Perry Williams
EF1
Well this mornings model suite make me ponder again.. I noted that the UKMET bombs the low out at an amazing 978 mb!!!!![]()
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This may be a little unbelievable though. Furthest southeast of the models would be the GFS. Which takes the low just west of the MS river valley.. Up here in IL initial threat is going to be nocturnal convection. Possibly severe. Dont know how the storms will hold together this time of year.. Moisture still looks to be fine.. I agree with the SPC outlook.. I think they could be further N or NW.. But the highest risk in the day 3 looks appropriate. When this system comes on shore, hopefully these finite details can be resolved.
Yes, and the 12z NAM and GFS deepens it to 977 and 981 mb respectively over eastern Iowa/ SW Wisconsin.