The Atlanta Disaster Could have been prevented

[Stephen Levine]

Here in the Dallas area, when a "winter storm watch" is called for our area, schools get cancelled the night before, Universities close, and many employers shut down their businesses.

For at least two days ahead of time, the NWS first had a "winter weather advisory" and later issued a "winter storm watch" that included areas just south of downtown Atlanta. Within one day of the event, the pink "warning" boxes extended up to Atlanta with the blue "advisory" line just to it's north. There was mention of up to 2" of snow possible.

Like Dallas, Atlanta does not have the ability to handle wintery weather there. Instead of Dallas, school officials chose to keep the schools open, businesses stayed open and once the event began, people freaked out and tried to drive home on impossibly icy roads.

Had officials acted with wisdom, they would have closed the schools. According to this evening's Weather Channel summary, by 3:30 a.m. the entire city of Atlanta was under a Winter Storm Warning. This would have given schools and businesses plenty of time to take corrective action, keep their kids and employees home and ride out the event at home.

Politicians there are blaming "not enough information from the forecasts" for their decision to keep things open. A solid look at the NWS maps leading up to the event prove otherwise.

Intrigued by this impending event as I was, I watched things unfold a few days in advance with the forecasts. When the pink line was bent from the LA and MS coast up into Georgia including near Atlanta a day in advance, I figured the NWS was expecting the off shore low to intensify as it moved east.

 

[Shane Adams]

Muggles are idiots when it comes to weather. I don't blame them for not knowing anything, because I used to be one of them. I get it. But blaming those who do understand weather for their own incompetent complacency is so f*cking American it's pathetic. If there's even a chance of being affected, why not initiate a plan of action? Because it's too much legwork and not worth the effort for just a "maybe"? This really shows how little (if at all) the GA brass care about their own citizens, the very people who put them in office. Nothing but an "absolute" warrants taking action to protect your cities and people, because those voting bastards just aren't worth a maybe.

I'm so tired of idiots with power who make sh*t decisions based on sh*t knowledge which creates sh*t opinions. This is as neglectful as faith healing parents who allow children to die because they believe an imaginary man will save them. Both should be punishable by imprisonment.

 

[mikedeason]

I can't speak for Atlanta, but for Birmingham and Jefferson Co., AL this is a short timeline of what transpired yesterday morning in regards to forecasted snow amounts and watches, warnings and advisories:

Early morning, Shelby county was under a winter weather advisory for 1/2 to 1-1/2" for snow. Jefferson County and Birmingham was under no advisory.

ALZ024-290015-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER
641 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

At 9:01 AM Winter Weather Advisory is extended to in include Jefferson County and Birmingham for up to one inch of snow.

FAYETTE-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAYETTE...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
CENTRE...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...
PELL CITY...MOODY
901 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THROUGH 9 PM.

* LOCATION...IN AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE.

At 11:06 Winter Storm Warning extended to Shelby and Jefferson Counties for 2 to 3 inches.

CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANNISTON...HEFLIN...BIRMINGHAM...
HOOVER...PELHAM...ALABASTER...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...
SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...
MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD
1106 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 9 PM.

* LOCATION...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND 59.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES.

I think the situation for us here in the B'ham metro was a little more complicated and fluid than a lot of people realize. A lot of workers and students commuted to work and school under the impression that it was going to be a "nice to look at" kind of snow. Before we get too critical, keep in mind that 99% of the public aren't weather geeks and take what they read or hear in a forecast at face value (or sometimes less, admittedly.)

There were several things that came together to exacerbate the situation yesterday.

First, almost all media forecasters and the NWS (and most of us "armchair" forecasters) failed to correctly forecast the northern extent of the snow, even as observational clues were coming into focus by daybreak. I can't speak for everyone, but the delay in upgrading the advisories and warnings may have been due to holding out a little longer to see if reality was going to get back in line with the forecast. It didn't

Secondly, we have had a long period of much below temperatures here in the deep south. Typically, when snow occurs here, ambient air temperatures are generally in the low to mid 30's and ground temperatures are warm enough to allow some melting of snowfall before road surfaces cool to below freezing and become hazardous. This generally allows enough time for (sensible) people and local agencies to react appropriately.

This was not the case yesterday. Snow immediately began accumulating on road surfaces and, by the time we were released from work, had formed a solid 1/4"-1/2" layer of compacted snow and ice on the road surfaces.

Third, the timing, as you can see from the warning chronology above, was "perfect." The situation began to take a radical turn by mid morning on a weekday with school in session and no proactive or preemptive action taken to mitigate the possible effects..

Finally, and somewhat obviously, point four is the lack of snow/ice removal resources in Alabama. I'm reasonably sure that, based on forecasts, what resources we do have were allocated mainly to the Montgomery and Mobile areas.

