• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

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    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Winter Storm/Blizzard 4/4-4/6

Joined
Mar 18, 2009
Messages
36
Location
Omaha, NE
Been on the mdoels for Days. Anywhere in the State of Nebraska and SOuth dakota could see a major winter storm this weekend
 
Watching this one with intense interest here in NE Nebraska, NW Iowa and SE South Dakota.

GFS and NAM show agreement on a strong low pressure system which should have plenty of available moisture and definately a great deal of wind. With cold air in place, this has a high probability of creating full-on blizzard conditions over much of Nebraska, Northwest Iowa, South Dakota and even southern Minnesota.

Exact snowfall estimates will probably be in the 6 to 14 inch rain in the heaviest snowfall vicinities, with significant blowing and drifting of snow. Extremely impressive winds will create hazardous visibilities. Omaha WFO indicates 850mb winds to 60knots (79 MPH) with this system. Not sure how much of that will translate to the surface, good guess would be 45-55 MPH winds at this point.

My concerns:

1) Will convection rob this system of moisture.
2) Will it take a farther north track then indicated
3) Will thundersnow enhance this even further.

A lot to look at in the next few days.
 
i too have been watching this storm for the last several days. after watching one major blizzard go south of here(Pratt, KS 28" of snow for christ's sake!!), and another one go north of here with alot of n.dak/s.dak receiving 6-20" of snow and 50 mph winds, it's looking like this one might target nebraska and into iowa. of course the last 2 also were targeted for my area too before the models shifted and eventually the storm track did too. the ironic thing is that i am leaving town this weekend for northern s. dakota, so i won't be able to experience whatever happens here in eastern nebraska this weekend:mad: it still looks like some snow up that way, but not the potential that there is down here. i will say this, the system looks very impressive with a vertically stacked closed low crossing northern kansas, and impressive qpf forecasted. like it was mentioned in another post, the 850 winds will be howling so if any part of that gets down to the surface it will easily be blizzard conditions once the rain switches to snow sometime late sunday morning depending on how much warm air gets wrapped into the system. maybe i can tell my wife and my parents who we're visiting, that we're going to come another time;)
 
Could be a long weather day for some if they want to make it so. One could go to the symposium in Lincoln for most of the day and drop south or southwest not terribly far for some possible cold core storms(who knows how great though) then drift back north for thunder snow ops.

I personally am hoping for a good thunder snow chase more than anything else and figure it's quite possible Saturday night not far from home. Still a fair difference in NAM GFS tracks with NAM further north.

GFS has been rather consistent in blowing up some heavy precip on the nw side of the sfc low after dark Saturday night. Whoever is just into the snow line at the onset of that should get hammered with monster flakes and thunder snow. Guessing somewhere around Tekamah or West Point. But the snow line moves quickly southeast. My hope is a south trend to get that into Omaha by late evening. Then try and get some CG in snow. Tried that last fall with an early system. Thing was the far majority of the CG activity was out by Grand Island. Hope is for a similar setup but that activity being closer to Omaha this time. Of course it was highly annoying trying to shoot longer exposures in snow/sleet. Gotta be a way.

Both models show strong winds moving in by Sunday morning. NAM even showing some of the higher shading.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta72hr_sfc_mslp.gif

40mph gusts are sort of boring. Hopefully we can muster something much greater than that.

FWIW that open flat area along I29 in western IA north of Omaha south of Sioux City can be pretty fun in high wind snow events. Just find an east/west highway or road even with the fields. Got a dusting once a few months ago now but gusts to 60mph and at times you just could not see 1 vehicle length away. All with probably under 1 inch of snow. I keep wanting to see what 60mph would be like in some of those areas with more snow.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=oax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
That area shows up real well on the topo image on there if you uncheck highways and radar. Open and flat as a pancake there.

HPC Discussion of the models for this one:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009

VALID 12Z SUN APR 05 2009 - 12Z THU APR 09 2009

RECENT ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A RATHER DEEP ERN
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE WRN CONUS AT A SLOWER
RATE THAN FORECAST BY RECENT GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE.
PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH THE SLOWER MAJORITY IN LIGHT OF THE
AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE UPCOMING PATTERN AND THE RELATIVELY GOOD
CONTINUITY DISPLAYED BY NON-GFS BASED SOLUTIONS ONCE THEY PICKED
UP ON THE IDEA OF SLOWER PROGRESSION TWO DAYS AGO.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif


Edit: Damn, 18z NAM hammering ne NE... http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
 
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Will be going to the symposium as well. Thinking about 3-5" for the Omaha Metro area, more likey 4 or 5". Any southward shift would pummel omaha. Theirs always that hope as the system may still be offshore a bit
 
While there is no doubt a large system is going to bring blizzard conditions to Nebraska this weekend, I have some real doubts about the massive snowfall amounts and don't understand how the models are generating so much snow based upon the forecasted QPF:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/9gewbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/9hewbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/9iewbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/9jewbg.gif

The last winter storm that was set to impact our area was predicted to have .75 to work with, which the forecasters put at 12-15" of snow. The actual QPF came in at about 1/3 that, and we got 4-5" of snow. Even if this system gets the predicted .5" of QPF, that would only be a max. of 8-10" of snow (using the same ratios). Significant, but not the killer amounts the NAM is predicting. It also wouldn't surprise me if the predicted QPF goes down more between now and the storm's arrival. I must be missing something here.

