Where would you start from, today, near Denver?

[Carol Sidofsky]

Since I'm still learning, and I appreciate this forum a lot, I thought I'd get your opinions on chasing today:

The NWS out of Boulder, CO says there's a strong warm cap aloft, but that if any storms do break through that cap, they could become severe quickly.

They think a boundary will set up from "near Denver" along the I-70 corridor, to Limon, CO.

Do you Colorado chasers think it would be more productive to start by driving east on I-70, and watch what the storms do as they develop, and follow them, since the NWS predicts the storms will move NE from that boundary?

Or, do you think it could be OK to go NE on I-76, and then head east from Lochbuie or Hudson, or keep going on I-76?

The only shelter (from big hail) I know of, either way, is at covered gas stations. I'm more familiar with going up I-76, but would be willing to chance (no pun intended on "Last Chance", CO) going east on I-70 (which is usually more crowded than I-76 is).

Thanks in advance!

Carol Sidofsky
970-531-5000 (cell)
[email protected]

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

Does "anvilling" mean the cap was broken?

We drove up to Hudson, CO (in Weld County) via I-76, arriving around 5 pm.

We saw some congesting cumuli, some anvilling (but not ultra high up), some turbulent/chaotic looking mammatocumulous clouds (like an artist gone wild), right overhead in Hudson, and some interesting looking constantly changing dark scud clouds, but we weren't sure if any of this meant that the cap was definitely broken. Was it? I thought yes, but hubby thought no.

Around 7 pm, it looked like things were maybe developing (congesting cumulus getting taller & stronger looking) northeast of Hudson, in a storm that appeared on NWS radar to be heading NE towards Sterling.

We called off following storms, since we aren't knowledgable enough to chase at night.

Did anyone else see anything interesting, in Weld County, etc., Saturday?

Carol and Dave
970-531-5000

 

[Mark Blue]

Hey Carol it appears none of your questions were answered and I apologize for that. We were driving back on I-76 yesterday after having chased for several days in a row and from what I observed coming back everything seemed to be pretty high based (we weren't in chase mode yesterday). Granted this was only what I observed from I-76, but it would seem the LCLs were kind of high yesterday in northeast Colorado and there wasn't much in the way of forcing either.

I'm certainly not the expert compared to guys like Verne Carlson, Tony Laubach and Roger Hill, but it seems to me that when it comes to chasing locally you usually have three options. One is to set up along the Palmer Divide and wait for the cumulus to boil up there. The same thing is true further north along the Cheyenne ridge where storms will form due to upslope flow and then move east of there into SE WY and the panhandle of NE. The last play is storms that form along the front range and then move into NE CO on their trip out east. Usually you have to choose one of the three areas based on your best educated guess, then once you're there watch for towering Cu around the area, observe 1 km satellite data and have a radar program set on Composite Reflectivity and go after what looks best. Last but not least have a Delorme Gazetteer atlas for Colorado so you can navigate well as the roads in eastern CO aren't super abundant. This is by no means meant to solve all of your chase problems, but is a basic strategy I use when I head out.

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

Thanks much, Mark! Great info and advice!

A couple more questions:

Do you think that if there is any anvilling at all, which we did see some of, that the cap was broken, in those cases?

I guessed "yes, cap was broken, as shown by anvilling", but don't know if my guess was right or not.

Also, can you give me a link, that would let me see the 1 km satellite data, in at least as much detail as Boulder's NWS Composite Reflectivity loop shows?

I'll check on that "Delorme Gazetteer atlas for Colorado" that you recommended:

I don't think I can afford a laptop program (yet) that would combine NWS radar loops with street & road numbers/names & towns (or, is there an inexpensive program that does that?).

Also, the delay of about 10 minutes of the Boulder NWS radar composite reflectivity loop (where the last of the ten radar pictures seems to be lagging behind the present, by about 10 minutes I think), sometimes confuses me, in trying to see where storms are right now, in real time. If they are slow movers, it's not as confusing.

