Will $5+ / Gallon Gas Keep You From Chasing?

[Bill Tabor]

Ok, I'm hearing some really good ideas / points here that allows chasers to keep on chasing like always. I'll try and summarize what we have so far:

1) Downgrading to a smaller more fuel efficient car perhaps doubling the mileage could completely offset a doubling of gas prices.
2) Chaser car pooling is a fast, dirty way to always keep chase gas expenses low.
3) More elaborate chase equipment / data nowadays helps pinpoint storms and type of storms to reduce extraneous non productive chasing.
4) Better quality forecasts by the individual chaser and by the SPC helps pinpoint storms and type of storms to reduce extraneous non productive chasing.
5) Good vehicle practices such as proper tire inflation, slowing down the driving speed a bit, having a clean air filter, or perhaps something like a K&N filter can improve gas mileage.

Additional observation: For many it is hobby / vacation - which typically can be expensive and many plan on taking those regardless, though I assume the overall downturn in the economy and jobs may have a bigger effect than just gas prices.

Commentary: For myself, I think it could cause me to cut back a bit, but most likely only on really long chase distance and frequency like Texas to North Dakota. I think I'd still easily do Texas to Nebraska if it was a worthwhile system, perhaps multiple day and it would certainly be a bonus to try and use some of the above techniques to keep it cheaper. However, I should point out that as gas moves to $5 / gallon gas or even longer term $4 gas that could stall the US economic recovery and send us back into recession / depression. If the recovery stalls out, and revenues drop - I worry that we could even lose world reserve currency status due to our money policies. Other countries don't really like that they have invested in US bond market and we are constantly weakening the dollar QE0, QE1, QE2, (QE3?) and exporting inflation globally. If we lose world reserve currency status then expect a deep depression. If not, but gas prices go high and slow the recovery expect more job losses. Bottom line in my opinion, those last 2 scenarios would have a big effect on how much a chaser chases and distance they travel. I.e. if they don't have a job then no money to chase at all. Let's hope and pray it never comes to that and soon we see a robust recovery for the US and the world. Let the good times roll. Positive bonus caveat: If the economy does go into a deeper recession or depression at least that should help the chase convergence issues we experienced last year such as with Vortex2 in the field, at least for the few who could then still afford to chase.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

The last few years I have done mostly local chasing (Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin), along with one 4-5 day trip to the plains if the pattern looks conducive for multiple tornado days. In 2009 I did June 15-18, and in 2010 I did May 21-24 outside of my "local" territory. The only exception to this being May 10 last year which was my only non-solo chase.

Given the massive uptick in traffic and related issues surrounding chasing in the southern plains, I feel my days of chasing in Oklahoma and Texas are essentially over. I get no joy from chasing and having to worry more about the 200 other cars on the same road more than keeping tabs on what is going on in the sky. May 10, 2010 was my first time in Oklahoma since May 2008, and it will probably take me another May 10 type event to get me down there again. I am MORE than happy with waiting until late-May or June to chase slower moving, CAPE bombs in the northern plains, and photogenic beauties on the high plains.

Anyway, the car I drove the last few years got about 28mpg on the highway, and the car I have now gets about 38mpg. If I really need to offset the change in gas prices beyond my improved mpg, I'll sleep in my car for one night, but I don't foresee that as a problem.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I don't plan on changing much of anything as far as whether or not I chase. Luckily, I get 30 mpg on the highway with my car so I can manage it, especially if I am able to carpool with some people on spot chases earlier in the season to split costs. What will be affected come May will be overnighting...I think the back of my vehicle and I will become fast friends this season.

As far as the economy / crude oil / gas price extravaganza, there are a number of potential scenarios.

In the short term: Crude oil closed Friday at close to $104 a barrel, meaning it has broken resistance at $100. The next logical step will be for it to test $112, per the market technicians. Calculations done by an independent outfit (so take it fwiw) back during the 2008 price spike said that $100 a barrel should equate to a gas price of around $3.30 a gallon, before any regional effects / gouging, etc. Proportionally, $112 a barrel oil would take that up to near $3.70 a gallon minimum. No way to know if $112 will hold if that is indeed where the price heads.

Medium term: There really are two sides to the issue. If prices were to rise to levels such that the economic recovery would be stalled or reversed, it would open up the possibility of a "double dip" in the markets and a potential true depression. At the same time, many argue that prices AOA $4.00/gallon are unsustainable in the short to medium term if there is a consumer pullback. Remember 2008: We went from a nationwide average over $4.00 to a nationwide average under $1.50 when the global economy deteriorated and demand destructed. The same could easily happen again, and it could be more dramatic than the first time around. If that were to occur, prices would indeed be much lower by the time the dust cleared. The bad news is that enough people would be screwed in the process that even gas at those lower prices would still likely be unaffordable to many people.

