OIL IMPACT DISCUSSION

[Andrew Geil]

Maybe there is some sunshine out of this whole mess. Since everyone gassed up Sunday and Monday, maybe there won't be as much of a demand for gas over the next day or two.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I just interviewed a spokesman for Delek refining. They are a major refiner in Tennessee and Texas.

He says he's confident we're looking at at least $3.50 per gallon for regular unleaded in just a few days.

i post this since it's a horses mouth confirmation.
MP

 

[Andrew Geil]

Hello recession!

Makes me glad I just bought a bicycle...

 

[David Schuttler]

12:44 P.M. - The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port did NOT suffer major damage as a result of Hurricane Katrina. And a port official says the flow of oil could resume within "a matter of hours" once its power supply is restored.

http://www.wwltv.com/

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Just filled my car up at $2.79/gal here south of Tulsa. I didn't cry about it, but I think the guy next to me filling up his truck and bass boat was. :cry:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

September gasoline futures today rose 29.94 cents, or 14.5 percent, to $2.36 a gallon on NYMEX. Trading was halted briefly because the exchange's 25-cent limit was reached.

Update: Story was an hour or two old -- gasoline is trading at $2.48 as I type this.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Here's what happened to NYMEX September gasoline today -- we're up 42 cents today on wholesale:

 

[Shannon Vasquez]

Gas prices here in Palestine were unchanged yesterday, but today they are up a uniform 25 cents all over town. I saw 2 places where they hadn't changed the signs yet, but all the rest were up to $2.65 - 2.70. I'm certain it will increase.

Good news about LOOP, David.

 

[David Schuttler]

Just filled my car up at $2.79/gal here south of Tulsa. I didn't cry about it, but I think the guy next to me filling up his truck and bass boat was. :cry:

You are on the wrong side of Tulsa then... to pay that much

 

[Robert Dewey]

It's $2.90 here, up from $2.65 two days ago.

 

[J West]

$2.99 in metro Milwaukee, still around $2.70 outside of Milwaukee.

Good news that LOOP is intact...this will help in the long run.

 

[Brian Brubaker]

Here in central Kansas, it was $2.60 last night. This morning it was $2.75 with rumors that it's going to jump another .15 to .20 before the end of the day.

 

[Andrew Geil]

I think we can all safely agree that gas will be at, if not the $3.00 mark by tomorrow evening in many, if not most places. It seems a lot of gas stations just haven't gotten the phone call yet to change the price at the pump.

Its funny to read the different news media reports on oil. FoxNews, CNN, etc, seem to given the impression its the end of the world. I can't find anything on CNN about LOOP being intact. I can find plenty there though about a gas crunch coming. But go to local TV media outlets down south, and most seem to be saying "Well, yes, things are rather messy down here, but a lot better then we expected in many instances. Gas will flow again soon."

Who knows who believe.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The problem is with gasoline, and not necessarily oil. The main problem now is refining capacity... In addition, nearly 4 mil ga of gasoline per day are imported, some of that through New Orleans. For the most part (!), we have the oil (e.g. LOOP is intact), but we have no way to refine that oil into gasoline. Well, we certainly do, but not to the capacity that is required now to prevent a substantial price increase.

 

[David Wolfson]

LOOP is a combination of off-shore anchorages, undersea pipes, big pumps, terminal storage, operations personnel and equipment, and pipelines to take crude and product where it needs to go, which is elsewhere. All these elements need to be functioning and in-place before VLCCs can lay up. If the experience with platforms post-Ivan is any indication I'd be very surprised if they've been able to ascertain that all the pieces are ok just yet.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

CNN just reported that 95% of the oil production in the Gulf is currently offline, as well as most of the natural gas production. The pipelines are also down, some of them due to electrical outages. This is probably a temporary situation, but the analyist did use the phrase "impending energy crisis".

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Port Fourchon is flooded. An image on CNBC showed an oil tanker well inland. The port handles 1/6 of U.S. oil imports.

