T-storm warning w/ motion of 120 mph???

[Mark Sudduth]

From NWS Raleigh, NC:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
4 products issued by NWS for: Garner NC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST

* AT 1056 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
PURNELL TO HOLLY SPRINGS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CREEDMOOR TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF CARY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 120 MPH. PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW HOPE...KNIGHTDALE...
WENDELL...ROLESVILLE...

DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
THESE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.



Yikes! Who wants to go track THAT one down?

 

[rdale]

It was a mistake made by the individual issuing the warning, it happens fairly often so not really worthy of a call-out...

 

[Dann Cianca]

That's pretty funny, Mark, and definitely worthy of a call out!

 

[Chris Frost]

It was a mistake made by the individual issuing the warning, it happens fairly often so not really worthy of a call-out...

How does a mistake like that happen fairly often? I think if I were writing that I'd be triple checking data. lol Is it even possible for a storm to move that fast? I mean, sure, theoretically a storm could probably move that fast, but in a "real world" environment...I don't think so

If I were writing that it wouldn't even feel right to write something like that

Look, I know people make mistakes,myself especially included,but is that not a pretty big mistake?

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Look, I know people make mistakes,myself especially included,but is that not a pretty big mistake?

I dunno but if I was trying to keep up with those warnings and such on a fast pace multi storm day I would certainly mess something up especially after numerous hours of doing so. Maybe he was meaning to type the speed and mentally was thinking of another storms direction of 120 degrees or something unrelated and the wires crossed. Its not that big of a deal as we know there is very little chance of it moving 120 mph with only 58 mph winds!!!!!

 

[mark plate]

How does a mistake like that happen fairly often? I think if I were writing that I'd be triple checking data. lol Is it even possible for a storm to move that fast? I mean, sure, theoretically a storm could probably move that fast, but in a "real world" environment...I don't think so

If I were writing that it wouldn't even feel right to write something like that

Look, I know people make mistakes,myself especially included,but is that not a pretty big mistake?

The software puts in the words...the warning forecaster doesn't have to type in anything except possibly expected hail size and wind speed, although in this warning, it looks like the generic minimal severe criteria were used without editing. When the warning forecaster issues a warning he clicks on the storm, then goes back a few minutes and clicks on where the storm was then, and the software calculates the motion from that. The error was made somewhere in the clicking on the position of the storm...likely the past position.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

The software puts in the words...the warning forecaster doesn't have to type in anything except possibly expected hail size and wind speed, although in this warning, it looks like the generic minimal severe criteria were used without editing. When the warning forecaster issues a warning he clicks on the storm, then goes back a few minutes and clicks on where the storm was then, and the software calculates the motion from that. The error was made somewhere in the clicking on the position of the storm...likely the past position.

Exactly...

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]
LAT...LON 3561 7900 3586 7890 3587 7882 3592 7881
3592 7875 3597 7871 3602 7871 3602 7875
3606 7875 3607 7870 3598 7843 3583 7826
3553 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 213DEG 108KT 3612 7866 3571 7880
[/FONT]

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

That's pretty funny. Anyone have a ZO6 for a chase vehicle?

Geez, people get way too serious on here. I see this as a humorous post, that's it. Life can really suck when you are constantly looking for something to stay grumpy. Lighten up.

 

[MatthewCarman]

How does a mistake like that happen fairly often?

Chris it happens more then you would think. Here is a wind report taken from FL earlier this year:

2235 124 PORT RICHEY PASCO FL 2828 8273 61 MPH WIND WITH GUST TO 73 MPH (TBW)

"124 PORT RICHEY" 124 = reported winds

 

[Chris Foltz]

Chris it happens more then you would think. Here is a wind report taken from FL earlier this year:

2235 124 PORT RICHEY PASCO FL 2828 8273 61 MPH WIND WITH GUST TO 73 MPH (TBW)

"124 PORT RICHEY" 124 = reported winds

Matthew,

The report you reference was from 1/19/08. Looking at the SPC reports from that day (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080119_rpts.html)[FONT=Arial+1][/FONT], the preliminary LSR indicated measured sustained wind 61 mph wind with a gust of 73 mph. I see no indication of a 124 mph wind in the preliminary LSR or the final StormData report.

 

[Danny Neal]

Matthew,

The report you reference was from 1/19/08. Looking at the SPC reports from that day (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080119_rpts.html), the preliminary LSR indicated measured sustained wind 61 mph wind with a gust of 73 mph. I see no indication of a 124 mph wind in the preliminary LSR or the final StormData report.

Furthermore, I would go out on a limb to say that 124 PORT RICHEY is the location? Address? something along those lines.

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

Since that storm was to pass over my home I wondered what the effect would be when I heard that warning on my radio that night. Ed

 

[Mark Sudduth]

There were plenty of storms with 70 mph forward speeds that night and I thought, why not? It could be possible that this one cell is simply hauling the mail- I did not post the report to call anyone out. On the other hand, being called out for errors, as long as there is no malice intended, is a learning tool in my opinion. I mis-spell stuff on my web site often and appreciate it when people actually take the time to care enough to tell me I made a mistake. That, to me, is a sign that people have more than just a passing interest in my work. None the less, I was not calling out anyone on purpose- just posting the seemingly impossible storm motion.

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

Mark, thanks for the post. Without it I would still believe that the 120 mph speed was correct. Ed

 

[rdale]

I don't think anyone criticized you for bringing up the error - it's just that this is a regular event and gets posted here fairly often.