01/01/05 FCST: Central Plains

Mike Hollingshead

I can't help myself. Any thoughts on convective possibilities in the central KS to southern IA areas? Is this to early to start a chase season? Interesting 18z eta now actually developing some cape in this region. There should be a pretty impressive warmfront ahead of the sfc low somewhere along the NE/KS border. Just need something to latch onto that front somehow or something further south away from the crashing cold front. With that screaming llj out of the south and strong 500mb winds out of the sw it is likely the wf will be a wash unless something can lift with it. Some very nice helicity values right ahead of the sfc low.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_MESO-ETA_...HSWEAT_30HR.gif

I believe the cape was similar the day of the June 13 alvo supercell...lol. Thoughts?....other then telling me I am high.

Monday could be interesting as well....for January anyway....
 
I'm ready, lol. I mentioned to my wife that NWS Top was mentioning thunderstorms for tomorrow and she said, "Here???" :eek:

That's good stuff!! However, the northerly breeze this afternoon leads me to believe that the moisture will push to our east. We shall see...

Tim
 
I've been looking at this one all night. 0z ETA doubled its forecast of instability pushing that moisture further north. Im particularly interested in the area around Topeka. At 21z Cape is over 1000 with great shear and a nice LI of -2.7. Both GFS and ETA show dewpoints around 55 and temps up to 60. Some QPF is painted over the NW corner of KS around 21z and more afterwards. Now the impediments: There is a layer of dry air and the CAP is fairly strong. With the short winter days im not sure if I would make the drive. New GFS just came through and seems to support a mariginal possibility for severe storms. CAP seems a little weaker on the GFS skew-t. Lets see what the SWODY1 says.
 
I've been wrong before.......If I had a nickel for everytime I've said that, lol.

Anyway, we're at about 65 degrees and just over 70% RH here at the house. If feels more like an early spring morning outside. It's been overcast since I got up this morning, and I was thinking we wouldn't see the sun to warm things up, but it's peeking through the clouds at times.

I must say I wouldn't mind some thunder, and in my backyard on New Year's day none the less :p

Tim
 
Not sure where I should post this but right now in Brookings we're having thundersnow. Lightning flashes are relatively visible.
 
Had one Severe thunderstorm warning in central Illinois around 3 PM for Cass and Mason Counties I think for an elevated minisup that formed and actually pushed 65 dbz on the radar. Had reported 1 inch hail I believe by law enforcement.
 
Andrew yes i heard about that. It doesn't look like this complex is going to hold it's intensity as it gets into SW MI. But it would be nice to see a flash or two. it's pretty cool to see about a 20 to 30 deggree diffrence on either side of the warm front at this time of the year. I just got back from Greenfield ohio and it was 58 down there yesterday. oh thats near columbus OH.
 
"for an elevated minisup that formed"

I didn't see any evidence of anything remotely close to what you'd call rotation - what radarsite did you use to make that determination? I find it hard to believe the environment would support a spinner.

It was warned on because of large ice pellets, which I think is an incorrect use of the SVR criteria (that'd be a different thread though ;> )

- Rob
 
Originally posted by rdale
\"for an elevated minisup that formed\"

I didn't see any evidence of anything remotely close to what you'd call rotation - what radarsite did you use to make that determination? I find it hard to believe the environment would support a spinner.

It was warned on because of large ice pellets, which I think is an incorrect use of the SVR criteria (that'd be a different thread though ;> )

- Rob



Do you post anything other than proving something/someone wrong?


Just curious.

Just an ob. that I"ve noticed, not to be a dic*......

Smart guy.
 
Originally posted by rdale
\"for an elevated minisup that formed\"

I didn't see any evidence of anything remotely close to what you'd call rotation - what radarsite did you use to make that determination? I find it hard to believe the environment would support a spinner.

It was warned on because of large ice pellets, which I think is an incorrect use of the SVR criteria (that'd be a different thread though ;> )

- Rob

Well, obviously temps were low, so CAPE wasnt anywhere to be found...but helicity was very conducive..and the VAD's were favorable for some rotation. The winds were there, there just wasnt enough sun to heat it up even more. There was 0.75 inch hail reported from the cell by law enforcement. I disagree with your sleet comment, as, it generally does not sleet, when its 60F outside, and once sleet reaches an inch in diameter, its its gotta be something else. The cell may not have been a true 'supercell' but did have some of the structure and formation. It remained small, and mostly non-severe, thought it did last with an over 60 dbz core for a couple hours. It had the shape/gradient, as well as high reflectivity on all levels...but didn't visibly rotate.
 
"Do you post anything other than proving something/someone wrong?"

I would have been surprised had there been a supercell yesterday. If there was - it was something I would _love_ to have studied for obvious reasons (January sup's in Illinois have to be quite rare.) If he had evidence of it being a supercell then it's something I would have devoted time to for a study.

Since visual said no rotation, and radar said no rotation, I think we'd agree this was likely not a supercell and I have no further interest in the event. No biggie.

- Rob
 
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