OIL IMPACT DISCUSSION

[Scott Olson]

Latest model consensus may cause significant operational damage to dozens of oil & gas platforms as well as LOOP, Fourchon and Clovelly storage facility.

The $2.61 price is a US average which may or may not reflect your local price. You can either vote how much you think the us average will go up or how much you think your local price will go up.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

I think that once the market opens back up on monday after the weekend off, oil prices will jump significantly. With the projected short-term oil production impact near 70%, there is no way to escape a major increase in gas prices as a result. Some of the big companies to be impacted are Shell Offshore Inc., Chevron USA Inc., Apache Corporation, and Exxon Mobile Corporation.

Source: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122..._gomex_oil.html

 

[Shannon Vasquez]

Oil will be over $80 within 48 hours of market opening, and gas will be over $3 by the end of the week is my prediction. This will have a long term impact, too - not just a short term disruption.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Shannon Vasquez
Oil will be over $80 within 48 hours of market opening, and gas will be over $3 by the end of the week is my prediction. This will have a long term impact, too - not just a short term disruption.

I agree Shannon; however gas is already over $3.00 as recent images from Mike Hollingshead in NE showed a pic of a gas station sign at $3.19 a week or so ago.

I think speculation will make it jump a lot initially. So, may be a good time to briefly jump into oil investments in the stock market. Long term effects of continued high gas prices on our economy could never be good I don't think. They recently raised the interest rate.25 percent to prevent the 'strong' economy from growing too fast and leading to inflation, but I'm afraid with increased interest rates and high oil prices this will begin to eventually cause a slowdown of the economy of the US (and eventually the world) if steps are not taken to somehow moderate this.

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by Bill Tabor+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bill Tabor)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Shannon Vasquez

Oil will be over $80 within 48 hours of market opening, and gas will be over $3 by the end of the week is my prediction. This will have a long term impact, too - not just a short term disruption.

I agree Shannon; however gas is already over $3.00 as recent images from Mike Hollingshead in NE showed a pic of a gas station sign at $3.19 a week or so ago.[/b]

Sorry, you're right of course. I should have been more specific. I guess I meant locally! It's running $2.50 locally. I didn't word my post very carefully, did I? In any case, your point about the speculation is a good one. Regardless of one's opinion about the underlying causes, the volatility of the market should be pretty obvious to everyone by now.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Gas is $2.56 here in Palestine and I have heard of $3.00 in places weeks ago, so I agree this "depends on where you are".

However if anyone votes "prices will go down", I want to hear your reason! Not to disagree, but I'm just curious. A dose of optimism is always good at times like these.

Tim

 

[joannie]

gas prices

im in harrisburg, pa and i just paid 2.64 pr gallon last nite for high test (93) i figure by next week the 3 cylinder metro will need to be resurrected to compenstate for the gas prices of upwards of 3.50 pr gallon. i see this disaster as an excuse for all the petro powers that be to line their pockets!

 

[B Ozanne]

For what it's worth I topped off this afternoon, trying to lock in a full tank if gas prices spike.

 

[Mikel Shively]

Gas here is 2.45 and I expect it to go over 3.00 by the end of the weekend, just on the speculation that gas supplies will be very short.

 

[Austin Ivey]

I just went to the bloomberg "energy prices" page and it appears crude prices are definitely on the rise......even tonight!!

According to the website NYMEX crude is up 6.67% to $70.54/bbl in after hours trading today!!!

Can anyone give insight as to whether this is actually "after-hours" trading? Is NYMEX the primary crude pricing index?

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

 

[Shannon Vasquez]

It's not after hours trading, it's the Asian markets, which are now open. You can track the prices here:

http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=B...ection=energies

Hope everyone stocked up on gas and other things, as this may disrupt trucking, too...

 

[Anonymous]

Wonder how strong of a tropical cyclone the drilling platforms a designed to withstand?

This thing just keeps getting more and more depressing as time goes by!

 

[David Wolfson]

[This is pretty depressing speculation... :cry: ]

The main problem is not that the hurricane will bring about a long term shortage of crude -- heck, we already have that. It's rather that refinery capacity is very tight already, and K may scrap several large refineries as it reams through LA and MS. In addition, even though Ivan wasn't a direct hit on the main offshore fields and was weaker, Ivan caused a surprising amount of damage to the offshore infrastructure -- not only breaking drilling platforms but also with violent undersea wave action breaking up seafloor piping. Especially if LOOP is damaged (as posted elsewhere, the only terminal able to accept VLCC tankers), there will be a big problem in getting crude and product offloaded elsewhere where it needs to go.

I'll forecast the SPR will be tapped. If it isn't, then [political comment omitted as poster bites tongue....].

 

[B Doss]

..

SINGAPORE (AFP) - Oil prices hit new record highs after crossing 70 dollars a barrel in Asian trading hours Monday as Hurricane Katrina threatened the Gulf of Mexico region, dealers said.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...ce_050829021217

 

[Anonymous]

Can anyone give insight as to whether this is actually "after-hours" trading?

It is, meaning that trading is going on in asia. The US markets open at 8 or 9, I believe.

Is NYMEX the primary crude pricing index?

In a word: yes.

 

[Andrew Geil]

The price of gas may become somewhat irrelevant after tonight.

