Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)

[Mike Kovalchick]

An unusually strong SSW event is in progress.

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

"Forced by (unpredictable) dynamical processes responsible for the strong west coast ridge a couple of weeks ago (see 23 January posting), a major SSW is in progress. In fact, data records going back to 1978 (see new stratosphere monitoring link in the Appendix) suggest this SSW is the strongest given this time of year"

Link to chart of it showing the current temperature spike:

http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

Link to an article on how this may impact weather in the U.S. (Bitter cold possible again Mid-February Northern Tier with a strong storm track developing through the midsection.) I wonder if this might trigger the first good chaseable weather this year in the Southern Plains?

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/229139/

Link to what a SSW is and it's significance:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

 

[rdale]

The article link about the Feb cold snap doesn't mention any details on how that prediction was correlated... Is there something else?

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I think it is pretty clear that a sudden complete disruption / reversal of the polar vortex will cause anomalous weather but exactly what has a lot to do with the base state that overall weather pattern is in to begin with. There also seems to be about a 4 week delay in the impacts.

This might help:

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0493(1988)116%3C0162%3ASSWAAU%3E2.0.CO%3B2

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2009/01/sudden-stratospheric-warming.html

"Pronounced weakenings of the NH wintertime stratospheric polar vortex tend to be followed by episodes of anomalously low surface air temperatures and increased frequency of occurrence of extreme cold events throughout densely populated regions such as eastern North America, northern Europe, and eastern Asia that persist for ~2 months."

"A warm stratosphere means the tropopause has lowered which in turn means lower heights in the troposphere and low trope heights mean cold conditions at the surface."

Ed Berry's blog is probably the best read on guessing what the SSW will do to the La Nina pattern that we are in now.

 

[rdale]

It's the SSW/LN combo that has me at least putting some question into the "major cold snap" theory.

Plus Ed's blogs are way over my head - I just concentrate on the "this is what it means" part

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

It's the SSW/LN combo that has me at least putting some question into the "major cold snap" theory.

Plus Ed's blogs are way over my head - I just concentrate on the "this is what it means" part

Another source to consider is Joe Bastardi. I don't have access to Joe B. long range forecasts other than a current video clip on Accuweather..in that he strongly suggests it will turn very warm next week...followed by a month of very cold/snowy weather for many areas. (I'm sure Michigan is on the list!) I suspect he is picking up on this SSW event as well.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp

 

[rdale]

He's part of the same group that said tomorrow's storm in the NE would be comparable to the Superstorm of '93 though...

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

He's part of the same group that said tomorrow's storm in the NE would be comparable to the Superstorm of '93 though...

Well then-you are just going to have to figure out what Ed Berry is saying!(I think he likes to take pot shots at Joe on occasion without ever actually naming him.)

I read every one of Ed's posts in a rather desperate attempt to improve my understanding of long range weather forecasting. (Mostly to schedule ahead of time the actual departure date of my May chase vacation...last year-I nailed it perfectly for a change.)

I could spend the rest of the afternoon trying to figure out what the following means.... or not?

"AAM was ~2.5 sigma below the R1 data climatology forcing the WB (2009) measure of the GWO deeply (~2 sigma) into octants 2-3 of phase space."

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

This gives you an idea of the shear magnitude of this SSW event. The average temperature at latitudes of 60 to 90 degrees at 50 hPA has risen above what it normally is in the Summer. Wow!! In fact, it is as high as it has been at any time of the year since at least 1978.[Keep this mind..."A warm stratosphere means the tropopause has lowered which in turn means lower heights in the troposphere and low trope heights mean cold conditions at the surface."]

ftp://hyperion.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/ftpmet/nmcdata/annual/t60_90n_50_2008.gif

Nothing like it since at least 1978..in particular..it has a much more powerful effect on the weather when it occurs in mid-winter. I believe it can have just as much effect on the weather as an El-Nino pattern.

I have to imagine that there will be some violent weather in the U.S. as the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern shifts wildly over the next couple of weeks to reflect this sudden change.

A nice detailed explaination of the current event can be found here: http://keeneweather.blogspot.com/2009/01/stratospheric-warming.html and the latest update here: http://keeneweather.blogspot.com/

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Was the SSW event that saw the Stratosphere temperature over the Northern Hemisphere increase 53 degree C. in a few days actually caused by a "Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash" from an unknown location in outer space? Perhaps from aliens?

Was this the first time that cosmic rays from space have been shown to effect global weather patterns?

The conspiracy theoryists are having a field day with this one:

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message718730/pg3

The video of the cosmic shockwave hitting the earth is impressive and it's fairly clear that it may have been the cause of the sudden warming.

Cosmic-rays detected half a mile underground in a disused U.S. iron-mine can be used to detect major weather events occurring 20 miles up in the Earth’s upper atmosphere, a new study has revealed.

http://www.ncas.ac.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=446&Itemid=249

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Ed Berry's latest on the SSW event:

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

"The record breaking (data going back to 1978) major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) continues."

"Surface weather across large portions of the Northern Hemisphere is already being impacted."

Storm chasers should take special note of this part(will we be chasing in Texas/OK instead of Kansas/Nebraska this year?)

"Speculating farther, while March-June 2009 may have weather similarities to that period during 2008, the seasonal northward migration of the polar jet may be delayed"

In the meantime, the NAO index could plunge to record low levels-if so some wild winter weather could result:

newxsfc.blogspot.com/2009/02/sudden-stratospheric-warming-motherlode.html

 

[A Newcomb]

I don't have much knowledge on this phenomenon.
Are we looking at a later start to the Severe Weather Season here in the IN/IL area...(and the heart of the big tornadoes in OK/TX instead of farther north as you mentioned)

Also, could this mean a late start to spring in the Midwest/Great Lakes?

TIA for your help.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I don't have much knowledge on this phenomenon.
Are we looking at a later start to the Severe Weather Season here in the IN/IL area...(and the heart of the big tornadoes in OK/TX instead of farther north as you mentioned)

Also, could this mean a late start to spring in the Midwest/Great Lakes?

TIA for your help.

Certainly, the odds favor a colder than normal Spring. What we will have to watch out for is dreaded Hudson Bay Vortex pattern(persistent ridge West trough East) setup. Ouch! If we see that-it won't be matter of a late season..there just won't be much of season at all.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

So far, the GFS isn't indicating any sort of a Hudson Bay vortex developing through 384 hours, however, it does indicate a pocket of cold air propagating southeastward across Canada which could lead to the development of the HB vortex. I'm keeping my fingers crossed this SSW event will send the cold air elsewhere!