Kevin Bowman
EF4
Chicago probably will, the cold and snowy pattern dosent look like its going to break anytime soon
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Will We Have a White Christmas?
- Thread starter mikegeukes
- Start date
Joel Wright
EF5
The temp rose to 37 here yesterday evening for several hours, and then slowly sank to below freezing predawn this morning. We lost an inch or two of snowpack. With possible freezing rain, or even regular rain mid week our chances seem a little less certain as of now..
Snowdepth currently about 5 inches, down from 7-8 a few days ago....
David Draun
EF5
Same here! :lol:
Mike Kay
EF0
White Christmases are not always a guarantee in Canada. In fact, if you're on the West Coast, the chances are definitely not good!
Chance of a white Christmas among selected cities in Canada:
Victoria, BC - 11%
Vancouver, BC - 11%
Kelowna, BC - 69%
Edmonton, AB - 88%
Calgary, AB - 59%
Saskatoon, SK - 98%
Regina, SK - 91%
Winnipeg, MB - 98%
Thunder Bay, ON - 100%
Toronto, ON - 57%
Windsor, ON (just across the border from Detroit) - 41%
Ottawa, ON - 83%
Montreal, QC - 80%
Quebec City, QC - 100%
Halifax, NS - 59%
St. John's, NL - 65%
Fredericton, NB - 85%
Whitehorse, YT - 100%
Yellowknife, NT - 100%
Source: http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/media/xmas/prob_e.html
Note that only four listed above have a 100% chance of a white Christmas. Note the really low chances in Vancouver and Victoria.
Alberta winters are generally dry - and very variable. Calgary's chances are a lot lower due to chinooks, the powerful winds that can raise temps by quite a great deal within 24 hours. The Bow Valley, where the town of Banff lies, actually acts as a kind of wind tunnel aimed right at the Calgary area.
Edmonton has had a snowless, or "brown" Christmas at least once during the 20th Century, the most recent which was in 1998. Snowless Christmases have occured as far north as Grande Prairie, about 465 km NW of Edmonton - just north of the 55th Parallel, or about as far north as Ketchikan in the Alaska Panhandle.
It was up to 54°F (12°C) yesterday in Edmonton. Only less than a week ago, it was down to -13°F (-25°C) and -22°F (-30°C) at Edmonton International Airport about 22 miles (35 km) south of downtown Edmonton.
It's currently about 45°F (7°C).
I do not usually use the weather station at the international airport for the source of local weather info. This is due to the distance and temperature differences due to the urban heat island effect over the city of Edmonton (pop. 712,391 in city proper). I use the City Centre Airport (formerly Municipal Airport) instead, since I live just a few kms south of that airport.
Joel Wright
EF5
Well things have become very interesting around my area.
We had 5-7" of snow on the ground until yesterday, when it began to finally warm up. Today we're well into the 40's, and the snow has melted down to just a slushy few inches...
Things were looking pretty grim for a white Christmas earlier, as rain was forecasted for Christmas eve. Well, the latest computer models seem to agree on a relatively strong trowel setting up over the area Christmas eve afternoon and night. The NWS now forecasts 3-4" of fresh (wet) snow by tomorrow night. It's definitely a tricky forecast though, as the trowel is very narrow and any shift in where it sets up could make a big difference. Not to mention how quickly the changeover to snow really transpires. It will be interesting to watch nevertheless!
It would be nice to get some fresh new snow just in time for Christmas! :wink:
Robert Dewey
EF5
That would really suck to go from Thanksgiving to Christmas and have enough snow to qualify for a "White Christmas", only for it to all melt off in the last few days. This is the longest "pre-season" snowpack that I can remember for this area, and it looks like we will still have a few inches for Christmas.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Hard to tell here anymore.. thought it was a good bet a week ago when like Joel, I had 6 inches on the ground. But today's high temp hit 49, and we only have a trace of snow on the ground now. But, the forecast calls for snow overnite Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.Jeff Lawson
EF3
That's pretty much what happened here. A few sad little patches remained in the shade this afternoon, but I assume tonight's rain will wash the rest of it away. We might get a brief burst of wet snow tomorrow morning, but I'm not holding my breath.
