04/09/05 FCST: Midwest

[Larry J. Kosch]

Thought I would start a FCST thread for today since the SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk area for the Midwest. The SLIGHT risk area included a large swath of Nebraska, streching from the SW to the NE corners of the state. Northern Kansas, Western Iowa and the corners of SD and Minn are also included.

NO WW boxes or meso discussions yet, but I can see a nice field of clouds developing over central Nebraska on the COD VIS SAT. You can see a clearly defined boundary, running north/south thru the central portion of the state.

Anybody up for forecasting or chasing plans for today?? Post your forecast discussions here. Thanks. LJK.

 

[Scott Olson]

I have been watching this as well. It looks like GFS/RUC13/NAM are all in agreement in waiting until after sunset for intiation. Looks like storms will start firing in Eastern Nebraska around 0z and work there way into eastern SD by 02Z. If this really does turn out to be the case, wind fields look pretty good (150 m/s2) and with capes upwards of 1500 j/kg could get some decent lightning and some decent hail. Would be nice to get some surface based action even if it was at night, since we haven't even had a surface based storm in E-SD yet. Looks like severe potiental should last well into tonight.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I’m sitting in York, NE under the capped Cu field. It’s 73 with a stiff S wind. I was planning on heading S to Belleville, KS, as this area was prog to have the highest cape value. Since this morning the SPC has shifted their slight area further to the W. Hastings is now talking about convection possible breaking the cap in their NW CWA late this afternoon. So, do I stay with target or go NW, maybe to Neligh?

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Go East!!

Hey I'm looking at the latest COD VIS SAT. The original field of clouds that runs north and south in NE has disappeared. But a new field of clouds has formed. It's running with its boundary going from near Central City up thru Columbus and into NE Nebraska. This field of clouds is moving north up from Kansas. I would hazard a guess that's where the convection will take place. Keep watching...

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Blue Box

NWS has issued a WW (Blue box) for the central part of Nebraska about an hour ago. The watch is set to run until 3 a.m. Sunday morning. Primary threat will be hail and damaging winds as the storms will be slightly elevated.

So far, there's a storm system to the NW of Broken Bow, NE and its moving northward. Early indications are that it could be a quiet night. Unless current storm activities in Western NE sets up some outflow boundaries pushing into the watch area, this WW could be called off early.

Still looking for the bigger show to start tomorrow!! LJK.