eastern New Mexico by late in the day and helicities of 150 to 200 m2S-2. Dewpoints of 55 reach halfway between Lubbock and Amarillo. 500 is weak with 25-35 NW flow.

I don't expect tornadoes but that is a pretty area and maybe there will be some nice photogenic LP's. (hope!) I'll probably go to Amarillo today and plan for a target west of Lubbock tomorrow.

Bill Hark