We also forgot to bring our compass, so had to use looking at I-76 and looking at some east-west roads, along with a Colorado road map, to figure out directions!

Thanks again!

Carol
970-531-5000
[email protected]

 

[Mark Blue]

Carol,

Here's a link for the 1 km higher resolution satellite data (lower left hand link) I mentioned as well as other tools you could probably use:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/

You could even look into a monthly subscription to Weathertap at www.weathertap.com and have most everything you would need to get started.

It looked to me yesterday that the cumulus towers were getting through the cap, it just seemed as though the updrafts weren't able to sustain themselves in order to produce supercells that would eventually produce tornadoes or land spouts. Again we were just driving back from our chasecation from the previous week and that's what I observed.

If you can afford GRLevel 3 (Gibson Ridge Software) it would do about everything you mentioned, especially since you can get add ons in the form of place files to show roads and so forth. I don't know if I'd trust the road systems in GRL3 from a place file, but if you have a paper atlas (Delorme Gazetteer) to supplement the road network in GRL3 then you should be okay. You could also look into getting a software program that does mapping and one that includes a GPS puck and then use that to show your position via GPS on GRL3 relative to the storm.

I know I'm throwing a lot at you so if you have any questions just ask and I'll try to help as well as hopefully the other forum members.

Thanks,
Mark

 

[MatthewCarman]

Carol, GRLevel 3 is only $80 and you have it for life. I used to be against GRLevel3 and a few people convinced me that it was so cheap I should try it and I like it a lot. You may have to pay more $ if you want a private feed for GRLevel3 instead of using the free one provided by the NWS but it is worth it. You can even get software ad ons such as a street map where you can zoom in to your town and see every street or a SPC outlook add on or even a lightning detection ad on. I don't think these cost money but I could be wrong.

There is also GRLevel2 and several other programs such as Weathertap, Threat Net, Storm Lab, Swift etc that you could look into for radar programs or you could ask someone to do "NOW" casting. That is where a friend calls you and tells you where the best storms will be and gives you directions.

You can get a GARMIN or TOMTOM I think for $300-$400 for a road atlas.

 

[Shane Adams]

You can get a GARMIN or TOMTOM I think for $300-$400 for a road atlas.

Or just get a Road Atlas for $6.99

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Hi Carol,

Two suggestions from another CO chaser...

1) The 10-min lag you mention in the NWS radar, it can happen on any of the other radar software as well. It's quite common actually, from my experience with GRLevel3 anyway. Learn to anticipate storm movement rather than rely solely on "real time" radar. In reality, especially as someone seemingly new to chasing, we want to avoid putting ourselves in a location where we'd rely on real time storm position/movement anyway. Always leave yourself a buffer, AND an out-route if things get nasty.

2) The Delorme Gazateer you mention is worth every penny of the $20 or so it will cost you. You can definitely go with an Atlas like Shane suggests as well. I like the gazateers personally, but I like the better details. My reason for liking paper maps over the computer...I can make NOTES. If I find a road that looks good on paper, but turns to mush when it rains...I can make note of it on the paper map so I know to avoid it next time. Same strategy goes for lesser known roads which are paved or in good condition. Heck, I even make note on the pages where I find a great vantage point, wildlife, or even farmers I talk with during a chase (you never know when you'll need a hand!).

Lastly, I saw you mention hail shelter in one of your posts. Again, my suggestion, give yourself enough of a buffer you don't need to worry about it. If there's one thing I love about most storms in CO since moving out here, high precipitation monsters can be rare. Most of the time you can see the action you want without putting yourself in the path of the precip/hail core, and you avoid the need for shelter this way, especially as you learn to understand the structure/storm motion relative to your position.

Just a quick $0.02 from a fellow CO chaser

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Hi Carol (and Dave),

If there were anvils, then the CAP was likely broken. The CAP resides around the 700mb level, which is in the neighborhood of 10,000ft MSL. Since most of NE Colorado is around 5,000ft in elevation, this means the CAP is roughly 5,000ft AGL (above ground level).

