When Will The 1st big Snow Occur in NYC?

When Do You Think the 1st 6" Snow will Fall in NYC this Season?

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    27
As of this writing (2/25/07), NYC still has not seen it's first 6" snowfall. In fact, the snow total for the 2006-2007 season so far is only 4.6". This is quite an amazing stat since there have been record breaking snows as close as 90 miles away, including a 20" snowstorm here in Albany last week.

There is a storm system that is currently moving toward the tri-state area and this has 'some' potential to produce 6" snowfall but the models sure indicate more of a snow to freezing rain scenario to me. The NWS OKX is buying in to just about all snow and have several inches of accumulation. With modest vertical motion, a +00 warm layer at 850mb and a -1 to -2C temperature at the surface, there are tell tale signs that freezing rain will dominate and not snow. If my forecast pans out, it will be another icy mess for New Yorkers with quite a bit of freezing rain.

BTW...right now it looks as though those who selected next December 2007 for the 1st 6" snowfall just might be right on.
 
I buy the all snow scenario, maybe some sleet, and I think OKX gives a good reasoning behind their forecast.

They really blew the forecast on Valentines Day, everyone was forecasting a changeover and it never happened.

Edit: Current forecast for NYC is 4"-9" under a heavy snow warning.
 
Its time to revive this thread....again. NYC is under a winter storm watch with a potential for 6"+ on Friday.

It was 70 degrees in Central Park on Wednesday, 60's today.
 
I was just looking at the data. NAM ensembles gives the coastal NYC area 4" of snow and 1.78" of sleet. GFS gives the area 6" of snow 1.17" of sleet. Waiting to look at the latest FOUS, but the 06z FOUS has a warm layer at T5 that will undoubtedly translate the ptype to sleet and/or freezing rain, just like last time.

Right now I am a believer in the ETA's scenario and expect a 2-4" snowfall with a siginificant amount of additional sleet and freezing rain after. The models have a tendancy to overplay the cold air in the NYC area and frequently overdo the snowfall. Thus I am expecting even less snow in the immediate coastal areas and NYC than the models are indicating. (Did anyone notice the 21" of snow that the GFS is forecasting for White Plains??) Places in upstate NY and interior New England will see all snow from this. I am expecting 8-14" of snow here in Albany and that is conservative. There is the potential for locations in the Taconics, Berkshires and Catskills to see 18-24" of snow from this storm.

PS: This thread could very well be revived right on through the end of 2007 if this keeps up. LOL.
 
Looks like March 17th is the date. As of 10pm Central Park recorded 5.5" of snow (more like sleet). It sleeted for several hours after that so I am assuming they went over 6", either way, 5.5" rounds to 6.

In coastal CT we stayed all sleet with temps in the 20's. There was a brief period of freezing drizzle. The NWS nailed the forecast, and the winter of sleet storms lives on. I think there is about 6" on the ground here right now.
 
I was thinking the same thing. After a quick glance at the obs, it appears that no additional snow or sleet fell after 1am...just some freezing rain. Thus 5.5 (rounded to 6") is it.

Congratulations to Alexandre Aguiar, John Gnuechtel for being the closest guessers and winners of this contest. You win the purple banana.

Here in Albany we ended up with 14". Another large snowstorm just 2 days after we finally started to see the brown lawns!! Arghh.
 
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