Also from MSNBC:

Royal Dutch Shell said an aerial inspection of its giant Mars oil and gas platform indicated some damage to its upper deck. Two of its drilling rigs were also adrift.

At least six other drilling companies, including Ensco and Transocean , reported rigs adrift after the storm, raising the prospect that dragging anchors or moorings might tear apart vital sub-sea pipelines.

Newfield Exploration Co. said it had lost one of its production platforms in the eastern Gulf.

On the refining side, a U.S. senator who flew over southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday said three facilities belonging to Murphy Oil and Exxon Mobil were all "under water." Flooding is a serious risk for refineries.

Valero Energy Corp. said its 250,000 bpd refinery near New Orleans did not incur serious damage and should be operating again in two weeks. A total of nine refineries were shut down and four more were running at reduced rates.

There was some good news from offshore operators, as Kerr McGee resumed oil and natural gas production at two facilities in the western U.S. Gulf while BP and Marathon Oil said early assessments showed no damage.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which handles a tenth of U.S. crude imports, also said initial damage reports were encouraging and hoped to begin crude shipments on Thursday.

A quote from NBC Nightly News: Chevron investigating damage to MS refinery and noted the company may impose RATIONING for the northeast U.S.

Some good news and bad news with the above info. The status of some pipelines remains sketchy and some gas shortages cannot be ruled out if the system is slow to rebound. Best to keep your vehicle on full especially if you live in a more rural area.

Oil now $70/bl

 

[David Wolfson]

I saw a news report with video today (MSNBC, I think) that showed considerable damage to Port Fouchon, including stove-in storage tanks.

 

[Bobbi Andrzejek]

Yesterday I took my daughter into town for a few appointments. Before going into the orthodontists office, I filled up at $2.51. When I came out 15 minutes later, gas (unleaded 10% ethanol) was $2.79.

We are farmers and I am worried about the impact this will have on our ability to get the rest of our crops in, especailly if there is gas rationing as some have suggested.

 

[Guest]

Gas Prices

I heard on the radio gas was $3.49 in Milwaukee. Gas outside of Milwaukee went from $2.85 this morning to $3.19 this afternoon.

 

[Anonymous]

Confirmed.

Gas is $3.49 in Milwaukee as of this afternoon. Yesterday morning it went from $2.67 to $2.99, and then today it went from $2.99 to $3.49.

What will tomorrow bring?

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Confirmed.

Gas is $3.49 in Milwaukee as of this afternoon. Yesterday morning it went from $2.67 to $2.99, and then today it went from $2.99 to $3.49.

What will tomorrow bring?

This is mine... I forgot to sign in.

 

[David Drummond]

As most of you regulars here know, I live about 35 miles sw of Lubbock in a small town, all station in town have also gone up. They were $2.54-$2.55 and in the last two hours have gone up to $2.77 to $2.99/gal. The sole exception is the two Allsups Convenience Stores here that have remained at $2.55 so far. Both of them have lines of cars two blocks long getting gas.

The station I chase for Newschannel 11 is reporting the expect prices in Lubbock to be at $3.00/gal + by tomorrow here according to local market analysts. :shock:

Today the situation I reported on here has deteriorated. Gas across Lubbock is now at or above $3.00. That Allsups station I mentioned went to $2.99/9 this afternoon.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Bush opens reserves
EPA stops summer time gas rules so sept reserves are avaiable now

 

[Shannon Vasquez]

I was wrong about crude going up to $80 right away. I think that's because there has been so much rifinery and pipeline damage that the demand for crude will be reduced, but I'm not sure. It's a good thing I didn't put money on my expectations (would have if I'd had enough) because I'd have lost it.

However, mark my words, this gas situation is going to get worse. There are already shortages in a few places and they will become widespread. The reporting on the damage to oil infrastructure has been spin and minimizing. We will soon see how this impacts the greater economy. Everyone ready to carpool?