04/12/05: TALK: IL/IN/MO/KY

Blue box should be issued soon....

Thunderstorms continue to increase, especially across Southern Illinois where surface dew points are currently in the upper 50's... Shear is expected to continue to decrease during the afternoon, however ... there will be increasing instability, with SBCAPE reaching around 1500 J/KG by early this afternoon, therefore... I'm expecting the weakening shear may not occur soon enough to blow away the severe weather threat. You can expect some marginally large hail reports today from this stuff....

Storms have now gotten their act together, a few SVR's are currently in effect issued by PAH... With a really nice looking storm in White County, IL ... Radar is currently indicating hail of 1.25" inches.

PAH mentions cold air funnels possible in their Short term forecast... Really?

There's now a new cluster of thunderstorms that have developed in Simpson/Warren Counties in KY and are tracking toward Bowling Green at this time. However, they don't look too dramatic yet. And no new warnings within the past hour. However, I'll keep watching to see if they become a hail threat.

Personally, I'm not expecting much interesting to happen today. Just seems the storms aren't able to get going too good in that environment. Maybe a few hailers but that's about it.

Maybe as the month progresses, we can finally get some REAL storms in this area. It sure has been a dull year so far.
In the northwestern corner of the severe thunderstorm watch box there are several tornado warnings popping up. i'm not able to get out today, but the storms are about 3 counties to the east of me. storms are generally moving to the north-northwest.

had a severe thunderstorm warning near keokuk iowa for hail mostly. have family there, but they've not seen anything, storm stayed just south.

tornado warnings are in west central illinois, no reports of tornado touchdowns, just strong rotation at this point.
The action farther N appears more energetic than the action a little farther S. But it's still very messy looking on radar. Much of the action is presently over Morgan, Menard, Sangamon and Macon Counties in IL. The storms have organized themselves into little lines and clusters and are for the most part tracking NW. However direction is varying somewhat. There's shear markers popping up all over the place but there's nothing overly impressive on radar. Again, very messy stuff. Glad I'm not trying to chase any of that mess. About the only good thing I see about it, it is moving somewhat slowly.
This is the only tornado report I've seen from IL:

0207 PM TORNADO WAGGONER 39.38N 89.65W


Well...I bit.

Went out and I guess, just played with the line. Only put in 80 miles, because visibility was gross.

Severe thunderstorm watch has basically been cancelled for most of the area, aside from an area near St. Louis, where a few severe cells still exist.

I missed any funnel cloud activity, or any severe weather for that matter. Got some low grungy clouds, toerrential rains, and a few bolts of lightning. w00t. :roll:

But hey...didnt expect to chase anyways...and it wasnt even an ideal set up...so...I got about what I expected, which was nothing.