Supercell Specific Probability Map/Forecast Online ?

[Steve Frederick]

I use these 2 for determining if it's worth going out in my area (south-central Minnesota)
https://www.spc.noaa.gov
https://www.wunderground.com/severeconvective.asp?outlook=today

Wondering if there's a site that shows a forecast/map specifically for the chances of supercell development ?
Or maybe that's already shown in the 2 above & I don't understand it ?

For instance, today's convective outlook.


Could I interpret this map to mean that there's a slight risk for supercell development in most of Minnesota, & an enhanced risk in west central Minnesota & the majority of North Dakota ?

Or is it simply showing the chance for severe weather (strong winds, hail, heavy rain, etc) in those area's ?

Thanks

 

[Devin Pitts]

The SPC outlook graphic outlines a general area for the probability of severe weather occuring, may it be in the form of supercells or other organized severe like squall lines or MCS's. The actual forecast discussion for a particular outlook delves further into the event and discusses what mode of storm and types of severe weather are possible.

 

[Steve Frederick]

The SPC outlook graphic outlines a general area for the probability of severe weather occuring, may it be in the form of supercells or other organized severe like squall lines or MCS's. The actual forecast discussion for a particular outlook delves further into the event and discusses what mode of storm and types of severe weather are possible.

Thanks Devin

 

[I MacDaniel]

Also, looking at probability of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail can give you some hints. Normally when I see hatched area for very large hail, I would know that the most likely mode is supercell. When I see higher wind probabilities, sometimes with significant winds, with lower hail probabilities, that would lean MCS to me.