Andrew Revering
EF3
I may be on crack here, but I think western Wyoming looks like a decent threat for severe weather today... certainly not chaseable terrain ;-) but I think discussion-worthy and perhaps something to learn from.
The SPC has no risk, not even a little 5% hail circle, I'm curious as to why.
Here are my thoughts:
- up to 1000 joules of CAPE
- good convergence ahead of a closed 500mb low
- cold mid levels at -19 to -20
- limited moisture, maybe getting into low 40s dew, but given the 'cold core' nature of the environment this time of year and the outstanding cape I think this is plenty for some hailers.
I discuss it some more and put together some graphics here:
http://tinyurl.com/cd3vxe
What am I missing?
The SPC has no risk, not even a little 5% hail circle, I'm curious as to why.
Here are my thoughts:
- up to 1000 joules of CAPE
- good convergence ahead of a closed 500mb low
- cold mid levels at -19 to -20
- limited moisture, maybe getting into low 40s dew, but given the 'cold core' nature of the environment this time of year and the outstanding cape I think this is plenty for some hailers.
I discuss it some more and put together some graphics here:
http://tinyurl.com/cd3vxe
What am I missing?