Anvils form once strong updrafts reach the tropopause, which is a boundary layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere. At this point, rising air no longer cools, so it stops rising and begins to spread out laterally forming an anvil. In the central U.S., the tropopause can often be found at approximately 35,000ft, although the exact altitude constantly fluctuates.

I also highly recommend the Delorme Atlas and Gazetteer. It is a great paper map and a good way to get started. And even of you eventually go with a laptop-based mapping application, such as Microsoft Street & Trips, it's always good to have a solid paper map as a back-up in case your computer fails. I would not spend $300 on a Garmin or Tom Tom.

As for radar, as Matthew and Mark have mentioned, GR Level 3 by Gibson Ridge ($80 one-time fee) is an excellent application, but you must be able to receive data on the road to use it. If you're not ready to spend money on data plans (which run from $35-$65 a month), then you can also look at Radarscope ($9.99 one-time fee) if you have an iPhone. Another alternative is to find a wi-fi hotspot somewhere in a town to get periodic updates. While a constant flow of data and radar feeds are great, don't get lulled into thinking that you absolutely need these things to chase. There is a lot that you can experience by just keeping your eyes on the sky. During my first year of chasing, I used nothing but my eyes (and learned a lot). Then I used Radarscope on my iPhone during my second year of chasing. And it wasn't until this year, my 3rd year of chasing, that I started using all the bells and whistles, such as GR Level 3 and a host of other goodies. I'm a firm believer in learning the ropes the old-fashioned way (with your eyes) before moving on to all the high-tech gadgets.

This may answer some of your questions relating to equipment, but perhaps not everything regarding what you saw that day. Please feel free to ask more questions and we'll do our best to help!

Bryan

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

Thank you all for good advice, and answers!

Mark: Thanks again! I went looking for trouble again today, solo (Dave went fishin' at the Buttes, north of us), but I couldn't find it. I drove out east on I-70 in late afternoon, and as the sky became clearer & bluer, I gave up and turned back around at Watkins. I actually saw a congesting cumulus try to anvil, and not be able to break the cap, and end up spreading out in a squashed/pancake fashion! That was educational!

Then, I followed your advice & bought a Delorme Colorado Gazetteer (their last Colorado one!) at a Barnes & Noble bookstore, across from Colorado Mills shopping center, only to find out later that Dave had 2 of the very same items by Delorme, at home (but may not be as up to date as my new 2009 one).

I clicked on your link--http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ which was very interesting. Can the speed be adjusted, to slow down the cloud development loops? Can the images be magnified? (or enlarged by "zooming" in)?

I'll eventually think about the Gibson Ridge Level 3 software. Again, thank you!
______________________

Matthew: Thank you! I'll eventually think about the GRLevel 3, as you and Mark both recommend it. What is a "SPC outlook add on"? How is Level 2 different from Level 3?

It would be great to have someone call me to do that "NOW" casting, but I don't know any chasers well enough, who could or would do that. Can't afford Garmin or TomTom, at this point, but I still appreciate all your advice!
___________________________

Shane: Thank you! Well, I already bought the Delorme Gazetteer (cost about $20), on Sun. evening. For future reference, who makes that road atlas, that you like, for $6.99?
_________________________

Tim: Thank you for your excellent advice!

1) More practice may help with anticipating storm movement! I still tend to think storms are either closer or farther away than they actually are. I also need practice in seeing what direction they're going in. I like your advice about leaving a buffer and an out-route!

2) Not sure about the difference between an atlas & a gazetteer, but I did get the Delorme Gazatteer earlier today (Sun.) I agree about making notes on maps! One map we have is partly held together with scotch tape, and has notes on it. I liked your ideas about notes on vantage points, wildlife, & from talking with locals along the way!

