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What will it do in 2009?

Randall Cooper

Randall Cooper

EF2
Joined
Dec 3, 2008
Messages
191
Location
St. Joseph, MO
With all this severe weather going on in December, I have just one question... What do you think will happen in 2009? Will it be another record breaking year with tornadoes, or will it be a disappointment? I'm interested to hear what you all think.
 
With no scientific background from my angle, all of what I say here is just my opinion, and my opinion only.

I think we will have to wait until winter gets going before we will know for sure. I know around here (Amarillo), when we have wet, snowy winters, the spring seems quite a bit more active than usual. Now, will we have a spring in the TX panhandle like 07? Maybe and maybe not. Last season around the TX panhandle, it was a pretty boring season, but of course the winter was a joke. We got 3 or 4 inches of snowfall all year, if that. All the action was up in KS.

I truly believe the winter this year around Amarillo will be fairly wet and snowy. Therefore, I'd imagine it will be fairly active leading up and into spring. Again, take this theory with a grain of salt, but I really believe the winter conditions can give hints to what the spring will be like.
 
Randall Cooper said:
With all this severe weather going on in December, I have just one question... What do you think will happen in 2009? Will it be another record breaking year with tornadoes, or will it be a disappointment? I'm interested to hear what you all think.
Click to expand...


Ask me again in July :D
 
I will risk it all and take Shane's comment to the next level and will get back to you in June, 2009. I may bite the bullet for it though.
 
I tend to accept the concept of the 7 year tornado cycle. It's not always accurate, but if one looks at the records and statistics over the last sixty-five years of tornado peak occurrences - the numbers are almost consistently rise and fall within that time span. This year is the year before the peak, so the coming year may be even more intense - if there is any truth/validity to this 'circadian rhythm' of tornadic occurrences.

But your question is ambiguous; what are you asking? Even wide speculation and the best computer forecast on the long-term have been wrong before. Computer forecasting is relatively new when one considers that modern meteorology is also a child of the past century. Really, the last sixty years is the point where forecasting has become relatively accurate. Just after the 1900's began, people didn't even talk about tornadoes - even though they were happening then as they are now. They spoke about it in low, quiet tones in much the same way that someone would if they were discussing pornography or scandalous behavior. And that was true at that time; the mere mention or thought of a tornado was too horrible to even consider just a mere eighty years ago.

As for what happens in 2009; who can say? I think if we see a large outbreak that begins in February - as it did this year - then I think that it may be safe to venture the thought that it will be another record-breaking year. One thing about computer models and forecasting; they are getting better at it every year as satellite, computers, and data collection get better and better.

I have not believed that global warning is the cause of these larger, more powerful outbreaks. I still reserve the right to believe that concept is somehow contrived and politically motivated. But after seeing a recent video of the rapidly-shrinking polar ice caps; one can only conclude that there is an undeniable element responsible for a rise on average ocean temperatures - but I refuse to accept the proposed reason/cause for it. There are many elements that can contribute to this happening, much larger than man has been able to affect. Hurricane's are a means for the atmosphere to equalize the extremes in temperatures between the equator and the polar regions - so it has been said. Since there have been more extreme hurricanes - and more of them on average over the last ten years - one would like to say that global warming is a fact. I would dispute the cause - not the evidence. For all we really know at this time, it can also be exacerbated by an abundance of solar light, heat, and radiation. So little is known about the effects of these factors, that kind of data has only been documented over the last forty years or so. Maybe the Earth's core is heating up as a response for large-scale solar ejecta/radiation trapped by our magnetic field.
Or maybe Bigfoot is real (lol!)...

Bottom line: Get a good viddy/still cam and get ready to film it!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Do we really know that 2008 has been a record year for tornadoes?

I know it's been a record year for tornado reports.
 
Jim Saueressig said:
Has anyone ever figured tornadoes into the solar cycle? We are just leaving the solar minimum and it supposedly runs an 11 year cycle.
Click to expand...

I think that would fall under the same lines as global warming.

Solar radiation effects weather mainly on a synoptic scale level and not on a mesoscale level. Since tornadoes are influenced primarily on conditions on a mesoscale level, so it's hard to correlate something like an increase or decrease in solar radiation with tornadoes.

I don't know if that makes any sense or is it correct. It's just my opinion.
 
A friend of mine saw a tornado in July that is not in the reports for that day. I figure they never reported it. I saw the pictures so I know she was not lying. I wonder how many tornadoes a year do not get reported? I think it is safe to say with the many tornado reports for this year this is a record breaking year or in the top 5. That could be due to more tornadoes being reported then previous years and more storm chasers.
 
We can all speculate on what kind of storm season next year will bring. One thing is to watch where the long wave trough sets up during the early spring time frame. If this trough tends to set up out in the western states there will be a lot of severe storm days, if it is in the eastern states there will be no severe days out in the plains. One thing you don't want to see is a late season cold period in the eastern U.S.
 
2009 analysis yet to be done...but hopeful.

Jim Leonard said:
We can all speculate on what kind of storm season next year will bring. One thing is to watch where the long wave trough sets up during the early spring time frame. If this trough tends to set up out in the western states there will be a lot of severe storm days, if it is in the eastern states there will be no severe days out in the plains. One thing you don't want to see is a late season cold period in the eastern U.S.
Click to expand...

Jim...I'm surprised you didn't comment on the tropical season outlook. I know that is my other focus for 2009.

I haven't started playing with my spreadsheets and charts yet. SPC has been doing some great stuff too on the chart and data sets along the lines that I use to play with. I do by into the cycle....but I don't see it as a stand 7 year cycle. I think of it more as a 6 and 10 year. It's kinda complicated...mostly because I haven't gone back far enough to add my theory to the data set.

I do believe in a balance of statistics. If there has been a dominate season for a few years, we'll see a break. If the northern areas of the plains were more active during one season, that it may shift further south...or maybe even way north. If the early part of the season is active, perhaps in the upcoming years the end of the season or year will be active. There are so many variables that it can get real complicated to predict some of the cycles, if they even exist.

On other mention, is about the Global Warming factor. I do believe in it to a degree. My point is that I don't the GW is the butterfly....I think GW affects will be not as extreme as predicted. Certainly GW won't have a huge affect on tornado stats for many more years to come....on the same front, I believe that for hurricanes.

All-in-all....I'm betting for a lack luster year.....because the gas is likely to be cheaper....it'll just be our luck that we won't need to drive much...because it'll be slow.
 
Last year we had tornadoes on January 6 across 5 states (including the EF3 in Wisconsin) and February 5 and others... I am starting to think that with the significant early season advances of cold air out of Canada (that have and/or are forecast to occur) all the way to and into the Gulf that a lack of quality moisture return may prevent much in the way of winter time / early season chase opps.
 
The only thing I've observed (and bought into) regarding the long-scale prediction of an overall severe storm season in the Plains, is a drought-type situation beginning in the previous Fall, and seeing how long it persists into the new year. In the Fall of 2005, the S Plains began a significant period of drought, and as early as December, I was hearing that some chasers were worried this would affect the coming storm season, due to a lack of quality "in place" moisture due to a lack of percip. As it turned out, 2006 was one of the worst Plains chase years in history. How much of that was a result of the severe drought, is anybody's guess.

But I really start paying attention around October if we've had no significant precip for a while, to see how the overall precip pattern plays out through March of the following year. Just something to help pass the days.

Also, the long-wave pattern Jim mentioned is probably the most basic parameter to watch; where the energy goes, the storms go.
 
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