04/28/04 FCST: MIDWEST

[Matthew Havin]

A bit far out but might want to keep an eye on it:

CPC NCEP:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...s/p_threats.gif

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looks like someone in the Midwest could get some decent storms (outbreak?)...Of course, thats what I said about today in the Great Lakes region...

Robert

 

[Matthew Havin]

Point of note:

0Z April 26 ETA has sfc low bottoming out around 984mb by Wednesday over MN, with the 0Z April 26 GFS hitting 986mb.

Let's see how continuity holds up as the week progresses.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Then our sites turn to our neck of the woods in So Cent il for thurs-sat. Tv is still sitting on dash from sat from se MO lol

 

[Jared Mysko]

I will be keeping my eyes open over the next couple of days since SPC is mentioning us in Canada in the Day 2 outlook:

"VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SEWD THRU INTERIOR PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT."

... but I don't believe that I will be chasing again for awhile since our season really doesn't usually start till June in Canada... :roll:

...right?

 

[Jared Mysko]

Should I be concerned about this? Highs are now forecast to be in the 80's for Tuesday, then the high temps are forecast for the 40's the next day! We are looking at record heat followed by the a arrival of a major low pressure system. It seems to me that southern Alberta may get some wx on Tuesday and whatever they get will go south into the northern plains/Midwest.

Jared

(filling my car with gas for another long trip...)

 

[Joe Smith]

Think moisture return from the gulf will be the big factor Wed.-Thurs. in the Midwest. If surface pressure verifies we're going to get a lot of sw wind. If only that were due south from the full gulf I think things would be a lot more active with much more instability. Will wait and see.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Joe Smith
Think moisture return from the gulf will be the big factor Wed.-Thurs. in the Midwest. If surface pressure verifies we're going to get a lot of sw wind. If only that were due south from the full gulf I think things would be a lot more active with much more instability. Will wait and see.

Agree... cold front is going to stall in the central Gulf soon, and will begin to wash out / lift northward starting tomorrow or early Wednesday. This front, while thankfully not scouring the Gulf like the front of a couple of weeks ago, while be signficantly impede return flow of deep moisture farther north... If only it weren't for this current system, I'd say a significant severe weather outbreak would be possible, but I think the lack of deep moisture will be a major negative. LOL And remember folks, it's only April! We're about a month ahead of time here for the northern US to see signficant severe weather...

 

[ckbehnke]

Yes moisture return is the question. The 12Z Eta, calling for 2 m dewpoints in the mid 50's for western WI on 0Z Thursday defies all logic. I am sure the upper levels will be doing fine for instability, but if there is no moisture, there is no moisture. April 20th occurred about a week ago, so keep your eyes open.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

As long as we are wishcasting out several days - if moisture continues to be problematic for the 28th, GFS indicates something else possibly by the weekend (Saturday) over central plains under SW flow regime. Maybe by then Gulf moisture will become better re-established than it appears to currently be mid-week. Progression of the system on the 28th may also slow according to GFS. The cap could again be in the picture as well. The possible event - whatever it turns out to be - on the 28th could easily be late. Of course, still plenty of time to watch things evolve.

It is nice to see this regime setting up shop now, though. We may have a fairly 'normal' (whatever that is) month ahead as far as severe weather is concerned.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Sorry to put this here....

Can we start a forecast thread for NW OK possible SW Kansas for Thurs 29th April... 12z ETA is showing interesting things...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

No problem Stuart - it's ready now.

 

[BMcMillan]

Severe thunderstorm watch w/ main threat of damaging winds just issued for northern Minnesota. Maybe the day will yield some interesting weather after all...plus a developing cumulous line west of Duluth is beginning to look a little more impressive on visible satellite!

 

[Jared Mysko]

There is now a tornado warning with this system but it looks like the worst is going north-east. Same stuff went threw Kindersley, SK last night bringing a dust storm with 89km/hr winds. Temperatures dropped like a rock all across the Canadian prairies after the wind blew the crap out of us. From a high of 26C (79F) to a low of 1C (34F) in Saskatoon.

Northern Ontario now has warnings posted:

"A severe thunderstorm is entering the extreme southwest portion of
the region and is moving northeastward. Damaging wind gusts to
120 km/h are likely associated with this storm."

that's 75mph I believe,

Jared Mysko

 

[BMcMillan]

Thanks Jared for that detailed account from north of the border. Isn't it amazing what a strong spring low pressure system (I think the latest RUC run has the low at 988mb) can do! I sure wonder what May will bring us here in the northern plains.