02/20/05: NOW: IL/MO/IN/AR/KY/TN/MS

[nickgrillo]

I decided not to chase today... But there is some decent potential across the area, with shear profiles relatively favorable for supercells (with decent low-level turning yielding strong 0-1km SRH >200m2/s2) with SBCAPE 500-1000j/kg developing over portions of IL/MO... CIN is weakening quickly, so I expect initiation to occur within a few hours.

..Nick..

 

[John Farley]

I'm now pretty pessimistic about anything chaseable in daylight today. The cold front is now in the STL area, still no initiation as of 4:15. Looks like most of the action will be after dark and farther south. The STL NWS office has lowered or eliminated POPs for most of its CWA this evening. Unless something breaks out VERY soon, I'll be bringing the gear back in from the car. :cry:

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Well I'm pretty sure that the gear has been brought out of the car for most people. The highest chance of seeing some type of thunderstorm activity will be over Arkansas and northeastern Texas. No development looks to be occuring yet, and it is looking highly unlikely of anytype of a decent chase left for today.

 

[Nick Parker]

SPC has this wonderful stuff to say:

THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION --
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG
RANGE ALONG THIS SAME AXIS.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO INITIATE
ACROSS SWRN / S CENTRAL MO IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH DEEP-LAYER
FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH WIND FIELD NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT -- HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE.
ATTM...ISOLATED / FAIRLY LOW-END NATURE OF THREAT ALONG WITH SLOW
STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT WW MAY
NOT BE REQUIRED ATTM.

Looks like that so called "winter precip" went the other way from what WFO-PAH was calling for earlier this week... :lol: Gear is in the truck here (no school tomorrow) so a late-night chase might just have to be arranged. Even if nothing gets going too good around here, maybe it will help ease some of this SDS crap i've got going.. :wink: Good luck to all out there.

 

[Nick Parker]

I'm watching a few cells out in Carter and Wayne counties in SE MO. Nothing getting spooled up quite yet, but I do have my eyes peeled. However, there are some storms out west worth watching.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 935 PM CST

* AT 846 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OMAHA AROUND 855 PM CST
DIAMOND CITY...LEAD HILL AROUND 920 PM CST


THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL OR LARGER

 

[Mike Johnston]

SPC has now gone ahead w/ an overnight blue watch box for much of northern and central Arkansas. Storms there, and now in northern OK, seem, if anything, to be picking up both intensity and coverage even well past daylight w/ upper level dynamics moving in from the west.

 

[rdale]

Polite suggestion to re-read the rules for posting in the Target Area...

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

NOW threads are only for AFTER initiation has occured. Starting now (as the season is starting to pick up), look for a tighter grip on posts in this portion of the forum.

Aaron

 

[Nick Parker]

Do apologize on my part if I incorrectly stated/typed anything on this post. :?

Anyway, things look calmer around here. NWO PAH has some Special Weather Statements just south of me (Pulaski, Alexander counties{Illinios}) for small hail. Nothing has been rated SVR yet.

Again, sorry if I have mis-posted something. I'll let others do the posting in here from now on.
Nick