WINTER STORM NOW 12/08-11/2007: KS, OK, NE, MO, IA, CO, among others

[Mike Peregrine]

Might as well call KCPL now and tell them my power is out, that way I'll have it back on by Friday and not have to wait 2 1/2 weeks like I did in '02!

LOL ... well that's an interesting idea.

'02 caused half a million people to lose power, some of whom lost it for weeks. There were some people who did not have power for TWO MONTHS. Yes, two months. I worked with some who were forced to move out of their homes for the winter and move in with relatives. I would do anything to avoid a replay of that. My folks lost power for three weeks in the '96 storm, and that was bad enough. Tornadoes actually seem tame compared with the destruction of some of these ice storms.

Day 1-2 Precip Outlook

 

[Andrew Francis]

Last check was about 270k customers (not people, people = more) - in OK are without power.

The band of freezing rain in OK finally broke apart last night. Now it appears that with the storm system approaching from the west - that original band will lift North into W central and N central OK into Kansas.

Appears to be a good icing over western and northwestern-central OK into S Kansas is in store for tonight. I think a large band is going to set up over the west and north central part of OK for much of the evening and spread northward into Kansas. Places in KS have been below freezing for a while now.... could be pretty significant.

 

[Eric Flescher]

Here in Kansas city ice storm will start 6pm

Here in Kansas city ice storm will start 6pm. It is just grey now but the prediction is at least 0.5 inch thick ice as well as possible thunderstorm ice storms which I am told increase the precipitation and ice. (I did not know that).

 

[Anthony Silver]

LOL ... well that's an interesting idea.
'02 caused half a million people to lose power, some of whom lost it for weeks. There were some people who did not have power for TWO MONTHS. Yes, two months. I worked with some who were forced to move out of their homes for the winter and move in with relatives. I would do anything to avoid a replay of that. My folks lost power for three weeks in the '96 storm, and that was bad enough. Tornadoes actually seem tame compared with the destruction of some of these ice storms.

Yep the ice storm of '02 was the worst I can remember-my power was gone for 2 1/2 weeks (like I said previously) and I had to move in with some relatives that I don't necessarily get along with (which was a HUGE nightmare), on top of that I wrapped my brand new car around a tree-so I'm crossing my fingers in hopes this storm isn't going to be as crazy as they're projecting.

QPF's paint a very ugly picture

NCEP Ice Accumulation Graphic

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I wonder about the reasoning behind channel 4 playing down the possibilities this morning? They are saying under an inch total, and not to worry about this approaching 2002 severity. Good gracious I hope they are right!!! But I am just not seeing it ... everywhere else I look still projects big precip out of this. Maybe it's going to warm up more than I'm thinking? The models haven't exactly been squared away on surface temps lately, so I was thinking that it would end up colder than their projections if anything -

 

[Maggie Kahman]

Here in Kansas city ice storm will start 6pm. It is just grey now but the prediction is at least 0.5 inch thick ice as well as possible thunderstorm ice storms which I am told increase the precipitation and ice. (I did not know that).

6PM is what i heard for us, too. .25" of ice, and 2-3 inches of snow. But the amount of snow depends on how early the precip (freezing ran, sleet) changes over to snow.

 

[Benjamin Smith]

I wonder about the reasoning behind channel 4 playing down the possibilities this morning? They are saying under an inch total, and not to worry about this approaching 2002 severity. Good gracious I hope they are right!!! But I am just not seeing it ... everywhere else I look still projects big precip out of this. Maybe it's going to warm up more than I'm thinking? The models haven't exactly been squared away on surface temps lately, so I was thinking that it would end up colder than their projections if anything -

I've been wondering this exact same thing myself. That is the only station saying that from what I've gathered. Maybe they are just doing it taking a gamble they will be the only ones right....though I would hope that is not the case. Either way driving downtown from Peculiar tomorrow morning may be troublesome!!

