Surface low on models VS What the SPC is saying

[Darren Addy]

I'm wondering if anyone can explain to me the difference between what I'm seeing on the models and what the SPC is saying it today's Day 3 Outlook. Specifically, the models are showing the surface low in SE Colorado or along the CO/KS border as of 00Z on Thursday. Meanwhile the Day 3 Outlooks says:

SFC LOW MIGRATING NWD INTO SD

That would seem to indicate either really rapid movement through the NE panhandle, or the spc expects the surface low a lot farther north (and possibly east) of where the models are showing it.

I'm just wondering if I'm reading the models incorrectly, looking at the wrong low, or where the SPC gets their low location from. Thanks for any insights.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

National Weather Service Meteorologist Forecasters use numeric forecast models as guidance when preparing their forecasts. At Day 2 and beyond, the numerical models are their primary guidance tool. But bear in mind, there are multiple computer forecast models each producing a difference forecasts. It's the meteorologist's job to make sense of it all. I could write a long dissertation concerning the art and science of how meteorologists make their forecasts.

The reason why the numerical models haven't taken the meteorologists jobs yet is because the human forecaster is still better. However, the numerical models will produce virtually all official U.S. weather forecasts someday. I suspect this will happen in about 10 to 40 years, but money and politics will play a giant role in this.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

A few models that have less vertical resolution in the lower levels, often times have a bias to develop and track a surface low differently than what is observed. Forecasters understand these model biases and in conjunction with current data, they make a forecast that is often quite different than the model, yet nearly right on in reality.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Well the lee trough is the start....so anywhere across the High Plains along and north of the I-80 corrdior is the typical jumping point for June surface lows. As often is the case, you'll get an occlusion then triple point situation south or southeast of the suggested model guidance. This new "fresh" low normally becomes the thing to make chasers drool in April and May, but yet avoid when the hot termal ridges become firmly entrenched.