03/01/07 FCST: AR / MO / KY / TN / AL / IL / MS

[Kevin Askew]

Bootheel hands down. Its flat, Plus CAPE looks to be near 2000 there by 1800. My target is here in Williamson co. If conditions warrant, we will move into W. Kentucky after 10 am or intercept can be made in SEMO area we will go there. Wont know of target until approx, 9 am from work looking at MD or local radars. Storms should remain more discreet or LEWP in SEMO/W.Ky. But grab your Nitros bottle, they will be moving at a good clip, but some cells may stay under what I call chasable 45mph.
Kevin

 

[George Tincher]

For those preparing to chase this system, be careful and be aware that these things are really going to be trucking tomorrow:

http://wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_ATMOS_STORM-MOTION_30HR.gif

It would not at all surprise me to see these storms trucking along to the NE at 60 mph plus.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

The tale of 2 choices.Either stay just east of the st.louis metro area as discussed early or go for the bootheel of missouri.The st.louis area is closer to the low and closer to home,but i like the better moisture and decent enough cape in the bootheel.I will be leaving for the caruthersville area in southeast missouri either later this evening or very early tomorrow morning.You have the river crossing there and your options to go north towards paducah or drop south out of dyersbug towards jackson.If anyone else is considering chasing this area as well leave me a message.Any thoughts about my choice of the bootheel over the st.louis metro area.

EAST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO!

If you go to the bootheel of Missouri, with the rate of the storms movement you will have about 15 minutes to chase before it cross the river and you lose it forever... assuming of course you get a supercell to pass in that area. If you stay in Illinois on this side of the river, you don't have to worry about crossing the river and are left with far better terrain and roads on the Illinois side to chase for a longer period of time.

As George mentioned, storm motions will be above 50 mph so if you plan on chasing you will want a large area of good terrain and workable road networks.

If you stay in the bootheel of Missouri you are limited yourself severely.

 

[SteveCarter]

Looks like it's one of those "pick your place and hold on' days. Leaving South Carolina around 5AM, and heading for somewhere between Chicago and New Orleans. lol Seriously tho...probably on the MS/AL/TN border is where I'll be. Can't remember the last time I saw such a large MOD area. Already, as of 8PM est there are tornado warnings in Kansas, and it will be interesting to see where the HIGH risk will be. The shear in this is unreal!

 

[Angie K Holliday]

That's what I'll be doing here in NE Mo, holding on. I may be a little north of the worst of the storms, but with chances of severe storms this early here, I'll be watching.

Temps have risen all day... woke up to thunder and freezing rain, now it's 41 with dewpoints rising, and continuing to rise until the cold front passes tomorrow. Was really stunned to see the huge MOD area for tomorrow, will be getting up early to see how this one turns out. No chasing for this pregnant woman though. I'll take pictures if anything comes close though! What a way to bring in March!

 

[Matthew Havin]

The setup for Thursday is potent, with a 980mb low near the IA/WI/MN border at 00Z Friday. Some form of severe weather will be possible ahead of the front from Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico, and Duluth will be an absolutely terrible place to live for the next few days with feets of snow and gale-force winds.

Picking a specific target for a day like tomorrow is hard, and most likely a waste of time. Tomorrow is NOT a guarantee. It is a conditional setup that leans heavily on its strengths of strong deep layer shear and curved hodographs for supercell storm mode, along with favorable forecast LFC levels..... but lacks decent instability. CAPE between 500-1000 is likely and will be more than enough for isolated tornadoes and even violent ones. Picking a specific target tomorrow will need to wait until after sunrise when you get a better idea on what amount and location of any surface heating takes place between the morning and afternoon storms.

I do have some rough targets, with a region south of Nashville and thru MS/AL to the Gulf being a good area. An even more specific location that I am leaning on right now would be central AL where I feel a midday break in precip is possible allowing for surface heating and localized instability. This area also looks favorable when looking at model-derived LFC (700m), STP (3+ at 21Z), and so-so EHI (1.5-2).

Since I have recently moved to Huntsville, I guess I will just stay put! Give me a PM if you are chasing in the area.

 

[ReidVaughan]

Ground Zero...

I am located in extreme West Central Alabama... This area appears to be under the for tomorrow from all the data I have looked over. I have a building full of students and a town to look after, but I will post anything that move through the area. If you are in the area chasing give me a shout.

 

[George Tincher]

Something else which I have found interesting is that the more SRN portion of tonight's threat area has yet to fire. The cap is so far holding well in Oklahoma. Moisture there isn't spectacular either. Unless the cold front triggers something there later tonight, there's a chance much of tomorrow's threat area (SE MO, ERN AR, SRN IL, WRN KY, WRN TN, etc) will not be contaminated by the leftovers of what we had expected to develop tonight. If that happens, that should allow for some good heating over a much larger area than previously expected. If this happens, CAPE could be considerably higher than we were previously thinking, as we were factoring in considerable cloud cover and a possible MCS spreading eastward into tomorrow morning.

So, the way my feeble brain is interpreting this, the less stuff that fires tonight will just make tomorrow that much more potent.

 

[SteveCarter]

Well, here we GOOOOOOoooooo.........Have to get to bed..it's midnight, and getting up in 4 hours, but won't be able to sleep anyway, just thinking about the shear, and lack of night time contamination it seems. Like the last post said, central alabama may not have any rain or clouds over night to hinder development tomorrow afternoon. I'll be in north central alabama, and Ken H., since you're leaving at 4AM, call me when you get to the bama/ga line. Latest models continue to indicate a near record-breaker for Thursday, and the shear STILL is UNREAL! Good luck all, and remember to call your reports in to the NWS, or another relating place...asap.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Just checked in to a hotel in Grenada, Ms (about 30 min. S of Memphis). Looks like it could be an all day chase for me. I'm hoping for some discrete cells in the Ms delta in the morning so we can have some good terrain. Otherwise, I'm set up right on I-55 on the edge of the high risk area and will be able to catch stuff as it begins to go and move E through the day. I do not know what to think of the storms that are currently firing because they are elevated now but the HWO and CO both state that they will become surfaced based. The problem is when and where?

Mid 60 TD's have already spread into central Ar and the warm front is cruising north. The good news is anything that fires will have a lot of territory to work with since moisture is plentiful. The bad news is that a hard target is near impossible until just before initiation. Tomorrow has amazing potential but still has many questions to answer. I'm not sold on the high risk just yet but all it will take is a little sunshine to make me dance. I have not had a lot of luck in the past in this area since the terrain is not great, the road network is not good and it seems like storms are either flying or they are linear/rainwrapped crap (many times both). Hopefully tomorrow will change that.

Good luck to everyone and be careful. Shoot me a PM if you will be in the area.

 

[Brett Adair]

High Risk sounds good.....I will say this...if you want to be in "tornado alley" in Alabama come to Tuscaloosa. It's the tornado capital. The alley runs between there and Cullman. A very good place for big tornadoes tomorrow I am afraid. I will be chasing for several local media outlets in Birmingham...I hope we don't see too much destruction.