Long term: Finding alternative sources remains essential, and it does apply to chasing. We will hit peak oil soon, if we haven't yet, and China's growing economy will only exacerbate the situation. IMO, if we want to keep chasing in the way we've chased when the economy finally does recover significantly, we need to have other options on the table.

 

[Patrick Martin]

High gas prices won't slow me down at all. My chase vehicle gets 48-52 mpg. Even if gas prices increase $1 a gallon, that only equates to an extra $100 for every 5,000 miles I chase. The mileage I get really takes the sting out of high gas prices.

Bryan

This brings up an interesting point. If you look at the math, I think it proves why $5 gas won't slow to many people down. If you chase a 1,000 miles in a vehicle that get's say 20mpg on average (assuming an SUV type vehicle), you burn approx 50 gallons. If gas doubles from $2.50 to $5, those 50 gallons only cost an additional $125 (50x2.50). With that being the case, and I have no doubt some will disagree, but IMO if that amount shuts you down, I'd say that person probably could not afford it at $2.50/gallon to begin with and should already have been home saving their pennies.

And BTW, fuel effeicient does not have to equal small and cramped. My 05 Accord sips gas, has plenty of room, XM radio, is plenty comfy, has been completely issue free for 92k miles, and will get 35-38mpg on an extended hwy trip, and at worst upper 20's in full on chase mode.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Another thing to look at with $4 - $5 gas. If it does get that high it will affect everything from food to clothes....increased transportation cost for pretty much everything. Not only would it put the squeeze on fuel costs, but pretty much everyday life, which could affect the disposable income people have in order to chase. Companies have to raise prices of products to cover the additional expense, people aren't spending because they have to allocate a larger portion for fuel, Companies have to lay people off because they can't get their product moving because the costs are so high.

It could get ugly all around if it raises to that level and stays that way for a while.

 

[Dan Robinson]

With a finite chase budget, a doubling in gas prices will halve my available miles this season. Like Scott, I have almost entirely written off the Plains this year due to the traffic crisis, high gas prices or not. On days with secondary targets closer to home, gas prices will make me lean toward choosing the closer target. There were a few days last year where a storm 50 miles from home produced while I was 200 miles away cap busting. Everything has a way of working out, so I usually just go with the flow and enjoy whatever I can get. Overspending, using credit or working multiple jobs to finance chasing isn't worth the sacrifice, in my opinion - it's OK to just chase within your means and just be happy you can get out there.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm largely in the same boat as Scott Weberpal. Fighting chaser traffic and rising gas prices will likely only put a damper on the amount of back-and-forth that I do. Storm chasing to me is largely about the serenity of being out in the open, away from civilization. While there certainly is nothing like watching a supercell in the high plains, I mostly chased the mid-west last year and did just fine. I got more satisfaction out of viewing a couple tornadoes in southern Wisconsin in late July when I was essentially "alone" by 2010 chase crowd standards than I did fighting the crowds at close range to a significant tornado on an Oklahoma high risk event.

My plan will be tweaked from taking several week long trips out to the plains, and largely chasing alone in the years prior to 2008, to chasing the midwest harder, where I can still enjoy a storm "alone", and then pairing up with other chasers when I do head out. I really prefer chasing solo, but if gas does hit $4 during the peak of the season, chasing with one or two other people in the vehicle when you're doing long distance chases has to become a no-brainer. During the May 10th 2010 event we piled 4 people into a Ford Focus which essentially ended up costing each of us about $30 in gas to do a one day marathon chase from Illinois to Oklahoma, and back.

I also plan on camping, when possible this year. In addition, several people who prefer having a hotel room each night after a chase have offered to let me crash on their hotel room floor if we're in the same area. To be honest, when chasing on the budget of a college student it's the $70-100 a night for a hotel that makes the biggest difference. Eliminating that cost buys me 2 full tanks of gas, which in my car is good for another 700+ miles. Eliminating staying in a hotel for ONE night, buys me another one or two (perhaps more) days of chasing! In addition to trying to save on gas money, see where else you can eliminate excess spending which will in turn put more gas in your tank.

So, this post was kind of jumbled - but I don't plan on chasing a lot less in 2011, just changing the way I do it. Chase the local area the same amount (of course, this is all Mother Nature dependent!), and my trips to the plains will likely occur during the late season on the high plains, maybe for 2-5 days at a time with a few other local chasers while eliminating hotel costs.

