05/07/10 FCST: IL/IN/OH/KY

[Steven Marshall]

And you know what the forecast is for Saturday night here in NW PA???? SNOW! #*)&*!@#@#(!#

7 more days before we head west....just 7 more days....

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Have written an updated forecast for tomorrow on the CA website, here is much of what was written. Pictures and skew-t's can be viewed at the link below:

http://convectiveaddiction.com/2010/05/06/fcst-050710-miinoh/


"A favorable kinematic environment will support the development of severe weather across the region on Friday afternoon as LI values reach -5 to -7 C across the warm sector, melded with a 40-50kt LLJ oriented from the SSW. If the NAM does indeed verify, 850 mb winds will be backed even further than currently depicted by the GFS, owing to a deeper 850 mb low as it moves into southern Lake Michigan by 21z Friday. Strong diffluence will be aided by an enhanced 70-80 kt mid-level jet streak that noses into the region, aggrandizing shear profiles and creating an environment very conducive to rotating updrafts.

A significant 100-120 kt upper-level jet streak moving from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region will enhance shear profiles, with upper air divergence enhancing storm growth, maturity and longevity. These upper air profiles will be congruous with backed surface winds, increasing low-level curvature, especially in close propinquity to the surface low.

Morning convection across the region will likely be elevated in nature, but should become more surface-based into the afternoon hours as more favorable low-level dynamics work into the region. The robust nature of this system will engender a respectable Theta-E axis across eastern Indiana and western Ohio on the order of 340K.

It should be noted that this is not an archetypal Great Plains severe weather setup. CAPE values AOA 500 J/KG, coupled with the attendant dynamic environment, have historically been plenteous enough to generate tornadic supercells."

 

[Matt Hunt]

I'm starting to like this setup a little more now. I'm planning on posting up near Ft. Wayne, IN early in the afternoon. I feel more confident in the more unstable environment of NW Ohio, but at this position I can either go that direction, stay put, or further west if need be depending on when and where initiation happens.

 

[Dave Marshall]

There's definitely a solid cloud shield in place this morning, largely associated with the rather robust convection going on between South Bend and Fort Wayne. As this activity moves out to the NE, visible satellite loop does seem to indicate some erosion of the cloud cover over southern IN, which should slowly advance into southern Ohio. Clouds over northern Ohio may be more stubborn, which is problematic as the area north of I-71 should be closest to the track of the surface low, providing the best potential tornado dynamics. On the plus side, this may leave some nice outflow boundaries to focus convection later in the day.

Regardless, my initial target will be Mansfield, OH by 1pm local. From there, I can opt to head west to Findlay, or south toward Columbus.

 

[Dave Gore]

We are starting to get some peeks of sun, but the cloud cover is still pretty solid. Warm front is progressing, but is still situated in southern Indiana and central Kentucky. I still think that NW Ohio will be the place to be today, but if the warm front ends up slowing down, chasing in Central Ohio, especially Columbus, will be a big pain during rush hour......

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Pressure falls this morning near Chicago suggest the Low will track a little further to the NW than was thought yesterday. (However this notion isn't completely clear due to the track of the MCS this morning.)

I may end up chasing further North- very close to the MI/IN border if that area or nearby areas can destabilize after this morning's MCS. Extreme levels of low-level shear that will be present near the eventual position of the Warm front may make up for the lack of instability.

Areas further South probably will just end up with a big fast moving bow.

If some sort of outflow boundary does form in the warm sector-that would be another potential target.

 

[Matt Hunt]

The RUC sounding is showing CAPE of 2000 j/kg over a large portion of NW Ohio and into NE Indiana by 6pm this evening. This looks much more favorable than previous models. The biggest problem in chasing I feel is going to be the speed these storms will be moving. Luckily NW Ohio is pretty flat and bare, so we should have good visibility. I'm still planning on heading toward Ft. Wayne, and will assess the situation again once I get up there, but will likely begin to head east into Ohio from there.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

The RUC sounding is showing CAPE of 2000 j/kg over a large portion of NW Ohio and into NE Indiana by 6pm this evening. This looks much more favorable than previous models. The biggest problem in chasing I feel is going to be the speed these storms will be moving. Luckily NW Ohio is pretty flat and bare, so we should have good visibility. I'm still planning on heading toward Ft. Wayne, and will assess the situation again once I get up there, but will likely begin to head east into Ohio from there.

Some nice clearing going on in IL so I'm increasingly optimistic that this is going to happen. That MCS in MI(which is making it quite thundery in the Lansing area at the moment) seems to be exiting stage right quickly.

I hope to be down to the I69/Indy Toll Road intersection by no later than 2PM EDT and make final adjustments from there.

 

[NBrammer]

Debating going out chasing today for this one. I think this event will be mainly wind/hail with one or two brief rogue tornados.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Clearing is well underway in IN and W OH. Dewpoints are going up as the LLJ kicks in from the south. Still concerned about the advancement of the LLJ into NW OH before storms initiate to give best shear. The RUC has finally latched onto the idea of initiation in N IN and NW OH also around 4pm which is much more promising. Still can't make up my mind to chase yet or not. Wanted to already be at the target area but it may be to far south now anyway. Hmm. What to do...

Chip

 

[rdale]

Great winds above the warm front on this flight out of South Bend just a few minutes ago!

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[Mark Sefried]

The warm front is showing up nicely attm as a slowly northward moving boundary on satellite along and a tad north of the U.S. Route 24 area fron North Central IN into far NW OH near Defiance. If any storm can fire on this boundary and tag along on it then it may have a decent shot to become possibly tornadic.

 

[Andrew Kajfasz]

The warm front is showing up nicely attm as a slowly northward moving boundary on satellite along and a tad north of the U.S. Route 24 area fron North Central IN into far NW OH near Defiance. If any storm can fire on this boundary and tag along on it then it may have a decent shot to become possibly tornadic.

This is exactly what I'm hoping for. I live in Defiance and it's definitely nice having the potential coming to me than having to go to it. However, depending on where the storms go, I have easy, quick routes to Fort Wayne and beyond, down to Lima and farther south towards Dayton, and up into southern Michigan.

Definitely the best setup I've seen around this area in a long time. Usually it's just various lines of storms that occassionally have a cell or two go severe as they plow across the region, but this is setting up as a potentially good night.

The only things that worries me is, as it gets later into the evening, not only will there be the slowly fading light to deal with, but also the absolute HP mess that these storms will probably be, as well as how fast these storms will end up moving once they get rolling.

Thankfully, with the exception of some more heavily wooded areas up near the Michigan border and in the more "in the sticks/middle of nowhere" country areas, and obviously the buildings in urban areas, the land is fairly flat and open and pretty good sight lines in most places to catch most of what the storms do.