04/23/04 NOW KS OK TX

"That cell is moving 243/18kts. As Ferris would say: "I would highly recommend it if you have the means and are in the area ... it is so choice." 74DBz now."

Great ... since I wrote this there has been some quick flank development on the leading edge of that storm and suddenly it's poopy again, moving into rain cooled crap now. This sucks - just as a TVS is showing up on it too ... will be interesting to see just what happens.
 
The cell is now entering Haskell Co. storm motion looks to be ENE at 20mph and looks to be cycling a bit, I have lost a definite couplet. Still looks good though.
 
I really don't like the setup today. I mean, look at the forecast mid-level flow. Pfff... Yes, there's abt 50-55kt 0-6km shear per the 12z ETA by this afternoon near the front, but the shear vectors are nearly parallel to the front, except perhaps south along the dryline in central TX. The best mid-level is is progged to stay west of the area until very late tonight... I mean, 45kts at 500mb may be decent, but 15-20 kts at 700mb is far from impressive, as is 15-20kts at 850mb. Directional shear is excellent, and LCLs are nice and low. But I really can't see any sustained tornadoes merely because the wind shear (storm-relative flow) is weak...

Now, to make this more of a NOW post, I see the affect of having shear vectors and storm motion nearly-parallel to the front. Now, if a storm can strongly deviate to the right off that boundary, I can see it going tornadic. Otherwise, I just don't know about things...

EDIT: Speaking of strongly deviant motions, that cell over Haskell county is indeed strongly deviant. The cell south of LAW also appears to be turning right... Might head down that way soon despite my pessimism on todays situation...
 
Starting to keep a closer eye on the storm SW of Lawton now - - - Lawton looks to be directly in line for it and it has intensified over the last 10-15 minutes. It's motion is currently more ENE than NNE like the others ...
 
That rotation in Haskell Co. has got to be rain wrapped. There is a cell going up just to its south that is running into the hook.

I agree about that Cell to the SW of Lawton it does look a lot better. It is also isolating itself.
 
You might be wise to....it looks like this one is going to be the only game in town for a little while. It HAS to be producing, by everything I'm looking at, and a right-mover to boot!!

I'm glad to see Lawton got spared. Let's hope some of the smaller towns are, as well.
 
Folks in Wichita Falls get ready to roll - the cell to the south is regaining its organization and has intensified again ... I'll bet it will be tornadic again shortly ... on a course to run SE of Wichita Falls ....
 
If you look at the radar out of Frederick you can notice the quasi-stationary front as a fine line in the reflectivity south of Lawton. The aforementioned supercell is riding along this boundary. Nice backed winds to the immediate south of it. Good luck!!
 
The rotation is a lot more pronounced on the Lawton storm than the one S of Wichita Falls. Ithink someone pointed it out earlier, but I think the TOR potential is greater farther north in the watch box. That storm is showing every indication that it's got one, and not just DITOR.
 
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