Will there be an EF5 tornado this year

[STurner]

I tend to wonder if there will be an EF5 tornado this year for they are extremely rare events. It takes a lot to support an EF5 rating because of construction practices, what was damaged and what was not, and how fast was the tornado moving etc. Now I do know that duration of a tornado should not affect the rating but some surveyors do take this into consideration and I dont blame them. If it does happen will it happen it most likely will be in April or May and be probably in the plain states. Does anybody have any comments to when and where it might occur if it does happen. Also how has everybodys year been so far.

 

[Shane Adams]

There's no possible way to determine when an F5 tornado will occur. However FWIW, I'd lay my money on east of the Mississippi so far this year.

My 2009 has been absolute sh*t, exactly as I predicted through this point in time (technically not; tornado-warned cell with rapidly rotating wallcloud 2-10 and severe storm with the largest hail of the day just south of us Monday.....but I'm a tornado chaser so.....). But the expected heavy rains in the central TX Plains have me very excited; this is the best news (as far as the Plains' chase season) we've had in months. If this week's model outlook comes to pass, I think the tides could start to turn more in our favor.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

There's no possible way to determine when an F5 tornado will occur. However FWIW, I'd lay my money on east of the Mississippi so far this year.

My 2009 has been absolute sh*t, exactly as I predicted through this point in time (technically not; tornado-warned cell with rapidly rotating wallcloud 2-10 and severe storm with the largest hail of the day just south of us Monday.....but I'm a tornado chaser so.....). But the expected heavy rains in the central TX Plains have me very excited; this is the best news (as far as the Plains' chase season) we've had in months. If this week's model outlook comes to pass, I think the tides could start to turn more in our favor.

I was on the Lone Grove storm, so my 2009 has been great

I have already received over 2 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, with many more expected over the next few days. Like you said, our season is looking better and better with each drop that hits our dry ground.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Does anybody have any comments to when and where it might occur if it does happen.

Oh, that's an easy one. The new TOR forecast model forecasts an EF5 to occur on May 27th near Olathe, KS, but the model has been wrong before.

I think the odds are against an EF5 tornado occuring this year, but you never know.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Oh, that's an easy one. The new TOR forecast model forecasts an EF5 to occur on May 27th near Olathe, KS, but the model has been wrong before.

LOL! Wealthy Johnson County, KS is way overdue for a strong to violent tornado.

I'd say odds are stacked against seeing another EF-5 tornado tornado this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a handful of EF-4's. I'd give my forecast of this about a 30 percent chance of it verifying 10 percent.

 

[STurner]

LOL! Wealthy Johnson County, KS is way overdue for a strong to violent tornado.

I'd say odds are stacked against seeing another EF-5 tornado tornado this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a handful of EF-4's. I'd give my forecast of this about a 30 percent chance of it verifying 10 percent.

I know what you mean we are overdue for a violent tornado. The Ruskin Heights F5 tornado on May 20, 1957 passed through parts of Johnson County. This tornado was over a half-mile wide and on the ground for at least 40 miles. During this time there was very little in Johnson County, Kansas but today it would be catastrophic. Thinking about a half-mile wide EF5 tornado carving a 40 mile length path through Johnson County would be unthinkable but it could happen. Even though the Hallam, Nebraska tornado was not quite as intense, it would be just as scary to have a 2.5 mile-wide EF4 tornado to come through here.