TS Patricia (EPAC)

[Josh Morgerman]

There's a new cyclone in the E Pac-- a few hundred miles S of the Baja Peninsula: Patricia. The latest intensity is 1003 mb/35 kt.

The models aren't terribly enthused about it, but the convection has increased dramatically overnight. The NHC's latest forecast brings the cyclone N to near Los Cabos with winds of 50 kt.

I don't expect much from this-- but I'm so jonesing for action I'm watching it like a hawk. Baja California is essentially my backyard, and it's easy for me to get down there on short notice-- and I already got lucky once down there this season.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The NHC's 2 am PDT forecast brings the cyclone to near Cabo San Lucas in 48 hr with winds of 50 kt. Mildly interesting situation.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Not chasing this one ... I fact, I'm done for 2009 (for TRYING to chase), basically.

This one I am sure will be torn apart by the SW shear (yeah ... 2009 goes hand over hand like "rock paper scizzors" with the word "shear").

Anyway, it's the 2nd blow from a 1-2 punch (Jimena being the first big one there in Baja).

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The convection has really blown up this morning, although the NHC seems unimpressed; they keep the intensity at 40 kt. The latest forecast brings it to near Los Cabos with winds of 55 kt in ~48 hr. However, Dr. Masters notes that a couple of the models brings it up to a hurricane.

It looks like an unlikely chase subject-- but I'm open to going after it if it strengthens more than anticipated. It's only a two-hour flight.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The latest microwave, infrared, and visible images are giving me the impression that this cyclone might exceed expectations just a tad.