Jason Foster
In your discussion/comments, you referred to Hurricane Earl and Hurricane Floyd. I was just asking how putting Hurricane Emily into that discussion would change or not change your position.
In your discussion/comments, you referred to Hurricane Earl and Hurricane Floyd. I was just asking how putting Hurricane Emily into that discussion would change or not change your position.
Mike Smith
Jason,
The online database of advisories at NHC does not go back to 1993, so I have to base my comments on Wikipedia, which is always dangerous to do.
So, with that disclaimer: I believe Emily strengthens my case. There were unnecessary widespread evacuations as far north as coastal New England per Wikipedia. I doubt that today warnings/evacuations would have occurred that far north.
What is so impressive is that the NHC forecasters had the confidence in their tools and issued excellent warnings when it would have been so tempting to overwarn. It is unfortunate that some overreacted (canceling flights to BOS and New Hampshire????) in areas far away from the warning.
In a railroad forum, a commenter posted, "it is wise to take precautions because those storms are fickle" (meaning hurricanes). To each its own, but I pointed out that there is a margin of safety built in the NHC's forecasts. I am hoping to get the message out that today's weather forecasts and storm warnings have a great deal of skill in them and they can be relied upon for decision-making purposes.
Mike
The online database of advisories at NHC does not go back to 1993, so I have to base my comments on Wikipedia, which is always dangerous to do.
So, with that disclaimer: I believe Emily strengthens my case. There were unnecessary widespread evacuations as far north as coastal New England per Wikipedia. I doubt that today warnings/evacuations would have occurred that far north.
What is so impressive is that the NHC forecasters had the confidence in their tools and issued excellent warnings when it would have been so tempting to overwarn. It is unfortunate that some overreacted (canceling flights to BOS and New Hampshire????) in areas far away from the warning.
In a railroad forum, a commenter posted, "it is wise to take precautions because those storms are fickle" (meaning hurricanes). To each its own, but I pointed out that there is a margin of safety built in the NHC's forecasts. I am hoping to get the message out that today's weather forecasts and storm warnings have a great deal of skill in them and they can be relied upon for decision-making purposes.
Mike
J Gontesky
EF0
Mike,
At the time of Floyd, was the synoptic scale flow over the eastern continental US similar to the flow during Earl?
At the time of Floyd, was the synoptic scale flow over the eastern continental US similar to the flow during Earl?
beaudodson
EF5
Mike, I don't think I was aware of your book. I did a search on Amazon and it was the first hit. I am interested in this topic and have ordered a copy. It is hard to put a price tag on many disasters (or disasters that could have been). Nice topic.
Jason Foster
I saw Mike in person at his presentation at the DC/AMS meeting (a few of you caught my thread about the live stream). Very interesting discussion and highlight to what seems to be some of the content of the book. I've just started reading it and plan to give a review of it at the end. I'm a slow reader though, but I will say the writing style is nice, keeps things moving...though the first 15 pages I've read so far.
rdale
EF5
Was the live stream saved?
Jason Foster
No, other than I think ChaserTV's archive (for CYA legal reasons), but Mike S. OK'd the live stream as long as I did not record or rebroadcast any part of his presentation. It was a one time deal. Mike may mention if he has any presentations/meetings he's doing closer to you in the future.
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