Robert Dewey
EF5
The models are jumping around with the Christmas Day system. The NAM suggests all rain with QPF of 1.00 to 1.25 inches (and higher) along a narrow axis from southeastern lower MI through IN... While the GFS also has a QPF stripe (also 1.00 to 1.25 inches and higher) a bit further north. Even though the GFS is a bit further north, the profile is below 0C and would support snow... While the NAM is *clearly* rain.
Depending on when the "White Christmas" observation is taken, it could either be a white Christmas or a wet Christmas.
The GFS shows 850MB barely hitting -3C... Not really all that good for snow growth. BUT, if the heavy precipitation rates pan out - a cooler profile would be possible. The NAM is usually the winner when it comes to predicting thermal profiles though - but I do have to give the GFS credit for being very consistent with this system. As of now, I would call for 2 to 3 inches of snow mixed with some rain on Christmas Day... But I could see that quickly changing to either 1) alot more snow, or 2) heavy rainfall and flooding (due to the frozen ground and 4 inch snowpack with 1 inch equivalent water). Interesting to say the least.
Andrew Khan
EF5
The chances for a white Christmas here, in extreme NE Tennessee are looking fairly slim. But the GFS is showing light freezing precipitation on Christmas night.....so, yeah.rdale
EF5
I can't see there being any accums in SE Mich on Sunday. Profile too warm, ground will be warm, snowpack will be gone, and QPF overdone on GFS. Other than that I like it ;>
Robert Dewey
EF5
Probably, but I'm still holding hope. I don't see this 4 inches on the ground leaving in the next 24-36 hours (considering it's already below freezing again right now, so it will have to rethaw).
As for QPF... The NAM and GFS are both nearly identical with QPF amounts - where it sets up is probably the more important question. FWIW, the GEM also sets up a narrow strip of 16-24MM amounts, while the FSL RUC also has >1.00 amounts. Again... I think the location is the bigger question.
As for the profile... The models all have their own opinions. But, you can't deny that if precipitation is falling at a rapid rate (let's just say there is a nice convective band that sets up), that it won't cool the profile a degree or two (and thus give somebody some snow).
Again, I wouldn't exactly put out a winter storm watch or forecast more than 2-3 inches - but all I'm saying is I wouldn't be completely caught off guard if someone within a narrow axis gets "heavier" snow.
EDIT: Just checked the time-height xsection for KPTK and it shows a rapidly crashing 0C isotherm... Dropping about 100MB in just a couple hours after F42 to nearly 950MB... That still gives me *some* hope, and I really think this is way too complicated to just say "yep, all rain" or "yep, snowfall accumulations"... But you, Rob Dale, as a broadcast meteorologist HAVE to make a forecast! :lol:
Joel Wright
EF5
Wow, why did I have to open my big mouth? Unfortunately for me, the computer models have pushed the storm much further south, leaving us with light rain with maybe a few fat flakes mixed in at the very end. The trowel is much further south now, along with the colder air aloft.
The snow is still melting even as I speak, in fact I can see quite a bit of grass out there lol.
Man, I could sure go for a big blockbuster snowstorm. These wimpy, pathetic, moisture starved sissy systems are getting a little long in the tooth..
Robert Dewey
EF5
The FSL RUC brings the 0C 850MB isotherm pretty far south at 03Z this evening... Alot further south than any of the other models. The band of heavy QPF is also still present on the NAM and GFS - Though NCEP did note that the NAM is way too weak with things...
Wondering what the 12Z runs will show. Either way, I'm happy with things so far this winter, already above normal
I do agree with Joel though, I really need alot more than a 6-8 inch snowfall to get too excited about - which is all we have seen thus far (but the winter is only a couple days old!). But, for most of the midwest I wouldn't call ALL of these storms moisture starved. A couple of feet in MN a week ago or so isn't too shabby. :wink:
Joel Wright
EF5
No white Christmas afterall. The NWS still insists there's 2" of snow on the ground officially, and the Moline office is only five miles to my west. So officially we had a white Christmas. I've driven all around the Quad Cities the last few days, and there's not anywhere close to 2", so I'm not sure how they're coming up with that figure. All that's left are crusty piles and slushy drifts.
Our 3-4" snow forecasted for Christmas eve yielded fog and sprinkles. I failed to see one flake! This was one tough system to forecast.
On the flip side, it is kind of nice to see the grass once again I guess. :wink:Similar threads
