What did I miss?

[Chad Ringley]

It's like the boy who cried wolf, SPC calls for Armageddon so many times as they have this year by issuing these moderate and high risks only to end up having them bust, people are going to stop paying attention to them. Hell they already ignore the watches that are issued now.

SPC's MDT verified. I'm sure there are duplicate reports in there, but 23 TORs, 125 Wind, and 122 Hail (for 270 total) is a verified MDT risk per SPC's parameters. So no, yesterday was not a busted forecast.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Joey, this is very true. I live Murfreesboro, TN and when that F4 we had hit on April 10, 2009, we had at least 35 injured, and 2 dead. People weren't paying attention that day, and if they were they were thinking nothing was going to happen. The SPC issued a SWS (Special Weather Statement) the night before, and even I hardly paid any attention, and only when the power flipped off and I heard the swoosh, did I grab my roommate across the hall and head for the bathroom underneath the stairs on the first level.

Had I been a little more alert, I most likely would have captured that F4 with my camera.

Complacency to perceived threats is the public's problem. In fact, I'd argue wasn't much more the SPC could do. They issue a PWO, have a 15% hatched tornado risk, and the burden on the public is to act on the information they are given.

I've seen studies conducted that discuss this complacency and it has been shown to be extremely high in the SE US, mainly because most events occur at night and aren't visible (due to a typical HP character and vegatation, in contrast to "classic" events in the Plains).

 

[Jason Boggs]

Joey, this is very true. I live Murfreesboro, TN and when that F4 we had hit on April 10, 2009, we had at least 35 injured, and 2 dead. People weren't paying attention that day, and if they were they were thinking nothing was going to happen. The SPC issued a SWS (Special Weather Statement) the night before, and even I hardly paid any attention, and only when the power flipped off and I heard the swoosh, did I grab my roommate across the hall and head for the bathroom underneath the stairs on the first level.

Had I been a little more alert, I most likely would have captured that F4 with my camera.

Andrew, you did what 90% of the public does. SPC issues warnings, but no attention is paid until they hear the "swoosh" and then it's too late. They come out of the rubble that was once their house and claim they had no warning.

To all you guys that are bashing the SPC: Stop paying attention to their forecasts. Issue your own outlooks and see how they pan out. It's that simple.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Andrew, you did what 90% of the public does. SPC issues warnings, but no attention is paid until they hear the "swoosh" and then it's too late. They come out of the rubble that was once their house and claim they had no warning.

To all you guys that are bashing the SPC: Stop paying attention to their forecasts. Issue your own outlooks and see how they pan out. It's that simple.

yep, I'm usually alert, but I had a late night of studying, and figured it was just some severe thunderstorms like usual, and so I didn't even get out of bed until 10:30. I spoke with my dad briefly on the phone (he's an avid weather fanatic) and asked if he was interested in some chasing, and he said he didn't see anything notable, and that it probably wouldn't do much. I then went up to play on the computer, and about 10 minutes later the power went out and I heard that noise. I didn't even have my weather scanner out of my storage tote and charged up. Only after I heard there was a tornado, did I get it out, and get myself into storm mode.

Sadly in Murfreesboro, there is 1 lousy tornado siren and it's over by Middle Tennessee State University, the area that got hit had no siren warning, but they should have been paying attention to the weather and the news.

I don't know what more can be done to make the public more alert, but most Southerners who aren't accustomed to these severe storms and tornadoes as the Midwesterners are, are pretty ignorant when it comes to heeding the warnings, and they paid the price for sure on April 10th.

The 2 people who died in Murfreesboro were an infant and a mother, and the infant died because the parents placed it in a car seat in the hall (they didn't have a basement, so they thought the hall was the best place to go).... Why on earth would anyone do that? The mother was killed, and the father was found 2 houses down the street with a broken back and a collapsed lung. He was sent to Vanderbilt Medical, and underwent surgery and survived.


I'm as guilty as anyone else, because I used to live in Missouri and I let my guard down after I moved to Tennessee, but lesson learned and won't be making that mistake again.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

It seems to me that quite a few people think the SPC's primary job is to cater to storm chasers or something and to accurately forecast tornadoes. To the contrary, the product they deliver is catered to local NWS forecast offices, local emergency management, and hopefully, local media, so the word gets out. And they forecast for ALL realms of severe weather.

When there is a high probability of all realms of severe weather, even if there are possible limiting factors such as a CAP, or too much cloud cover, or whatever, they'd be negligent not to air on the side of caution IMO.

