Ilya Neyman
EF1
Vigorous storm system that has been slamming California is beginning to move eastward in an interesting evolution this morning. Subtropical plume of moisture aided by system dynamics and divergence aloft is now moving into the Desert SW after giving southern California another drenching overnight. Cold core center of the upper storm system is roughly 350-400 miles WSW of KLAX this am..and the system has begun its eastward ejection. S-SE surface winds of 15-25 kts are advecting low-mid 50 dewpoints across the coastal waters and into southern California while a substantial mid-level dryslot is working in from the west.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook has a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms along coastal central and coastal/valley southern parts of California from Monterey just south of SFO to just north of the San Diego area attm. Within this area there is a 5% tornado probability along with a 15% severe hail and 5% severe wind outlook.
I must admit, being from southern California myself this is about as severe of a forecast you'll see! It's not very often that such an outlook is developed.
There are several very impressive things that may come together to warrant this during the day. Fcst models prog an 80 kt mid-level jet streak to approach SoCal between 18-20z above SSW low level flow. If sfc winds can back locally in response to terrain features and/or low level cyclogenesis low level shear will go from substantial to significant as the wind profiles throughout 0-8km exhibit good speed and directonal shear. The main vort max is now progged by both the ETA and the GFS to swing toward the coast at or around peak heating, further increasing the destabilization that may be realized, along with convective temps being only in the mid 50s in some parts.
Per SPC and personal thinking if things do indeed come together with discrete convection severe wx, including the possibility of tornadoes, is certainly there!
Should be an interesting day for wx buffs in SoCal.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook has a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms along coastal central and coastal/valley southern parts of California from Monterey just south of SFO to just north of the San Diego area attm. Within this area there is a 5% tornado probability along with a 15% severe hail and 5% severe wind outlook.
I must admit, being from southern California myself this is about as severe of a forecast you'll see! It's not very often that such an outlook is developed.
There are several very impressive things that may come together to warrant this during the day. Fcst models prog an 80 kt mid-level jet streak to approach SoCal between 18-20z above SSW low level flow. If sfc winds can back locally in response to terrain features and/or low level cyclogenesis low level shear will go from substantial to significant as the wind profiles throughout 0-8km exhibit good speed and directonal shear. The main vort max is now progged by both the ETA and the GFS to swing toward the coast at or around peak heating, further increasing the destabilization that may be realized, along with convective temps being only in the mid 50s in some parts.
Per SPC and personal thinking if things do indeed come together with discrete convection severe wx, including the possibility of tornadoes, is certainly there!
Should be an interesting day for wx buffs in SoCal.