$70 or $90 or $100 a barrell will be mitigated by any actual /physical/ shortage of gasoline. You can't buy a product, regardless of price, if it isn't physically on the shelf to be bought...

 

[Shannon Vasquez]

Natural gas is impacted significantly by this hurricane as well:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/29/markets/ny...nymex/index.htm

The NYMEX said in a statement that contracts are operating under "Force Majeure" because of a shutdown at the Henry Hub facility operated by Sabine Pipeline in Louisiana.

Henry Hub is the centralized point for natural gas futures trading in the U.S. and Sabine serves as the official delivery mechanism for NYMEX's natural gas futures contracts.

"Force Majeure" -- which means "greater force" -- excuses a party from liability if an unforeseen event, such as a natural catastrophe, prevents it from performing its obligations under the contract.

Delivery of contracts take place every day, Thomas Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures, explained. However, since the Henry Hub has been shutdown, deliveries will have to be delayed until the facility is back in operation. He said this is the first time he can remember Force Majeure being declared for natural gas contracts.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I was just about to post about this... I see natural gas is up 16%. Oil is trading "only" near $68/ba last I checked, certainly less than I had anticipated.

 

[Anonymous]

President Bush

President Bush is considering opening up the oil reserves to lesson the impact. We should hear more about it later... maybe during his press conference.

 

[Scott Olson]

I've read that OPEC may again increase production in response to the shortages that might result. Perhaps that is calming the nerves of the caffeinated trigger happy oil traders.

I wonder what the damage to the rigs was? It looked like a good 6 oil rigs were directly in the path of the eyewall with LOOP being very close to the western eyewall.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

The price of gas may become somewhat irrelevant after tonight.

$70 or $90 or $100 a barrell will be mitigated by any actual /physical/ shortage of gasoline. You can't buy a product, regardless of price, if it isn't physically on the shelf to be bought...

Discussion I had somewhere else--the Strategic Petroleum Reserve doesn't matter, since there's no Strategic Refinery Reserve...

 

[Houston Girl]

stock market is up.

The Dow is up. How bizarre!

Here is a good article about what is happening with oil.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV...hes/P127804.asp

 

[Jay Cazel]

The price of gas may become somewhat irrelevant after tonight.

$70 or $90 or $100 a barrell will be mitigated by any actual /physical/ shortage of gasoline. You can't buy a product, regardless of price, if it isn't physically on the shelf to be bought...

Discussion I had somewhere else--the Strategic Petroleum Reserve doesn't matter, since there's no Strategic Refinery Reserve...

Damon is right, it is not the crude it is the refining of it. Here is a break down of the refinerys that are shut down because of Katrina.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest oil import terminal in the United States, evacuated all workers and stopped unloading ships on Saturday.

Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch-Shell Group, BP PLC and ExxonMobil Corp., among others, evacuated offshore workers by Saturday.Refineries capable of processing some 1.6 million barrels a day have shut down. According to Dow Jones, they include:

• Chevron's 325,000 barrel a day refinery in Pascagoula, Miss.

• ConocoPhillips' 255,000 barrel a day Alliance refinery, south of New Orleans.

• Valero Energy Corp.'s 260,000 barrel a day refinery in St. Charles.

• Murphy Oil Corp.'s 120,000 barrel a day refinery in Meraux, La.

• Exxon Mobil Corp.'s 183,000 barrel a day refinery in Chalmette, La.

• Motiva Enterprises' 225,000-barrel a day Norco refinery, and its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent refinery.

• Marathon's 245,000 barrel a day Garyville, La. refinery.

 

[Anonymous]

The price of gas may become somewhat irrelevant after tonight.

$70 or $90 or $100 a barrell will be mitigated by any actual /physical/ shortage of gasoline. You can't buy a product, regardless of price, if it isn't physically on the shelf to be bought...

Discussion I had somewhere else--the Strategic Petroleum Reserve doesn't matter, since there's no Strategic Refinery Reserve...

Damon is right, it is not the crude it is the refining of it. Here is a break down of the refinerys that are shut down because of Katrina.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest oil import terminal in the United States, evacuated all workers and stopped unloading ships on Saturday.

Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch-Shell Group, BP PLC and ExxonMobil Corp., among others, evacuated offshore workers by Saturday.Refineries capable of processing some 1.6 million barrels a day have shut down. According to Dow Jones, they include:

• Chevron's 325,000 barrel a day refinery in Pascagoula, Miss.

• ConocoPhillips' 255,000 barrel a day Alliance refinery, south of New Orleans.

• Valero Energy Corp.'s 260,000 barrel a day refinery in St. Charles.

• Murphy Oil Corp.'s 120,000 barrel a day refinery in Meraux, La.

• Exxon Mobil Corp.'s 183,000 barrel a day refinery in Chalmette, La.

• Motiva Enterprises' 225,000-barrel a day Norco refinery, and its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent refinery.

• Marathon's 245,000 barrel a day Garyville, La. refinery.

Reminds me of something the Saudi ambassador one said. He said that Saudi Arabia and OPEC could easily pump all the oil america needs with no problem but that America doesn't have the refinery capacity to convert such oil.

 

[Andrew Geil]

If you've read "Long Emergency", his prophesy is starting to come true.

Today was the first time in my life I've seen a armed police officer with an assault rifle standing guard at a busy gas station. Makes me glad I live in the cornbelt and not in a big ol' city.