Fore sure yesterdays MOD risk verified.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I don't know what more can be done to make the public more alert, but most Southerners who aren't accustomed to these severe storms and tornadoes as the Midwesterners are, are pretty ignorant when it comes to heeding the warnings, and they paid the price for sure on April 10th.

Would you say that your hypothesis is pretty accurate for that area? I read a NWS Service Assessment who mentioned something similar during the Super Tuesday Outbreak.

And yes, the MOD risk verified. There is no doubt based on the reports and the area that was covered.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Would you say that your hypothesis is pretty accurate for that area? I read a NWS Service Assessment who mentioned something similar during the Super Tuesday Outbreak.

And yes, the MOD risk verified. There is no doubt based on the reports and the area that was covered.

It's been shown in studies that folks in the SE US react slower and less frequently to things like tornado warnings, and its been attributed to a combination of a high frequency of nocturnal events and the inability to see the actual tornado (due to precip, vegatation, etc).

 

[Chad Ringley]

It seems to me that quite a few people think the SPC's primary job is to cater to storm chasers or something and to accurately forecast tornadoes. To the contrary, the product they deliver is catered to local NWS forecast offices, local emergency management, and hopefully, local media, so the word gets out. And they forecast for ALL realms of severe weather.

When there is a high probability of all realms of severe weather, even if there are possible limiting factors such as a CAP, or too much cloud cover, or whatever, they'd be negligent not to air on the side of caution IMO.

Fore sure yesterdays MOD risk verified.

1000% correct. I'm not sure where the perception that the SPC is the "Storm Chasing Prediction Center" actually got started. Personally I think it'd be neat for someone to produce forecasts tailored to the "chaseability" of an event (taking into account terrain, atmospheric visibility, storm motion, road network, etc.), but that has never been a thought in a convective forecaster's discussion/outlook.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Would you say that your hypothesis is pretty accurate for that area? I read a NWS Service Assessment who mentioned something similar during the Super Tuesday Outbreak.

And yes, the MOD risk verified. There is no doubt based on the reports and the area that was covered.

I would have to say it is pretty accurate.

The people aren't accustomed to that type of severe weather, and they think if something does happen in that area, that it won't happen to them.

I will say local media is and isn't to blame (if that makes any sense).

They had great coverage that day, but when it's just a little old thunderstorm, they cut in to all the programming and they spend hours covering it when nothing is happening. So the people in that region are just numb to it, and they end up ignoring it.

What I wonder is, what has changed in that region in the last 10 - 15 years in that region for it to become more tornadicly active and prone to supercell thunderstorm development?

Is it more intense Jet Stream fluctuation, pushing deeper cold fronts through the region? Is it the building of man made lakes which contribute to more water evaporation into the atmosphere and the build up of atmospheric moisture? or perhaps a combination of both? or other factors? Or perhaps just a pattern that occurs every 50 - 100 years?

I can tell you one thing, the people in Murfreesboro are still on edge after April 10th. We had some heavy thunderstorms come through 2 weeks ago, kids and mothers were freaking out at the store thinking another one was coming.

 

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

I agree that the MOD risk verified. The criteria for storm reports was met in the majority of the outlook area. I think a good point was made that these outlooks aren't tailored to chasers but toward the general public. I also believe that too many chasers are "taking score", so to speak. The SPC isn't looking at their storm report spreadsheet and attempting to meet some imaginary threshold. Actually, from what I'm seen over time OUN really under-reports their possible tornado sightings. i.e. the SPC report page for yesterday shows one when there were probably closer to 6 or 7(from local media video documentation). This happens all of the time and I'm sure not just in OUN.

At this point in history we're all still in a state of pursuit. Whether we're chasing storms or specifically tornadoes or knowledge of storm formation etc. Vortex 2 proves that. By the way, they never got onto a storm that produced yesterday, but tornado producing storms were all around them. Some would say that they failed, but that is short sighted. They called it a success. You have to consider the full logistics involved...team positioning etc. You have to consider the whole story. The SPC and the local NWS offices do a great job carrying out their mission. WARNING THE PUBLIC OF POSSIBLE OR IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I would have to say it is pretty accurate.

The people aren't accustomed to that type of severe weather, and they think if something does happen in that area, that it won't happen to them.

I will say local media is and isn't to blame (if that makes any sense).

