04/03/07 NOW: IL/IN/KY/MI (East of Mississippi River)

[John Farley]

I think it is time to get a NOW thread going. Currently there are 3 line segments, all severe - one in east central IL, another in west central IL and eastern MO, and another in western MO. The two former seem to be on outflow boundaries, while the latter appears to be on the cold front. I am thinking now that these are just going to keep going, rather than fading and being replaced by later convection. I think the shear profiles could favor some tornadoes in the southern third of IL, but also worry that the present storms could get far enough SE to work over the atmosphere before the best dynamics and instability can develop in that area. Still, a local chase for me, so I will continue to monitor trends and head out when things look good locally.

Hope I got all the states in - I tried to include where action is occuring now but also where it may happen later as the thread continues.

 

[beaudodson]

Morning John

Lot of sunshine across the Paducah area. We have had a few cumulus clouds move in and out this morning. Dew points continue to rise here...as much as 1 to 1.5 degrees per hour. They are now over 60. Looks like the RUC and WRF tried to pop storms here around 9 a.m. - 11 a.m. So far that has no happened. Latest SPC analysis shows CAPE Values still rising. Lot of clouds moving in from Arkansas...looks overcast across a large portion of Eastern AR. Paducah felt like there might be two rounds today. We will see how that plays out. I look for high winds and large hail to be the biggest threat for Western KY and the Southern part of Illinois but the winds do show some backing across our region and with shear increasing later today there could defin be some tornadoes. Will be working radar here so I will miss the photography end of this. Will look for yours photos though Good luck out there.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I agree with John. Everything looks the best in the southern half of Illinois ahead of the middle line. I will likely head south towards Effingham so I can get far enough south of the worked over air, thanks to the leading round of storms that brought me pea sized hail half an hour ago.

 

[beaudodson]

Paducah just put out a NOW forecast and they believe that thunderstorms will start to form between 12 and 1 p.m. They are forecasting them to form along a line from Benton and Carbondale, IL down to Cairo and Cape Girardeau and then towards New Madrid. They believe they will rapidly become strong or severe.

 

[Jim Hunt]

East central IL (Cumberland and Clarke Counties) got the first Tornado Warning I have seen today.

Things in north central Indiana are cooling off over the past 2 hours so the afternoon heating should not be a factor for us.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

My pick for a few tornadic supercells in the next few hours is in the SE Missouri area. The SPC meso analysis shows the best 0-1KM shear and 0-3KM CAPE in this area. Two lines of convection are now in progress- the western one is ahead of the cold front, but the one farther east looks promising- small cells now popping up near KTBN. Convection is southern IL is undercut by outflow according to the radar. This is not a tremendous setup for hoses, with veered surface winds. However, I would not rule out a small cluster of tornado reports by this evening fron SE Missouri into NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

It may be time to add Alabama to the heading: TOR-warned cell in Talledega County showed 70dbz on recent scan. Wasn't expecting much for the area today, but (as written in today's reports) I enjoyed a SVR-warned cell with quarter-sized hail right at home in HSV. Hoping for more, as precip has been endangered lately.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The cell east of Birmingham has turned hard to the right with a nice hook.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

The cell east of Birmingham has turned hard to the right with a nice hook.

Now with 3.5" hail and a meso at 13kft.

EDIT--and now making a further right turn...

Trained spotters now reporting a funnel near Talledega.

 

[Brian Stertz]

UPDATE (5:30pm): T warning finally issued for Clay Co. AR on the supercell mentioned below...another interesting supercell near Sikeston MO at this time.


Supercell moving into Ripley Co. MO showing some intensifying SRV ...is on edges of radar ranges so is likely a fairly strong couplet. I would expect a T warning shortly. Is in proper location for become a very nasty tornadic supercell as it moves e-se.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks as though the weakish 0-1km & 0-3km shear plus veered LL winds was a limiting factor to supporting sustained circulations today and keep outflows in check. Still will validate a MDT risk though.