Dave Lewison
EF1
It seems that in recent memory I can think of at least three hurricanes that looked very formidable right up until several hours before landfall, only to be knocked down a couple Saffir-Simpson categories upon actual landfall. Ivan, Dennis, & Katrina (thank goodness) come to mind, although I know there are others.
Does direction of movement play a role? All three of these storms had a dominant north component to their movement. Frances & Jeanne last year were west-movers and retained much of their strength a full day before landfall. I've heard that a northward movement implies a trough is to the west of the storm, increasing the liklihood of shear and/or dry air entrainment.
Or is it more a factor that these three storms were all making landfall on a continental landmass, where there is a larger pool of dry air, plus the fact that half of the storm is over land before landfall actually occurs. (Don't know if S. FL is considered a continental landmass, since it's much smaller & flatter...similar to an island).
Thoughts on this phenomenon? Can anyone think of storm examples where intensity was maintained right up to landfall on a northward-moving storm (i.e., Camille)?
Does direction of movement play a role? All three of these storms had a dominant north component to their movement. Frances & Jeanne last year were west-movers and retained much of their strength a full day before landfall. I've heard that a northward movement implies a trough is to the west of the storm, increasing the liklihood of shear and/or dry air entrainment.
Or is it more a factor that these three storms were all making landfall on a continental landmass, where there is a larger pool of dry air, plus the fact that half of the storm is over land before landfall actually occurs. (Don't know if S. FL is considered a continental landmass, since it's much smaller & flatter...similar to an island).
Thoughts on this phenomenon? Can anyone think of storm examples where intensity was maintained right up to landfall on a northward-moving storm (i.e., Camille)?