02/04/08 NOW: IA, IL, WI, MI, IN, OH, AR, MO, TX, KY, TN

[Danny Neal]

02/04/08 NOW: IL, KY, MO, AR, OK, TX

Lone elevated supercell thunderstorm is now crossing the Bureau/La Salle County line. How do I know? Was awoken by our spotter net activating. Not much of a tornado threat (although does exhibit rotation) Look for nickel size hail or larger. Pretty nice surprise to wake up too.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

Mother Nature give the Chicago area 2 to 5 inches of snow yesterday and now i see a total of 4 maybe more supercells in western IL and eastern IA right now. Along with two warned severe thunderstorms! I also see an amazing profile out of DVN that will support sups quite well right now! Mother Nature will please make up your mind!

 

[Adam Lucio]

Danny why is it you always beat me to these things.

Anyways, new warning just went up for Henry county in western IL.

Warm front positioned in the center of the state would seem to be the likely force driving this elevated convection.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

Adam that's Henry county, i guess i'm alittle slow this morning and danny beat me to the nowcast thread after i got my post out.

 

[Joel Wright]

Yup, it's been an interesting last two days. Almost 4" of snow last night and now elevated mini-sups.

Looks like the storms are organizing into more of a line now. There are a few isolated cells out ahead though. Some of the Dbz levels spiked over 70 a short while ago.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Its interesting to look at LOTs homepage and see a SVR warning right next to a winter storm watch.

Interesting cluster near Galesburg, wouldnt be suprised to see a warning go up for that...its hard to tell but it looks like im seeing a return of 65dbz?! (Where Im at I only have access to weather.com and the NWSs homepages.)

 

[Danny Neal]

Knox County is under a warning for that cluster. Mainly for hail. It is so weird talking about severe thunderstorms when I look outside and there is 14 inches of snow on the ground. Does look rather intense. Warm front lifting north with overriding moisture will do it though. Seems like a pretty strong LLJ. Based on recent observations the warm front lies from a Macomb to Peoria to Kankakee line.

 

[David Draun]

Dekalb airport reported thundersnow from the precip overhang of that first supercell. It's just a slushy mess out here now with the 12" total accumulations that have occurred through the weekend. Now some intense 65+ dBz echoes rolling into the Chicago area while sun is trying to break out here in Dekalb.

I think there should be a Flood Watch out for all this rain and melting snow. There is enough ponding of water on the roads for an urban flood advisory right now even.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

As a moderating note:

(4) Forecasts & Nowcasts forum. In the Forecasts & Nowcasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now or within the last 60 minutes (photos and third-party reports are allowed).

We strictly moderate the Target Area forums (including FCST, NOW, REPORTS, and DISC threads), so it is important to know the thread type one should use when making a post.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Dryline has been moving steadily westward this evening, and is now officially through the Pauls Valley mesonet site; very impressive RH value changes in a very short period of time, along with a change from Sly to SSE/SEly surface winds. Knocking on our doorstep here in OUN.

 

[Danny Neal]

Line of elevated convection continues to form just to the north of an advancing warm front. Kankakee County just experienced a bout of pea sized hail. Was thinking about making the 45 min trip to Kankakee but it really isn't worth since it is night, its foggy, and I don't want to drive back. Lightning is pretty frequent and the severe warned cell just NE of Bloomington IL seems to be heading toward the Kankakee area.

 

[John Farley]

The storms are likely less elevated and more surface-based as you get down the line into MO, around the Jefferson City area. Thus far the line has been mostly training and not making a lot of forward progress, but there does seem to be some southeastward bulge near the Mississippi River NW of the STL area. Pretty decent looking cell southwest of SPI; could be some hail heading that way.

The better instability has been farther south, including the southern quarter or so of IL, but so far no strong storms there, though some weak showery stuff has been expanding there the past hour or so, southeast of the watch box.

 

[Danny Neal]

I am interested in that cell immediately north west of STL. Big temperature difference. 49/48 on the north side while 70/55 15 miles to the south. Cell north of STL shows a hint of rotation although on the cooler side of the boundary. I could see nickel sized hail falling from that. As John just mentioned that cell SW of Springfield has strengthened and is capable of producing .50 sized hail per GR3

 

[Matthew Fischer]

The storms along the warm front in MO are starting to pick up in intensity. Becoming more bow segments/embedded sups! New warnings for STL area.

Danny that station north of STL is now 52/50, the one south of that is 66/59.