04/23/10 FCST: TX/AR/OK/LA/KS/NE/MO/IL

[Chris Carter]

Watching a good size tower going up to the southeast of Lincoln, NE. Hoping that it will break the weak CAPE in place and get going.

 

[Hank Schyma]

Been staking out Paris Texas all day. Weak cells have been teasing me all day to the northeast and eAst. Not sure exactly why I'm hear today. Assume spc knows something I don't.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Looping the vis sat imagery, it looks like some of the cirrus along the central/eastern NE/KS border is "thickening", perhaps evidence of some forcing aloft moving through the area. Then again, surface obs indicate dry low-levels beneath that batch of Ci, so perhaps we'll see more development when that forcing (if it exists) moves above the better low-level moisture over southeastern NE in the next couple of hours. The mid-level jet streak/max should nose farther northeastward through the evening, and the southern NE area (and adjacent areas of NC KS, perhaps) should continue to remain in the left-exit region of the upper tropospheric jet streak on the east side of the low that's spinning away to the west. If you modify the OAX sounding for sfc conditions in that area now (e.g. 70-73 F), there really can't be much if any appreciable CINH left. This is likely more of a case of a lack of surface convergence...

The models may not always do well with deep moist convection, but there's been a persistent signal for initiation in the late afternoon from southeastern NE down into eastern KS. If nothing else, there's always the "6 o'clock magic"...

EDIT: The 12z 4 km WRF from EMC isn't showing initiation in E KS (as the 00z high-res WRFs from last night did). However, it does still develop some convection in far southeastern NE by 0-1 UTC (though it also has some supercell-ish storm / strong convection with high updraft helicity / under the mid-level cold pool tomorrow in the NE/IA/MO/KS quad-border area). *shrug*

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Sitting west of David City NE, with better looking towers going up, i think they will break through here shortly. Good luck to everyone..

 

[Chris Carter]

Storm motion seems to be moving to the NW. Now usually you will find the tornadoes on the SW corner of a normal supercell. My question is, where would the ideal location be to look for the tornadoes on a supercell moving to the NW?

sidenote - watching a lone tower going up SE of Kearney, NE just over the KS border.

 

[Jen Metcalf]

I am sitting at my house on the NE side of Lincoln watching the storms explode! Got a good vantage point right now- we will see how it goes.