05/06/04 NOW: Great Lakes

[Dan Cook]

I'm thinking tomorrow and Sat will be the real show.

 

[rdale]

"I'm thinking tomorrow and Sat will be the real show."

I think you are missing the "NOW" portion of the NOWcast thread ;> In any case the front will be farther to the south at that point, so the MI area will be excluded.

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by rdale
\"I'm thinking tomorrow and Sat will be the real show.\"

I think you are missing the \"NOW\" portion of the NOWcast thread ;> In any case the front will be farther to the south at that point, so the MI area will be excluded.

oh crap my bad.

 

[Joe Smith]

90 degrees at 5 p.m. with 3000-3500 CAPE in my area. No cumulus seen. Latest SPC meso shows little convective inhibition in my area but still wondering if that front will prove to be the trigger for later this evening. If it is things could get explosive really quick.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Storms Firing up Over the Great Lakes

Even though the SW watch for MI was canceled, the line of clouds moved over Lake Superior (I think). What looks like a spring version of the "Lake Effect Snow" has a line of storms firing up north of Buffalo NY over the lake area.

Here's a link to NWS radar out of Buffalo NY while the storms are moving thru:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19...0/si.kbuf.shtml

Don't know if we have any body with StormTrack out there that's watching these storms or not???

Hoping for a better chase day tomorrow!! 8) LJK.

 

[rdale]

"Even though the SW watch for MI was canceled, the line of clouds moved over Lake Superior (I think)."

Close - that's Lake Ontario, Superior is the one north of the UP ;>

"What looks like a spring version of the "Lake Effect Snow" has a line of storms firing up north of Buffalo NY over the lake area. "

Lake Effect events start from the lake and stream off it in bands -- this is just a mess of unorganized showers and thunderstorms.

 

[Ben Pinette]

Waiting for FROPA, but I'll say bust.... Only organized area of anything is in St Clair County and north.

 

[rdale]

"Waiting for FROPA, but I'll say bust.... "

I agree and was going to head out for dinner - but that stuff in the thumb popped up so fast (from nothing to 35K+ tops in 15-20 minutes) I'm going to hold off for just a bit...

 

[rdale]

DTX 00Z 850mb temps: 17.0C (3C cap at 838mb)
DTX 00Z forecast temps from all Eta and all but one RUC runs today: 13-14C (0 cap)

The 21Z RUC had small cap at 00Z DTX but easily overcome-able. The 3C cap is much more difficult.

My guess is that the cloudiness from the earlier MCS allowed for more warming in that layer?

- Rob

 

[rdale]

The thumb storm took on rotation and headed into Canada, but the ones along the MI/IN line look QUITE nice! Finally broke through the cap and exploded to 55K with VILS to 70!

- Rob

 

[rdale]

...and the way these things are popping up, I cannot believe there is NO WATCH yet they issue one this morning for a cell that dropped dime-sized hail once prior to watch issuance!!!

 

[rdale]

SOFTBALL sized hail reported in Lagrange, just northeast of the IWX radarsite where VILs were at 70!

 

[Ben Pinette]

I'm debating heading to Lucas County. Only 45-50 miles and I can beat it if I leave in thee next couple minutes. Not quite sure I want to go chase softballs at night though! The Hillsdale cell looks somewhat weak, but still warned on at this time.

Warning now for Lenawee County until 11:15. Winds to 70MPH and hail to 1". Will be near Tecumseh at 11:00

 

[Ben Pinette]

Cluster now around Adrian, moving east at 50MPH. SVR now for Monroe, expected to be near Dundee at 11:05, Monroe and Temperance by 11:20.

The line from Angola to Plymouth has weakened substantially over the past few runs. Branch County cell appears to be losing some steam as well.

 

[rdale]

I don't think the Monroe stuff will hit Temp/Lambertville but stay closer to the center of the county, VIL's still VERY high with that one. The storms behind are running into regurgitated air and won't be an issue...