01/13 - 01/14 Severe Wx Event, AR, Midwest

I noticed that there was a thread in effect for the winter wx variety for this rough timeframe but after watching the models come and go for the past few days I'm fairly certain that there may be a severe threat with the upcoming system which is progged to eject out across the aforementioned region Sat/Sun Jan 13th/14th.

You can also follow my forecasting rambllings so far on my Blog (which are, of course, now hideously redundant and out of date considering things change with every model run):

http://www.stormskies.com/OpenDoor/

It is safe to say, however, that the particular day I would like to see something chaseable out of this would be Saturday 01/13. Here is an excerpt from the SPC's 4-8 Day Experimental Outlook:

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TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AND AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
COULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO EXIST IN A CORRIDOR EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY.
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Of course, this interests me - especially the mention of Eastern AR.

I have taken a quick look at the newest 0Z 01/10 run of both the WRF-NAM and the GFS but I don't have a whole lot of time to devote to the metter. In fact that's partially why I posted here, too. I am keen to listen to others' viewpoints who have had far more time to study the situation.

One negative with the upcoming system is the fact that it will be positive-tilt......and although it looks impressive on paper with all that monstrous flow I don't know if the models are really having a very good time of hooking up the upper trough with the surface features in any way that makes sense right now. The newest run of the ETA looks like it may be trying to slow everything down a bit too much with the weak surface low hanging back in western NM at 12Z Sat 01/13.

Last night I preferred the ETA run to the GFS - tonight I've flip-flopped. The GFS now is the more favorable one as it looks to me, with backed surface flow in my area of interest (central/ern AR), and the surface low moving across the region albeit at night. If we can tap any of the 65+oF Tds that the GFS is hinting on, too, we will have to watch out. That sort of moisture with January dynamics should never be discounted.

KL
 
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