3) Good advice about avoiding big hail, rather than thinking a gas station roof would prevent damage. I'm still learning about the structure & motion of storms.

Thanks again!
______________________

Bryan: Thank you!

You wrote:

"If there were anvils, then the CAP was likely broken. The CAP resides around the 700mb level, which is in the neighborhood of 10,000ft MSL. Since most of NE Colorado is around 5,000ft in elevation, this means the CAP is roughly 5,000ft AGL (above ground level)."

Thanks for that info! I called NWS Sun. afternoon, before I saw your reply, and their meteorologist said that anvilling did indicate breaking the cap. Thanks also for clarifying the difference between MSL (does this mean "above" mean sea level?), and AGL.

You wrote:

"As for radar, as Matthew and Mark have mentioned, GR Level 3 by Gibson Ridge ($80 one-time fee) is an excellent application, but you must be able to receive data on the road to use it. If you're not ready to spend money on data plans (which run from $35-$65 a month), then you can also look at Radarscope ($9.99 one-time fee) if you have an iPhone."

I do have a Verizon broadband card, so I could receive data, if I was on an interstate, (I'm on a month to month Verizon non-plan ($60/month)), but can't afford the data plans, and also don't have an iPhone, so I will probably not get the GR Level 3 by Gibson Ridge, at this time.

You also wrote the following excellent advice:

"Another alternative is to find a wi-fi hotspot somewhere in a town to get periodic updates. While a constant flow of data and radar feeds are great, don't get lulled into thinking that you absolutely need these things to chase. There is a lot that you can experience by just keeping your eyes on the sky. During my first year of chasing, I used nothing but my eyes (and learned a lot). Then I used Radarscope on my iPhone during my second year of chasing. And it wasn't until this year, my 3rd year of chasing, that I started using all the bells and whistles, such as GR Level 3 and a host of other goodies. I'm a firm believer in learning the ropes the old-fashioned way (with your eyes) before moving on to all the high-tech gadgets. "

I agree with your good advice about learning the old-fashioned way, with my eyes! If I don't rush, and if I take it slowly but surely, I can also prevent burn-out.

I appreciate your help, and the help from all of you on this forum!

By the way, I was lucky to see a brief but bright, orange/yellow glowing meteor, flying south to north, while driving with Dave on Berthoud Pass, late Saturday night. It broke into 2 glowing pieces, with one piece flying ahead of the other at the same speed, and then both pieces quickly burned up and disappeared (and I was sober!).

Carol (and Dave)
970-531-5000
[email protected]

 

[Mark Blue]

Carol,

Question: I clicked on your link--http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ which was very interesting. Can the speed be adjusted, to slow down the cloud development loops? Can the images be magnified? (or enlarged by "zooming" in)?

Answer: There are controls on the left hand pane for the 1 km satellite images when you click a location on the map and then "animate" the image. The controls allow you to slow it down among other things like "dwelling" on the first or last image.

If you play around with clicking the links on that main page I referenced under "Radar Images" you can definitely get different types of radar products like velocity and reflectivity, but zooming in isn't a feature that is available.

If you were to get a monthly subscription to Weathertap you would have all of the tools you would need to successfully launch your chasing career into high gear including the ability to zoom with Radar Lab HD. I think it's like $7 or $8 a month, which you could have for 2 or 3 months a year if money is a concern.

The only thing I didn't understand was your comment about having a data card through Verizon. You called it a "non plan" which I'm not sure I know what that is. Please clarify what kind of service you have so we know whether or not you would have the ability to access data through your Verizon service.

Thanks,
Mark

 

[Matthew Grzych]

We drove up to Hudson, CO (in Weld County) via I-76, arriving around 5 pm.

We saw some congesting cumuli, some anvilling (but not ultra high up), some turbulent/chaotic looking mammatocumulous clouds (like an artist gone wild), right overhead in Hudson, and some interesting looking constantly changing dark scud clouds, but we weren't sure if any of this meant that the cap was definitely broken. Was it? I thought yes, but hubby thought no.

