warm thanksgiving maybe svr wx???

wow.....just glanced at Skillings Forecast for here on Wed-Thur-Fri-Sat

Wed - partly cloudy high of 62

Thur - Sunny high of 69!!!!

Fri - high of 57

Sat - high of 44

I expect something to happen Thur-Sat its unheard of to get up to near 70 on thanksgiving here in chicago, im about to check the models i know theres a storm system crashing in the northwest tonight or tomorrow so maybe some severe weather for the plains this week??? i hope the models support my theory......:crosses fingers: will post later after taking a good look :)
 
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Oh wow NWS has highs on 3 of the 4 days barely cracking 55 hmmmm that just shot a dagger through my heart still 4 days out for all i know it could snowing here
 
svr for the holiday

Although I never frown upon severe weather, I hate setups that seem to directly coincide with you driving the opposite direction from the action. But then again the end of this road is Turkey and ohh my god, I can't wait!

-So Hungry...
 
after looking i am not at all impressed, and i would never miss thankgiving dinner because if you know me i eat and eat and eat and it goes no where because i never gain a pound :D maybe ill get an early X-mas present this year and we can get a nice little outbreak up north.....:sigh: i dont like snow but its getting so bad i might chase snow flakes meh, maybe itll change
 
no svr wx but nearly record high temps

well the chance of svr wx is waning but at least well get a good warm up in chicago. We could experience a near record warmth this thanksgiving but a lot depends on the positioning and intensity of a strengthening low off the carolina coastline readings could push 60 degrees on wednesday and even exceed that on thursday....in 136 years of records for chicago, its only gotton up to 60 degrees 9 times on thanksgiving day. The record high was 69 degree back in 1966.

Two weather scenarios that could arise....

Cool scenario..... Low is expected to move out of the plains and if the strengthening low off the carolina coast moves northwest into the carolinas high pressure between the 2 systems will be squeezed, creating a weak southeast flow over chicago. This would result in cooling flow off of the 45 degree waters of lake michigan and result in a cooler than normal atmosphere.

Warm scenario....... Should the low stay out to sea off the carolina coast the high will drift east and warm southwest winds ahead of the the plains low will flow over chicago pushing readings into near record high territory

Im praying for the warm scenario because i usually put the X-mas decorations up on thanksgiving and id love to be wearing short sleeves while doing it!!!


Top 10 highest thanksgiving temperatures on record
1-1966-69
2-1914-64
3-1896-63
4-1913-63
5-1981-62
6-1973-61
7-1998-61
8-1879-60
9-1976-60
10-1988-59

im going to do some research and see what those winters provided for chicago maybe i can find some sort of pattern
 
You can't forecast a winter pattern based on one day's record temperatures... And don't forget - Thanksgiving is on a different date every year.
 
Looking too far out on the GFS (180-204h, as I said, too far out), it has shown a system with decent moisture return consistently for several runs now. It is far too early to speculate on any threat, but it is something I will be watching.
 
Yeah if the GFS is right we could have a cold core setup with the 998 Mb surface low in w KS and upper trough to the west. SPC's 4-8 day is slowing it down and moving it north as well.

This would be exactly one year to the date as last year's CC tornadoes that Darin, Dick and Scott C. caught in east-central KS. The setup looks similar although weaker at this point.
 
As it is now I'd chase the dryline on Tuesday, sc NE on south. I hope is stays somewhat similar to what it is now. That is a big change from just 24 hours ago as it slowed it down about a day. Looking pretty potent now.
 
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