What did I miss?

[Jacob Ferden]

Could somebody please tell me what I missed with the storms in central-N central OK? I thought the instability was going to cause explosive development of storms, but questionable shear profiles were more conducive to big hailers that would quickly line out. What did I miss?

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Nothing. Once again it was a bust.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Sorry, I should have clarified...I was asking that like "What did I miss in my forecast?" I don't understand what allowed the Tonkawa, OK tornado, in particular. I didn't think the shear was going to allow for anything but large hailers.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

sorry Jacob, guess I just misunderstood what you were asking. These things are tricky sometimes, and they do things we don't understand, despite our best research and forecasting.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Sorry, I should have clarified...I was asking that like "What did I miss in my forecast?" I don't understand what allowed the Tonkawa, OK tornado, in particular. I didn't think the shear was going to allow for anything but large hailers.

Um, well then next time post it that way.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Um, well then next time post it that way.

Don't worry. Next time I have a question, I'll keep it to myself. Sometimes it's easier not to know...

 

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

Could somebody please tell me what I missed with the storms in central-N central OK? I thought the instability was going to cause explosive development of storms, but questionable shear profiles were more conducive to big hailers that would quickly line out. What did I miss?

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. It really looked like everything was going to go linear, but the storms managed to remain semi-discrete. It also seemed like the bulk shear wouldn't be sufficient to produce the kinds of tornadoes that we saw. The ones near Billings were pretty significant and there is video confirmation of a couple of really large tornadoes that passed near Apache. Andrew spoke correctly. It's an imperfect science.

P.S. I'm sure that Joey didn't mean to sound so anal in his replies. Don't stop asking questions.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Don't worry. Next time I have a question, I'll keep it to myself. Sometimes it's easier not to know...

It's ok. But really , you missed nothing today. It was yet again a typical bust for the SPC.. you know, they issue a MDT risk on a day that really was only a slight risk.

 

[Darin Brunin]

It's ok. But really , you missed nothing today. It was yet again a typical bust for the SPC.. you know, they issue a MDT risk on a day that really was only a slight risk.

You're a good guy Joey but you're really making yourself look like an ass right now. Put down the bottle and go to bed

 

[Jason Boggs]

It's ok. But really , you missed nothing today. It was yet again a typical bust for the SPC.. you know, they issue a MDT risk on a day that really was only a slight risk.

Joey, you're sure down hard on the SPC for some reason. Those guys and gals work hard every day. Sure, not all forecasts come out as planned, but most do.

Nothing against you, but come on man, lighten up.

 

[mikedeason]

It's ok. But really , you missed nothing today. It was yet again a typical bust for the SPC.. you know, they issue a MDT risk on a day that really was only a slight risk.

To Joey and any of you guys who are perpetually unhappy with SPC's outlooks, here's a novel idea: Quit even looking at SPC's information and just "live or die" by your own forecasts. Problem solved.

Oh, wait. That would mean you'd have no scapegoat except yourself when you bust. Easier to fix the blame for your failures on something external rather than admit to yourself you may have screwed up.

Remember, a moderate risk means a moderate *RISK* of SEVERE WEATHER, not a moderate guarantee of tornadoes. Understanding the difference here is key to getting over the hate some of you have developed for SPC's perceived failure to get you into the heart of the action.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

To Joey and any of you guys who are perpetually unhappy with SPC's outlooks, here's a novel idea: Quit even looking at SPC's information and just "live or die" by your own forecasts. Problem solved.

Oh, wait. That would mean you'd have no scapegoat except yourself when you bust. Easier to fix the blame for your failures on something external rather than admit to yourself you may have screwed up.

Remember, a moderate risk means a moderate *RISK* of SEVERE WEATHER, not a moderate guarantee of tornadoes. Understanding the difference here is key to getting over the hate some of you have developed for SPC's perceived failure to get you into the heart of the action.

I do my own forecasting, the problem is other people who go by them and then when nothing happens I get to hear them gripe about how yet again nothing happened. It seems to have been the case time and time again this year. You do realize that non-chasers look at SPC outlooks, right? I know several people who do, and most of those people have said the forecasters at SPC couldn't forecast a sunny day if they tried. It's like the boy who cried wolf, SPC calls for Armageddon so many times as they have this year by issuing these moderate and high risks only to end up having them bust, people are going to stop paying attention to them. Hell they already ignore the watches that are issued now.

 

[Robert Dewey]

You're a good guy Joey but you're really making yourself look like an ass right now. Put down the bottle and go to bed

It happens to us geeks that have to deal with technology and tech support all the time, LOL

 

[Joey Ketcham]

It happens to us geeks that have to deal with technology and tech support all the time, LOL

LOL, I think anyone who ever works in tech support will at some point be driven to drink. Yesterday was that day for me.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

I do my own forecasting, the problem is other people who go by them and then when nothing happens I get to hear them gripe about how yet again nothing happened. It seems to have been the case time and time again this year. You do realize that non-chasers look at SPC outlooks, right? I know several people who do, and most of those people have said the forecasters at SPC couldn't forecast a sunny day if they tried. It's like the boy who cried wolf, SPC calls for Armageddon so many times as they have this year by issuing these moderate and high risks only to end up having them bust, people are going to stop paying attention to them. Hell they already ignore the watches that are issued now.

Joey, this is very true. I live Murfreesboro, TN and when that F4 we had hit on April 10, 2009, we had at least 35 injured, and 2 dead. People weren't paying attention that day, and if they were they were thinking nothing was going to happen. The SPC issued a SWS (Special Weather Statement) the night before, and even I hardly paid any attention, and only when the power flipped off and I heard the swoosh, did I grab my roommate across the hall and head for the bathroom underneath the stairs on the first level.

Had I been a little more alert, I most likely would have captured that F4 with my camera.