Tropical weather outlook changing times

[Mark Sudduth]

Figured someone would have posted about this already. Anyhow, for all of you hurricane fans out there, the good ole days of 5:30am, 11:30am, 5:30pm and 10:30pm are over.

Here is the full story.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo.shtml

 

[Jason Foster]

Changes don't seem too bad

Mark:

I don't think this will affect any of us intercepting a T.S. any better or any worse. I figure this is in response to what the public needs to see and to understand the NHC's forecasts better. And I'm always for what makes the center's forecaster happier, and perhaps more accurate.

I'm already thinking about this season, and hope it's better than the past two (well better for the Tropical chasers).

 

[HAltschule]

I'm thinking the record cold water temperatures that many areas of the Southeast are seeing (and maybe the TROATL..I haven't looked) may be an indicator of a quiter than normal tropical season. Especially if the Cold fronts continue to move so far south as they have been this late in the season. (By Florida standards the 30 degree air and cold front reaching Miami should be over with). Anyway...will be interesting to see.

 

[Jim Leonard]

The sst's over the atlantic basin are warmer than average over the eastern atlantc which is most important for an active season. The cooler than average over the western atlantic basin doesen't mean as much because by summer those areas are more than warm enough to support a category 3 or higher intensity. The eastern atlantc being warmer is critical because east of longitude 45w the disturbances coming off west Africa will be moving across 80 degree sst's. The seasurface temperatures east of longitude 30w don't reach 80 degrees until late spring or early summer. Whereas the sst's over the western atlantic west of 60w are usually above 83 degrees by August. Also sst's are only a small part of the tropical cyclone puzzle.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.20.2008.gif

 

[Robert Speta]

I like this idea to even out the work load. It'll allow the forecasters to see more and maybe add some more detail to there forecast otherwise were not able to do before.
We all know the pain of forecasting hurricane tracks.

Jim to note on your post I think the bermuda high will drift over the south east come may or july. It seems like the polar front jet is already lifting north giving it a little leeway to drift west over conus. This could the area some warmer water temperatures if that does happen.

Yet on the same not if that was to happen overall most of the storms would move south of the states, and that would be a good thing. So much synopsis to think about and as of now its all guessing.