They had great coverage that day, but when it's just a little old thunderstorm, they cut in to all the programming and they spend hours covering it when nothing is happening. So the people in that region are just numb to it, and they end up ignoring it.

What I wonder is, what has changed in that region in the last 10 - 15 years in that region for it to become more tornadicly active and prone to supercell thunderstorm development?

Is it more intense Jet Stream fluctuation, pushing deeper cold fronts through the region? Is it the building of man made lakes which contribute to more water evaporation into the atmosphere and the build up of atmospheric moisture? or perhaps a combination of both? or other factors? Or perhaps just a pattern that occurs every 50 - 100 years?

I can tell you one thing, the people in Murfreesboro are still on edge after April 10th. We had some heavy thunderstorms come through 2 weeks ago, kids and mothers were freaking out at the store thinking another one was coming.

Thanks. I was wondering about that. I wrote a paper on this a little while ago and was looking for more verification for my assumptions.

In response to your question about the tornadic storms in the Southeast, my first instinct is to scream global warming and then run around like a chicken with its head cut off, but then again that's my "id" speaking.

My rational side is telling me that you're on the right track there, with the patterns but my question is about the record of tornadoes and stereotype that severe weather has across the U.S. Typically severe weather is associated to the Plains. It's a very general thought in the general public. I get the feeling that such an attitude could have masked some of the movements for more spotters in the southeast as compared to the Plains areas. Our technology and observations have increased significantly in the past 10-15 years. There are a LOT more storm chasers than there were a while back. Don't forget the human element in noticing trends of the atmosphere!

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

SPC's MDT verified. I'm sure there are duplicate reports in there, but 23 TORs, 125 Wind, and 122 Hail (for 270 total) is a verified MDT risk per SPC's parameters. So no, yesterday was not a busted forecast.

Yah, especially given the wind/hail MDT. The 10% area for tornadoes warrants a SLGT in and of itself, and IIRC it verified yesterday ...

 

[Justin Wiley]

I'm pretty much in agreement with everybody that yesterday's moderate risk was appropriate and it did come to fruition. Like others have said, there was a moderate risk for severe weather, not tornadoes, even though we got some good ones and a decent amount of reports anyways.

I think I'd rather have the SPC err on the side of caution and slightly 'overdo' a forecast and have more people prepared for more than have them undervaluing a forecast and having people be surprised.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

The moderate risk verified, And suprisingly for the Oklahoma Target I believe the models nailed it right on as far as instability, winds, and precipitation breaking out. From what I gathered, Any Tornado chance for OK would be borderline KS/OK Models forecasted winds to drop off to a minimum anywhere south of Garfield County, I just dont understnad why I didnt trust my Forecast and I ended up down by Henessey,OK.

 

[mikegeukes]

Three risk categories (SLGT, MDT, and HIGH) are used to symbolize the coverage and intensity of the expected severe weather threat.

A SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers and/or low coverage. Depending on the size of the area, approximately 5-25 reports of ¾ inch of larger hail, and/or 5-25 wind events, and/or 1-5 tornadoes would be possible.

A MDT risk indicates a potential for a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms than the slight risk, and in most situations, greater magnitude of the severe weather. A HIGH risk area suggests a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with a high concentration of severe weather reports and an enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events occurring across a large area).

In a high risk, the potential exists for 20 or more tornadoes, some possibly F2 or stronger, or an extreme derecho potentially causing widespread wind damage and higher end wind gusts (80+ mph) that may result in structural damage.

A SEE TEXT label will be used for areas where a 5% probability of severe is forecast, but the coverage or intensity is not expected to be sufficient for a slight risk.

Read more:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_Otlk_Change_20060214.html

It is important not to rigidly associate the type of risk area (SLGT, MDT, HIGH) with the severe potential for any given thunderstorm in the risk area. That is, just because a SLGT risk is forecast does not necessarily mean that the thunderstorms within the risk area will be slightly severe. Sometimes, violent tornadoes occur in SLGT or MDT risk areas as opposed to HIGH. The reason for this is the synoptic situation producing the violent tornadoes may be confined to a relatively small area. Another SLGT risk area may cover several states in which only one or two tornadoes may develop. Some SLGT situations won't involve a threat of tornadoes or supercells, but sustained multicell storms with a threat for severe hail and wind damage. HIGH risk situations, which are rarely forecast, signifies that either an outbreak of tornadoes or extreme and widespread severe wind event is likely.

Other links:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mike