Jason_Politte
EF2
This Virtual Chase Case is done in the style of the Tornado Forecasters Workbook by Tim Marshall and Tim Vasquez. Analyze the data and post your forecast along with a target town. This case may or may not be a day on which tornadoes occurred, and if you think it's a bust day, let that be known as well. An afternoon update will be provided tomorrow afternoon/evening and the solution will be revealed Sunday morning.
Also, if anyone knows or figures out which day this case represents, please do not reveal the answer. Thanks!
Have fun!
SPC Morning Outlook:
12z Maps:
12z surface obs
850 mb analysis
700 mb analysis
500 mb analysis
250 mb analysis
12z Soundings:
Aberdeen, SD
Rapid City,SD
Omaha, NE
North Platte, NE
Denver, CO
Topeka, KS
Dodge City, KS
Satellite:
National IR (sorry, no visible)
Radar:
12z Central Plains Radar Composite
12z Northern Plains Radar Composite
Also, if anyone knows or figures out which day this case represents, please do not reveal the answer. Thanks!
Have fun!
SPC Morning Outlook:
VALID 1500Z - 1200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW REJ Y26 30 NNE ATY 20 N STC 55 N IWD 15 WSW CMX 40 NNE GRB
30 E MSN 25 SE DBQ 20 S CID 25 WSW OTM 15 NE STJ 30 SE BIE
35 WNW CNK 45 NE HLC 20 SW BBW 15 S MHN 20 NNE AIA 35 W RAP
15 NW REJ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRP 30 W CLL
10 W TYR 20 SSW PBF 20 SW MEM 30 E JBR 15 ESE P02 40 NW P02
10 SW VIH 45 N SGF 25 W EMP 20 SSW END 55 NW ABI 45 NW DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF ROW
20 ENE CVS 25 SSE LBL 40 NE GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 W IML 30 E CYS
35 SW RWL 50 W MLF 50 ESE TPH 40 WNW BIH 35 ENE SAC 35 ESE MHS
40 N 4OM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W SSM MBL CGX
30 ENE LAF 25 ENE TOL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SE U.S.
...CENTRAL U.S...
WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NWD DURING THE DAY AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS N OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEB AND SD /GREATER THAN 8 C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER NEB ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AND E OF DEVELOPING LOW CENTER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA WITH STORM RELATIVE FLOW BEING FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE TO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD THIS AFTERNOON IN UPSLOPE FLOW N OF WARM FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL POOL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SD THIS EVENING.
...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL MCS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WE WILL MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/SRN IL/KY AND SRN INDIANA DURING THE DAY FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.
12z Maps:
12z surface obs
850 mb analysis
700 mb analysis
500 mb analysis
250 mb analysis
12z Soundings:
Aberdeen, SD
Rapid City,SD
Omaha, NE
North Platte, NE
Denver, CO
Topeka, KS
Dodge City, KS
Satellite:
National IR (sorry, no visible)
Radar:
12z Central Plains Radar Composite
12z Northern Plains Radar Composite