I'm not sure there's anyone to really "point fingers" at in this one. But what's most important is to take what happened, learn from it and makes plans to mitigate the effects of future situations which may present a similar synoptic and mesoscale setup.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yeah, I loved how the Governor of Georgia feigned disappointment in the "NWS models." Yet the actual professional NWS forecasters issued a Winter Storm Warning hours ahead of time. As if the Governor was studying the models himself yet came to a different conclusion than the NWS. As Mike Deason points out above, sometimes weather events can and do sneak up on you along with bad timing. However, at least for Georgia, it appears there was a bona fide forecast and the authorities in Georgia just didn't do their job which resulted in putting thousands of their citizens in harm's way. Of course, the lack of snow removal equipment is a limitation in the southern states, but it is precisely because of this limitation that government officials should know better and do everything possible to limit traffic.

Here in South Carolina, we were fortunate because officials let the kids out of school at noon Tuesday. This left about 2 hours buffer between the time they were let out of school and the first onset of precipitation. (See my separate thread.) At least the government officials here had the common sense to listen to the professional forecasters and then do their job as expected.

 

[Justin Wilcox]

I must be missing something... 1/4"-1/2" of snow is manageable. I assume anyone, no matter where youre from would use simple caution. I drove from Garden City, KS all the way down to near Childress, TX on 1/4" of ice back in 08' I think it was. I was in a Chevy Cobalt with stock tires and no chains. I took my time and used caution. I admit it was stupid to even do it, but I had 0 problems. I must be looking at this the wrong way...

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

I must be missing something... 1/4"-1/2" of snow is manageable. I assume anyone, no matter where youre from would use simple caution. I drove from Garden City, KS all the way down to near Childress, TX on 1/4" of ice back in 08' I think it was. I was in a Chevy Cobalt with stock tires and no chains. I took my time and used caution. I admit it was stupid to even do it, but I had 0 problems. I must be looking at this the wrong way...

ATL got 2.6" of snow from the event... a little more than the predicted 1-2" but the impact from 2" vs. 2.6" is fairly similar. In Birmingham, the forecast was for a dusting-0.5" and BHM recorded 2.0" of snow, which is considerably more dangerous than what the morning forecasts would have led one to believe. Granted, Birmingham just got "lucky" and got hit by a good snow band, and was one of the highest snow totals in the area.

 

[mikedeason]

I must be missing something... 1/4"-1/2" of snow is manageable. I assume anyone, no matter where youre from would use simple caution. I drove from Garden City, KS all the way down to near Childress, TX on 1/4" of ice back in 08' I think it was. I was in a Chevy Cobalt with stock tires and no chains. I took my time and used caution. I admit it was stupid to even do it, but I had 0 problems. I must be looking at this the wrong way...

1/4"-1/2" might be manageable when you have the resources and infrastructure to handle it and you know within a reasonable time before hand that you're going to get it. That was not the case here, however.

And I agree that driving with a little common sense goes a long way. Despite the fact it took me three hours to go seven miles in a rural area with hills due to the traffic, I was driving in a Kia Rio with cheap tires. But, to be fair, I also have a lot of experience driving in snow and ice.

However, the problem that arises is when you have tens of thousands of people trying to get out on the roads to pick up their kids from school (most buses did not run, which was a wise decision) and get home at one time. Within that group, you're always going to have a percentage that really shouldn't be driving out in it, for whatever reason, and then it only takes a few of those people to end up creating a traffic jam that is virtually impossible to escape from. That seems to be a huge factor in what happened here in the B'ham metro area.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I traveled to Alabama to 'chase' (observe and film) this event. I think this storm's impact was a more extreme example of the common perception that light winter precipitation (trace to a dusting) is 'not that bad'. It's a widely held belief that influences official decision-making and public behavior nationwide, not just in the south. I think that while the southern US is familiar with the fact that it doesn't take much snow to cause problems there, the forecast margin of error in these regions is *very* thin when you're talking about *any* amounts of snow. That is, a forecast for even a trace of snow should put everyone there on high alert and prepared for the worst.

 

[Stephen Levine]

I must be missing something... 1/4"-1/2" of snow is manageable. I assume anyone, no matter where youre from would use simple caution. I drove from Garden City, KS all the way down to near Childress, TX on 1/4" of ice back in 08' I think it was. I was in a Chevy Cobalt with stock tires and no chains. I took my time and used caution. I admit it was stupid to even do it, but I had 0 problems. I must be looking at this the wrong way...

Another issue is urban roads tend to ice up very quickly when light frozen prec. has fallen. The combination of pressure from all the tires, melting/refreezing from spinning tires due to fast starts/stops, etc. transform snow or sleet cover into sheet ice which is pretty much impossible to drive on -unless of course you have salt trucks in action, which as we know are in short to no supply here in the South.