Still, even that much snow would not be anything to sneeze at (pun unintended). What is not in doubt is that whatever snow falls is going to be blown by some hellacious winds and visability should be no picnic, even after the storm passes. There could be some impressive drifting.

The North Platte office is confident that their entire CWS is going to be affected and GID is chomping at the bit to declare a blizzard warning for at least their NW counties. OMA will be the last to be affected, but they appear ready to sound the blizzard warnings for Sat. night/Sun. morning for at least their northern CWA. The latest NAM has pushed the big snowfall totals west of what it was last night, to the northern LBF counties.
 
FSD has pulled the trigger on a Blizzard WARNING for some southern areas of it's county warning area of responsibility. This includes:

Sioux City, Iowa
Vermillion, SD
Yankton, SD

The prediction is for 9 to 14 inches of snow with winds to 40 MPH. Models have remained consistent with this - looks like it will be quite a storm!
 
Guess my hopes for a home chase are slowly going out the window. Looks more and more like the pivot point that gets the most in eastern NE will be somewhere between Yankton and Norfolk. Somewhere around there should be less affected by the dryslot and back in the cold early enough to get some of the convection lifting north as snow.

12z runs a bit weaker with things than the 0z but that tends to happen with 12z vs 0z(though I never remember which way usually). Either way looks like a nice snow storm. On the fence of making a chase out of it or not. Need to at least be able to get 50-60mph gusts, otherwise....blah. I'd also rather get those in a flatter region.

NAM forecasted snow totals

GFS forecasted snow totals(not updated till around noon or so central time)
 
The storm you guys are talking about just finished with my area. The total snow fall was around 5" and the winds were not an issue at all. The strange thing is that only an inch or two was expected and the chances were very slim.

Im sure once the storm passes east of the rockies it will tap into that gulf moisture and strengthen quite a bit like all storms typically do.

Hope you guys get what you want.....

-gerrit
 
Not positive (maybe somebody who has time to check can chime in here) but in a Forecast Discussion I saw that the system was split (north and south components) and will recombine over the plains. If so, strictly speaking, Idaho got a portion of the wallop we'll get on this side of the Rockies.

The models continue to push the big snow fall farther north and west. Looks like upper NW Nebraska and SW SD are in line for the lion's share of the snow. Looks to me like temps are going to be too high along the I80 corridor to add up to much accumulation and the majority of the moisture should be rain here. (jinx!)
 
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Precip Type

Looks like there's going to be quite the sharp rain/snow line across central NE that could significantly alter snow amounts for areas like North Platte, Broken Bow up to O'Neill, maybe the Ainsworth area. But northwest of there, very heavy snow accumulation and blizzard conditions. AFD from western NE talking about 6-12" of snow expected with winds gusting over 50 mph. Should be a nice day tomorrow in that part of the state!
 
This is shaping up to be a pretty impressive snowstorm/blizzard from SW South Dakota/ NW Nebraska and eastward from there the next 2 days. NAM and GFS are spitting out an area of 8-14 inches of snow along the border of SD and NE to IA and MN border area along with strong gusty winds. I think an area of 15+ inches is not out of the question but it would be hard to measure that with the strong winds.
 
Blizzard Watches in NW Iowa now being upgraded to Blizzard Warnings by Sioux Falls. Now watching to see the decisions being made by Omaha and Des Moines. Regardless of what a Weather Forecast Office decides to warn with, this is going to be a doozie of a snow and wind event.

I'm going to call 9 to 11 inches of snowfall in a nice swath from northeast nebraska to northwest iowa to the Iowa/Minnesota Border. Winds will be very significant, and it shouldn't take much effort to bring winds to 35-45 MPH gusts, if not a little higher. Omaha looks likely to pull the warnings on their watch as well.

HAVE LEFT HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW AND WILL ALLOW MID CREW TO
DIGEST INCOMING MODEL DATA. BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CWA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
 
Winter storm in Iowa Sunday

A strong early spring storm system will bring heavy snowfall to the eastern and central Iowa starting Sunday morning. Precipitation will start as rain with a few thunderstorms after 11 PM tonight. Precipitation will change to snow by daybreak in central Iowa; and in eastern Iowa, a transition to sleet will take place between 8 and 9 AM followed by a change to snow by 11 AM. Periods of heavy snowfall will be likely Sunday afternoon, including a “thundersnow stormâ€￾ or two, which will bring very heavy localized snowfall rates to isolated areas. The other story will be wind, which will gust out of the north to 35 mph, resulting in blowing and drifting. Snow will taper off from west to east Sunday evening.

Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Rain and thunderstorms after 12:30 AM tonight, sleet after 7:30 AM Sunday, and snow after 9:30 AM Sunday. Total sleet and snowfall: 3.6 inches.

Iowa City, IA:
Rain and thunderstorms after 12 AM tonight, sleet after 9:15 AM Sunday, and snow after 11:30 AM Sunday. Total sleet and snowfall: 2.5 inches.

North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Rain and thunderstorms after 12:45 AM tonight, sleet after 7:15 AM Sunday, and snow after 8:45 AM Sunday. Total snowfall: 5.7 inches.

Marengo, IA:
Rain and thunderstorms after 11:45 PM CDT tonight, sleet after 8:45 AM Sunday, and snow after 10:45 AM Sunday. Total sleet and snowfall: 4.5 inches.

Union, IA:
Rain and thunderstorms start at 11 PM tonight, and change to snow after 6:30 AM Sunday. Total snowfall: 4.5 inches.

Discussion:
A strong H85 low will track from near Concordia KS into extreme SERN IA and into CNTRL IL over the next 24 hours. Numerous factors are coming together for a heavy snowfall event. FCST instability suggests thundersnow in areas, resulting in enormous aggregate snowflake production and locally enhanced snowfall rates. Convective snowfall will result in localized precipitation amounts of two or three times that FCST by any guidance. Thermal profiles and moisture advection Sunday will support a period of heavy sleet as warm air is advected into the H8-H7 layer from the S per mid-morning FCST soundings. After 18Z flow in this layer will switch around the E and then NE resulting in cooling.

Strong E and NE LLVL flow in the north half of the system will affect the evolution of precipitation, so that models will fail to have a handle on small-scale details of QPF and temperature structure until the onset of frozen precipitation Sunday morning. Model initialization of moisture and wind fields at 00Z is adequate, supporting use of the NAM and ECMWF along with some inputs of the GFS for forcing fields. Limited moisture return in the warm sector will limit significant precipitation there, allowing for increased moisture available north of the SFC/H85 storm track. Dry air aloft will allow for enhanced evaporative cooling for increased instability aloft. On Sunday, strong isentropic upglide is noted along 290-305 SFCs over a thermally-induced deformation zone will produce temperature profiles supportive of heavy sleet in ECNTRL IA along and 20 miles either side of US-30. Internal gravity waves will aid in transfer of a 45 kt H925 LLJ to the SFC. An axis of strong mid-level lift will slide from CNTRL into ERN IA from 15Z to 21Z. The system will be slow to exit the area as it begins an occlusion process after 00Z.

- Bill
10:02 PM CDT, 04/04/09
 
I chased the blizzard up in Neligh NE. Got some night photos there. They got around 9 inches of snow. I was surprised to see the 10 inch report from back closer to home in Tekamah so I looked up the storm total precip estimates on the NWS's radar. Nice 2 inch liquid stripe from east of Columbus up through Tekamah. So took that route back home. N-S highways...fine. E-W highways really bad. Was bad as I went east on 91 from 81. Wet or dry roads would constantly turn into deep rutted roads from blowing/drifting snow. The hills were getting the best of many as they'd come over into crap and go off into the ditch.

2009_04_05_2077.jpg


Road was closed east of Snyder as the plows tried to dig out a big drift, so I went back west of town to shoot an area of blowing snow on highway 91 from a gravel road. Soon as I stop I see a semi coming, so I flip the telephoto on as fast as I could hoping to shoot him as he entered this area of crap roads. Soon as he goes by he starts to jackknife. He soon recovered, but just barely.

2009_04_05_2156.jpg


The closure east of Snyder. Check out those power lines. I couldn't believe the snow was still sticking to them. A massive thud to my roof while parked under some trees down there explained to me why it wasn't blowing off.

2009_04_05_2142.jpg


This is off the back of a street/highway sign. The snow kept caking itself on horizontally and at some point it got incased in a layer of fairly thick ice. Usually you get freezing rain and then snow. Guessing as this band rotated north it went from snow to freezing rain. Seemed a bit thick to just be wet snow freezing in that layer like that. Cool however that did that. The snow is so caked in there you could barely dig your fingers into it. This is obviously the same thing happening on those now very fat power lines overhead, helping them act like sails in the wind.

2009_04_05_2239.jpg


Snow drifting off a hill west of Tekamah NE.

For as wet as the snow was, it was still able to blow...obviously. The drift I waited forever for them to open was about 5 feet deep over the highway there. It was hard to get many stills of in the line of cars as we drove through there.

A bunch more later at some point.
 
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