TS Erin

[Matthew Crowther]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

 

[John Peters]

yesterday's HWRF depicts this becoming TS Erin briefly before landfall in south TX

 

[MClarkson]

12z GFDL drops pressure to 997mb before landfall. Dont have the HWRF yet. It is possible that we see a week tropical storm, but nothing particularly interesting.

 

[John Peters]

Latest HWRF doesn't even have it reaching trop storm before landfall.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Well the official word is in and it is "not quite".

BTW anyone have any info on why the Oil Platforms are now sharing their obs with us in the Gulf?

 

[Gene Moore]

12z GFDL drops pressure to 997mb before landfall. Dont have the HWRF yet. It is possible that we see a week tropical storm, but nothing particularly interesting.

For those that are looking for roaring tropical winds probably not interesting. It may become a tornado producer for southeast Texas though. Right now models show enough shear and instability to produce tornadoes. Also the predicted landfall and curvature match some other tornadic tropical systems I've seen.

gm

 

[Glenn Rivers]

TD 5

I just looked at the GOM IR for around 5:15 AM EST, and the convection is just f***ing rippin'. The whole thing looks rather symmetrical, and there are lots of cold cloud tops below -75 degrees C, esp near the center. This thing better blow ashore soon. it looks like it might deepen at mb per hour, not mb per day. Every extra hour over the GOM could count a lot!

 

[Gene Moore]

Morning runs look weaker with system, especially at 850 - 500 MB. If this trend continues the chances for tornadoes in the NE quad will be much less. System still producing large convective clusters in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Gawain Charlton-Perrin]

Tropical Storm Erin

I believe TD5 has just been named Tropical Storm Erin

 

[Angie Norris]

Yep, Erin was named at 1515Z, and is currently progged to make landfall tomorrow morning near Freeport, TX. With winds progged at 45 KT at landfall, doesn't look all that interesting.

 

[Terry Tyler]

where should i go to get some of the models yall are lookin at?

tropical weather forecasting is not my forte, but i know some of the basics...but, the only sites i use are the NHC website and CIMSS...im not too familiar with modeling sites for hurricanes...

could someone please provide me some links?

i appreciate it...

 

[rdale]

Boatloads listed in the top few threads here.

 

[John Peters]

where should i go to get some of the models yall are lookin at?

tropical weather forecasting is not my forte, but i know some of the basics...but, the only sites i use are the NHC website and CIMSS...im not too familiar with modeling sites for hurricanes...

could someone please provide me some links?

i appreciate it...

There are several good links listed in this thread
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=13475

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I keep a lot of the sites I use for hurricane forecasting on the Tropical Cyclone Page of my website http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/TropicalCyclonePage.html

 

[Terry Tyler]

i appreciate it...

apologize for getting off topic...