Thursday's severe weather threat

[Jared Martin]

Hello, What do you guys expect with this weeks thunderstorm threat? Several Models show a chance of thunderstorms some possible strong. What are your thoughts?

 

[Kahner Cleveland]

What are everyone's thoughts on the upcoming severe weather threat Thursday? SPC has issued a marginal risk for much of the central states and a slight risk for parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas 3 days out. Over dramatized or worthy of discussion?

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[Tim Paitz]

It depends on where the frontal boundary is. There's also little instability. However, we'll see in the next day or so.

 

[Kahner Cleveland]

I'd have to agree. I'm also interested in seeing how western Iowa and eastern Nebraska shape up Thursday. The models are lining up with some agreement and are showing decent winds at 500mb and decent 0-3km helicity. I think if the sun can come out and get things going Thursday across Iowa and Nebraska we could get some decent convection Thurs. Night in these areas.

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[Tim Paitz]

I'd have to agree. I'm also interested in seeing how western Iowa and eastern Nebraska shape up Thursday. The models are lining up with some agreement and are showing decent winds at 500mb and decent 0-3km helicity. I think if the sun can come out and get things going Thursday across Iowa and Nebraska we could get some decent convection Thurs. Night in these areas.

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If wind shear is out of the SW there'll be more of a linear storm mode.

 

[Kahner Cleveland]

Thanks for clarification, Tim. I'm a newbie.

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[Mike Marz]

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2015-11-5-event-ok-tx.28781/#post-338581

 

[Kahner Cleveland]

Thanks Mike, wasn't aware of other posts

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