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

Well here in Iowa I am still hoping that this talk that DSM, QCA, and Lacrosse is having about the qpf and track of the storm shifting further north comes true. Otherwise I am looking at a minimal event here. Several inches of sleet they are saying, which will be like last time. Lacrosse has said 3 times now that qpf fields and the track of the storm is shifting north... appears to me that latest GFS runs look similar to the NAM now with a bit of a more southern bias... but GFS has me in just as much precip now as my neighbors to the south, and with a watch ONE county to my east and ONE county to my south I cannot see where I would miss the entire thing but...weirder things have happened!
Here's to wishful thinking for a good ice storm where I live...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Rhyuan, you'd be welcome to have it if I had my way. I live on a really steep hill . Benjamin, 71 highway will not be my idea of a party tomorrow by any means. Better pack some kitty litter and sand, buddy. Even on the low side of things, transportation will be hit hard, I'm thinking. Once my car gets in the garage tonight, it's going to stay there. I'm within walking distance of the Plaza and the art museum, so if we aren't working I'm planning on a photography hike.

 

[Anthony Silver]

I've found that Channel 4 tends to downplay everything. Doesn't matter if it's winter weather or severe t-storms..9 times out of 10 they end up being wrong, but I certainly hope they're right on this one! They seem to think the warm front that's positioned across AR will retreat back into the area overnight, but in reality I don't see it making it this far north with all of the thick cold air we have lingering around. It could make it's way back into the SGF area thereabouts, but I don't see it coming any farther north than that. Channel 5 was going overboard with their forecast at 6AM, which didn't surprise me, and Channel 41 was acting as if they were undecided. Guess I'll stick with the NWS info for now, then wait and see what happens later.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I think a lot of it will depend on the interaction between the two boundaries tomorrow and the timing as the warm front retreats and the cold front advances. That cold air is going to reinforce things tomorrow at some point - to me, it's a gamble to say with any certainty how far north the warm air will get versus how quickly the cold front arrives. I think we'll have a much better idea later this afternoon what to expect out of this tomorrow -

 

[Zac Flamig]

The tree damage in Norman is extensive. A lot of trees are basically disintegrating under the ice. With brief periods of having rain continuing off and on the ice is adding up on the trees and grass around the city. Sidewalks and roadways remain largely unfrozen.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

We still have power as of 0945cst.. just had a downpour of heavy freezing rain... temp. aprox. 27F. An average of 3/4 to 1" of ice accumulation. My maple in my front yard is starting to get really weighted down... most other trees look pretty coated as well, but I haven't any broken branches. As I said, we still have power as do the rest of Piedmont.

Going through some of the data initially, it looks like once we can get past midnight tonight, that is when we should rise above freezing and melting can commence. Between now and then, I'm expecting another 2/3 of an inch of ice ontil this band of precip. can move to the north.

I just talked to my sister who lives 8mi. NE of Owasso, OK. she said its devastating up there, large branches down, a couple unfortunately on her car. She has a VERY LARGE cottonwood that I have pleaded with her to have removed because its very close to the west side of the house, it too has lost several branches but thankfully has missed her roof. They have been without power since 0100.

No use in me complaining anymore about this storm... nothing I can do about it, except get out the camera and take a few pictures. Attitude is 90% on how you deal with what life dishes out... I think my good attitude is around here somewhere.

Rocky&family

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm pondering making the drive down to St Joe soon and shooting the event from there. I just hate the worry the night or two in a motel will be a waste if that location gets only enough ice to make the roads un-driveable(not hard in that hilly terrain I don't imagine). Then I'd have to wait till they got better to drive into the worst areas anyway. I also don't want to wait till it is over and not be able to get to the ice soon enough thanks to warming temps or crap roads between here and there. Hmmmm. Will most likely head on down today.

I am also concerned on the stupid models warming things like they do. I did not believe them last time and I found myself being very wrong, lol. There's a couple big differences this time around though. One, the air is colder this time and two, the biggest factor, the low level warm advection will want to be weaker(no 70
+ knot llj this time) and also be veering as it goes, and not plowing straight north. So again, though a bit more warranted this time, I don't think warming will be quite as strong as the models want(which even if they were right, there's still a small strip in nw MO/ne KS that stay near/sub freezing most of this). GFS has KC at/near 35 during the heaviest precip. NAM is actually pretty similar. Guess one just has to go and find out.

 

[Jeff Smith]

I lost power in Verdigris about 5:30am. Huge green flash from my back yard. I have approx. 50 trees on my 1 acre lot and as of daybreak it looks like most have sustained major damage. No damage to the house, though.....yet. I would say that we have 1" of ice buildup on trees & powerlines. Area bridges were very slick and catching motorists off guard on the way to work in Tulsa. I'm w/ Rocky, still trying to find my good attitude.....