Around 7 pm, it looked like things were maybe developing (congesting cumulus getting taller & stronger looking) northeast of Hudson, in a storm that appeared on NWS radar to be heading NE towards Sterling.

We called off following storms, since we aren't knowledgable enough to chase at night.

Did anyone else see anything interesting, in Weld County, etc., Saturday?

Carol and Dave
970-531-5000

Hello Carol. I'm a Colorado chaser and was out messing around on the 19th as well. I don't think the cap was truely broken on that day. What might have happened is that convection could have fired off of the mountains above the cap or some instability alot might have trigger elevated convection. Either way, those clouds were not rooted in the boundary layer. At first they looked like orphan anvils, but there was some hints of elevated updrafts way the heck up there... like at 500 mb. If the cap were to have truely broken, the cloud bases associated with the updrafts would have been much lower and more significant. I raced out ahead of the junk line towards Akron where surface obs looked great (mid 60 dewpoints) and I never did find a rooted updraft. There was just elevated convection.

If you see anvils that does not always mean the cap is broken. Storms can and do fire at elevations where their updrafts are rooted above the capping inversion. Also, often in Colorado we see storms firing on the mountains above the cap and storms do not survive once they move out onto the capped Plains. This happens often in the summer. You'll often see orphan anvils east of the Rockies.

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

Thanks, Mark, for answering my questions!

You also wrote:

"The only thing I didn't understand was your comment about having a data card through Verizon. You called it a "non plan" which I'm not sure I know what that is. Please clarify what kind of service you have so we know whether or not you would have the ability to access data through your Verizon service."

Oops--I should have said that with my Verizon broadband card, the service I have with Verizon, is a "month-to-month" NON-CONTRACT PLAN, which costs me $60/month, until I "cancel" the plan. I'm limited to 5 kilobites of data use, per month. I doubt I'll exceed that, because I don't do anything with music, nor movies (just email & NWS radar loops, & forcasts). The Verizon broadband card lets me get onto the internet, all along highways, with enough signal so far, that I can then take a look at NWS composite radar loops, etc.

I'm not sure what exactly was slow, on Tuesday---the broadband card accessing the internet, &/or, the radar map loops loading. I was pretty far out away from Denver, on I-76, and yes, waiting to finally see the radar loop, (plus getting gas) did cost me too much time.

My husband Dave said that he thinks I may have misunderstood something said on this forum, and that because I already can get onto the internet (by using my Verizon broadband card), that the GRLevel 3 might not cost me an additional monthly charge beyond that initial $80. Was Dave right?

________________________

Matthew,

Thank you for trying to explain more about anvils not meaning that the cap was actually broken. I need to learn more meteorological info, before I really understand it. Did you mean that the updrafting in those high based storms started happening, starting from above the cap?

I'll have to read more, & learn about boundary layers, orphan anvils, etc.

Carol Sidofsky
970-531-5000
[email protected]

 

[Mark Blue]

My husband Dave said that he thinks I may have misunderstood something said on this forum, and that because I already can get onto the internet (by using my Verizon broadband card), that the GRLevel 3 might not cost me an additional monthly charge beyond that initial $80. Was Dave right?

If you have access to the internet via your Verizon data card then GRL3 wouldn't cost you anything more other than the standard fee to purchase the product. Once you purchase the software product, the data is free to use from the NWS, unless you want to purchase a subscription to Allison House or Michigan Weather for fee based data feeds. They offer data products for GR (Gibson Ridge) among others for those who want to pay a premium for their data. If you're just getting started I would say the free data available from the NWS would work just fine as I used it for 2 or 3 years and it worked just fine.

I am surprised that you had some issues getting connected unless you were close to I-76. I usually have pretty good luck in eastern Colorado even away from the major roads. There is a product that helps with that though and it's called a cellular amplifier with external antenna. It definitely isn't necessary though and is really a nice to have as far as chase gear is concerned.