Gabe Garfield
EF5
This may be a bit premature, but the GFS has had some run-to-run consistency of late.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough associated with the southern jet stream is forecast to impact the southeastern United States early next week. The GFS forecasts a negatively tilted trough with an associated 100 kt WSW speed maximum at 250 mb over the southeast by 00z 3/23. In addition to this, a very potent low-level jet (on the order of 40 kts) is forecast to develop and draw relatively rich boundary layer moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico. GFS forecasts dewpoints over 60 F in the northern parts of MS/AL/LA, and Tds close to 70 F nearer to the Gulf coast. The surface low is not forecast to be that deep (on the order of 1000 mb), but the strong pressure gradient should more than make up for it.
Currently, dewpoints in the C/N Gulf AOA 70 F, so moisture should not be an issue.
Given the time of year, this one bears watching.
Gabe
A low-amplitude shortwave trough associated with the southern jet stream is forecast to impact the southeastern United States early next week. The GFS forecasts a negatively tilted trough with an associated 100 kt WSW speed maximum at 250 mb over the southeast by 00z 3/23. In addition to this, a very potent low-level jet (on the order of 40 kts) is forecast to develop and draw relatively rich boundary layer moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico. GFS forecasts dewpoints over 60 F in the northern parts of MS/AL/LA, and Tds close to 70 F nearer to the Gulf coast. The surface low is not forecast to be that deep (on the order of 1000 mb), but the strong pressure gradient should more than make up for it.
Currently, dewpoints in the C/N Gulf AOA 70 F, so moisture should not be an issue.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MOST INTRIGUING PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON...HOWEVER THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. THE 12Z/15 GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE...MUCH MORE SO THAN ITS 00Z/15 VERSION...HAVING A NEGATIVELY TILTED DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OZARKS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UKMET AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN... HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z/15 GFS. NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN OFFERED BY THE OPS MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HWOJAN.
Given the time of year, this one bears watching.
Gabe