04/23/04 NOW KS OK TX

Larry J. Kosch

A NOW thread has been started as severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued by the NWS for KS. SW watches have been issued. This thread has been extended to OK and TX for possible later storms or tornadoes. You can discuss your storm tracking analysis/chasing plans here. 8) LJK.

P.S. Slight correction of heading format (Date/Now/Location). LJK.
 
tornado watch

A tornado watch has been issued by the SPC. The watch covers Far SW OK and extends into West Central TX.

"THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS"

The watch is until 6pm CDT.
 
Here we go - - initiation has begun in a line ranging from the Red River area just NW of Wichita Falls down to the Throckmorton area in Central Texas ... let's see where these will take us ... hopefully they won't go linear too quickly ... we haven't had much in the way of SFC heating and seems very early for initiation.
 
I'll go ahead and post an early radar analysis ...

Storms are moving parallel to the front, directly to the N-NE. Estimating that Lawton, OK is in line along with Wichita Falls a bit later ...

*no mesos, TVS yet
*motion ranges from 199 to 244/18-23.
*highest intensity is 56DBz

Will keep watching.
 
The cells appear to be training to the NNE, and filling in quickly. Really little eastward movement. Echo tops are pushing 40,000ft now. Maybe the cap is too weak?
 
I'm wondering the same thing ... the best looking cell is the one furthest to the SW ... it is starting to look supercellular ... the others up around the river are spreading out and looking a bit disorganized ...
 
Well - two of them are indicating confirmed mesos now ... with three additional others showing up as unconfirmed mesos ... they may throw a few out initially and then lose structure ... really hard to tell what they are doing at first glance right now.

Best looking is definitely the cell in the county west of AKL.
 
cell

The Cell just east of Aspermont in Stonewall Co. looks to be taking a bit of an eastward turn. It's starting to look supercellular.
 
Looks more and more like bug splatter on the windshield ... not overly healthy ... I really don't think the winds are going to sustain serious rotation. The SW cell has lost a meso indicator, but continues to show some rotation on radial velocity and has a hook-like appendage. Not impressed at all yet, though - -
 
What I'm most concerned about is the almost complete lack of any decent low-level shear in the watch box (barring local areas of enhanced shear along boundaries of course). Also, as already mentioned, the storms are not doing a good job of moving off the boundary. The area I'm most concerned about for any possibility of significant tornado potential is actually on the extreme northern edge of the watch box, near the stationary front boundary. If any cell can get it into it's head to move along that boundary, it would have the best combination of low-level convergence, shear and instability that I can see anywhere out there currently, and would have the best chance of producing a tornado. I have a meeting I have to go to at 2:30. After that, depending on how things look, I may jet south towards the Ardmore area, and then possibly west. Otherwise, I'm not too optimistic.
 
Yeah that is what I mean by Aspermont cell, it is in Stonewall Co. The base velocity is showing a great couplet. Looks like 20 out and 30 in

UPDATE: it now looks to be 40 out and 40 in on the 1.5 deg. scan
 
"That cell is moving 243/18kts. As Ferris would say: "I would highly recommend it if you have the means and are in the area ... it is so choice." 74DBz now."

Great ... since I wrote this there has been some quick flank development on the leading edge of that storm and suddenly it's poopy again, moving into rain cooled crap now. This sucks - just as a TVS is showing up on it too ... will be interesting to see just what happens.
 
The cell is now entering Haskell Co. storm motion looks to be ENE at 20mph and looks to be cycling a bit, I have lost a definite couplet. Still looks good though.
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HASKELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
RULE BY 235 PM CDT
ROCHESTER BY 250 PM CDT
 
I really don't like the setup today. I mean, look at the forecast mid-level flow. Pfff... Yes, there's abt 50-55kt 0-6km shear per the 12z ETA by this afternoon near the front, but the shear vectors are nearly parallel to the front, except perhaps south along the dryline in central TX. The best mid-level is is progged to stay west of the area until very late tonight... I mean, 45kts at 500mb may be decent, but 15-20 kts at 700mb is far from impressive, as is 15-20kts at 850mb. Directional shear is excellent, and LCLs are nice and low. But I really can't see any sustained tornadoes merely because the wind shear (storm-relative flow) is weak...

Now, to make this more of a NOW post, I see the affect of having shear vectors and storm motion nearly-parallel to the front. Now, if a storm can strongly deviate to the right off that boundary, I can see it going tornadic. Otherwise, I just don't know about things...

EDIT: Speaking of strongly deviant motions, that cell over Haskell county is indeed strongly deviant. The cell south of LAW also appears to be turning right... Might head down that way soon despite my pessimism on todays situation...
 
Starting to keep a closer eye on the storm SW of Lawton now - - - Lawton looks to be directly in line for it and it has intensified over the last 10-15 minutes. It's motion is currently more ENE than NNE like the others ...
 
That rotation in Haskell Co. has got to be rain wrapped. There is a cell going up just to its south that is running into the hook.

I agree about that Cell to the SW of Lawton it does look a lot better. It is also isolating itself.
 
Whoa - definite couplet showing up SW of Lawton now ... it's started spinning ... hook even ...

[image removed because I accidently saved over it ... :)]
 
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