In 2011, I think the affect gas costs will have on people will be affected greatly by what regions end up being active. If the midwest ends up having a fairly active season, this will obviously cut down on the amount of times that I'm pulled towards the plains. Probably the most fun spring / summer that I've had was in 2008 when gas prices were over $4/gallon, simply because I had so much success in the local region that I only made two separate 2-3 day trips to the plains. The most expensive year gas wise thus far was my most successful by chasing smart and picking and choosing, rather than just chasing the plains to chase the plains.

For example, I drove nearly 1,000 miles to see this supercell in Kansas in May 2008: http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5215/5450152200_e992de905a_b.jpg

Exactly one week later, I drove an hour away from home and chased this supercell in western Illinois: http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5139/5426825038_03d4178d05_b.jpg

Extremely similar storms, only one cost me hundreds less in a year with $4 gas, by looking carefully and picking the closer target. The higher publicized target was a significant bust on the day that the local photo was captured.

Dan Robinson mentioned in the "nina chasing zones" thread that on big plains outbreak days, there is often a warm front component that goes un-chased in the midwest. Folks in Denver have experienced this as well, but there have been several times where I've been chasing the plains only to have significant events occur in the Mid-Mississippi Valley close to home. Hitting these days will be key with higher gas prices. Another advantage to chasing in the midwest is the extended season. Rather than feeling pressured into taking that boom or bust borderline day in the plains during the peak of the season, I can rest a little easier knowing that once the ridge sets in over the central plains NW flow events will continue to be common at close range.

Okay, I'm done editing this novel.

 

[Bill Tabor]

With a finite chase budget, a doubling in gas prices will halve my available miles this season. Like Scott, I have almost entirely written off the Plains this year due to the traffic crisis, high gas prices or not. On days with secondary targets closer to home, gas prices will make me lean toward choosing the closer target. There were a few days last year where a storm 50 miles from home produced while I was 200 miles away cap busting. Everything has a way of working out, so I usually just go with the flow and enjoy whatever I can get. Overspending, using credit or working multiple jobs to finance chasing isn't worth the sacrifice, in my opinion - it's OK to just chase within your means and just be happy you can get out there.

I hear you Dan, I was out on some of those monster chaser traffic jam days in OK also, but on the other hand I was also on a lot of storms with few chasers. I think one key is don't go to the first storm of the day, and in particular don't go to the one that gets the first tornado warning. Also to minimize convergence issues minimize your amount of chasing high risks, and weekends, and in Oklahoma. It helps to forecast and know that another area will break out later or downstream of the original tornado warned cell. Chase a wisp that you know will become a huge supercell in a conducive environment. I know not always possible, but when you can pull it off you have the cell to yourself or at least just a few other chasers for awhile. Long tracked tornadic cells are the worst for convergence. Get on those early and break off for something better when it starts winding down. That's what I try to do. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Tim Moxon]

As UK chasers we already fork out to pay for a flight, car hire, money exchange and all the other expenses that go along with a trip abroad. Coupled with the fact that $5 a gallon is till half the price of English gas (or 'petrol' as we call it!) it still seems a bargain to us!

 

[Rob H]

We're just planning on going out with more people, since we only get about 18mpg. Most of my decision on what to chase this year will actually be due to the crowds. I was hoping it would be better with V2 off the roads and not drawing media attention, but the crowds on 2/27 already have me not wanting to chase higher risk targets in OK. If only those explosive dryline storms won't so fun..

 

[Michael Ratliff]

That is a good subject Robert ... But as the prices rise its safe to asumme all of the mommy and daddy moochers will be staying home ! Its also about risk taking...Pick an alternative target .. Sometimes the not so popular target could pay off in the end and avoid the Highschool Chase teams ... A good 4x4 is a good way to lose storm tag alongs IMO .. Thoughts ??

 

[James Siler]

My chasing has been in jepordy for other reasons but this is not going to make things easier. I want to chase as much as possiable but may be forced to stay extremly local. sigh.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I'm sure my mileage will go down significantly from last season with my move to Norman, but I don't plan on chasing less. The biggest hindrance will be time off from work. As far as gas prices, it's only money. I'll make some more.

 

[rdale]

You need to telecommute

 

[David Drummond]

I'm sure my mileage will go down significantly from last season with my move to Norman, but I don't plan on chasing less. The biggest hindrance will be time off from work. As far as gas prices, it's only money. I'll make some more.

With not having to travel down from the Arctic any more Ben, it's going to almost be like gas prices went DOWN for you!