Tropical Development Near Tampa, FL Now?

[HAltschule]

Satellite circulations over the past 18 hours have indicated some broad rotation over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The models (NAM in particular) has been developing a low pressure area near Tampa, FL. 00z models now show what appears to me to be a tropical system that is forming in the Eastern Gulf. Satellite and radar imagery have become much more impressive over the past 6 hours. I am very surprised that there has been no mention of this potential by NHC in any outlooks. The NAM seems to bring a tropical depression or storm Northward along the west coast of Florida to a landfall along the NW Panhandle in 60-70 hours or so. Upper level ridge and low level cyclone should favor slow development.

Discuss....

EDIT: Add GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET to the mix of models that indicate some low pressure area in the same location.

 

[cdcollura]

This disturbance has crossed N Florida and is not off the GA / SC coast as invest 96L.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

This disturbance has crossed N Florida and is not off the GA / SC coast as invest 96L.

Yeah I have been watching and hoping for several days now! I just happen to be on my way to Eastern Georgia (left today - family vacation) and I already have permission from the wife to do a little tropical intercept if I want. If it can make it to tropical storm status I very well might. The last few visible sat images show a bit more convection nearer the center. The models don't do much with hit but I wouldn't be surprised at all to make it to a weak tropical storm