stratfor.com: "New Orleans: a geopolitical prize"

[Kurt Wayne]

(Or: "Why some are guessing there will be people back south of Pontchartrain eventually")

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman
...
During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn't come in, and the agricultural wealth wouldn't flow out. Alternative routes really weren't available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans was the prize.

Last Sunday, nature took out New Orleans almost as surely as a nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina's geopolitical effect was not, in many ways, distinguishable from a mushroom cloud. The key exit from North America was closed. The petrochemical industry, which has become an added value to the region since Jackson's days, was at risk. The navigability of the Mississippi south of New Orleans was a question mark. New Orleans as a city and as a port complex had ceased to exist, and it was not clear that it could recover.

The Ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the history of the republic. On its own merit, POSL is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn, soybeans and so on. A large proportion of U.S. agriculture flows out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 17 million tons, comes in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on….

The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it -- and that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable for a long time….

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces. It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States…

http://corner.nationalreview.com/05_08_28_...hive.asp#075231

 

[Kurt Wayne]

continuing

The NRO guy said it was paid registration, but I got in the site...here are the last few paragraphs (remember how it's been said before that the way to control a country is to control its access to the sea (via a Navy)?:

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem. Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United States needs a city right there.

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place.

http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive/05090...ics_katrina.php

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Re: continuing

The NRO guy said it was paid registration, but I got in the site...here are the last few paragraphs (remember how it's been said before that the way to control a country is to control its access to the sea (via a Navy)?:

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem. Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United States needs a city right there.

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place.

http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive/05090...ics_katrina.php

and this is exactly why those spouting off to abandon and relocate the city are wrong. Granted there are going to be alot of people (refugees) that will never return to new orleans but the city must be rebuilt there.

The Baton rouge US HWY 190 bridge height was a strategic plan devised by huey p long so that baton Rouge and New orleans would flourish into the ports that they are today.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Re: continuing

and this is exactly why those spouting off to abandon and relocate the city are wrong. Granted there are going to be alot of people (refugees) that will never return to new orleans but the city must be rebuilt there.

So that raises a possibility. Could we rebuild the port of N.O. as an federal industrial complex, excluding other development?

 

[Kurt Wayne]

...

Rob, I don't think we could as such without it being so massive as to still require an adjacent population.

BTW, in the NRO one of their writers said that he's learned that almost half the world's stored zinc is in N.O. right now.

AND HOPEFULLY IT'S NOT IN THE HANDS OF THESE CRETINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!1:

ANARCHY, AGAIN. [Rod Dreher]
Heard just now from an old journalism school friend, now living in Atlanta, who sent the following desperate message by e-mail: I am hoping you can help. I am friends with a NOPD police officer Elizabeth Garcia. Things are MUCH MUCH worse in New Orleans. The inmates took over Central Lock up in New Orleans and took over the armory. They are targeting police and the police are under seige. She and 9 other police officers are running out of ammuntion and are being held down at the Hampton Inn across from the Convention Center. She just got her cell phone access and is calling everyone she knows to get out the information. They need assistance immediately. Please help in any way you can.

I called my friend just now to verify this. She said things have improved a bit since she sent the mail earlier this morning. She said that she got it to CNN, who relayed it to authorities. My friend, Lee, said that she spoke by phone to Officer Garcia (who can't call anybody locally, but who can call out of the 504 and 225 area codes), who said the criminal gangs have automatic weaponry because they looted the police armory. According to Lee, Ofc. Garcia told her that the police can't help people because "anybody in a uniform is being targeted" by these gangs. NOPD is receiving reports of children being raped and killed by these thugs, but they are outgunned and powerless. "It's complete and total anarchy," Lee quoted Ofc. Garcia as saying.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/05_08_28_...hive.asp#075254

 

[Kurt Wayne]

...

Whoops, sorry,

Scroll down to "ANARCHY, AGAIN"...that's the only thing I meant to publish.

I hope the feds are able to stay there for awhile. I can't imaging Cargill wanting to reopen their grain ports or Tyson their refrigerated facilities with a bunch of these hoods running around.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Re: continuing

and this is exactly why those spouting off to abandon and relocate the city are wrong. Granted there are going to be alot of people (refugees) that will never return to new orleans but the city must be rebuilt there.

So that raises a possibility. Could we rebuild the port of N.O. as an federal industrial complex, excluding other development?

The ports need people to work and those people need houses so a good part will be rebuilt. I'm sure downtow will be rebuilt since it's not all that bad. but the residential areas should be leveled and built up.

I talked to a friend who lives in kenner and he heard from his neighbor that his street did not get any water. they have minor wind damage. so there are inhabitable places in the region. plus alot up river around laplace is ok.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I have heard talk of the debris from the storm being used to build the city back up to a higher elevation but if you ask me this seems like a ridiculous idea as a pile of garbage is likely to be much more porous than an earthen dam or levee. We need to have this city to survive as it is the only area where supertankers (really big f'ing oil boats) can dock in the United States. I hope that whatever they do, this disaster has given them a realization that the city of New Orleans is never going to be the same.

 

[Rob_Davis]

Re: continuing

The ports need people to work and those people need houses so a good part will be rebuilt. I'm sure downtow will be rebuilt since it's not all that bad. but the residential areas should be leveled and built up.

But downtown is in the bowl. That is the part I am not so sure we need to rebuild full-scale. It wouldn't be absolutely necessary in order to support a port. And, as you point out, there is plenty of living area outside of the bowl that really isn't that far off. There is no residential neighbourhood or businesses in the immediate vicinity of Area 51 either, but they function just fine.

My point is, there is no such thing as hurricane proof. We can rebuild the levees bigger and better and stronger, but there will always be a bigger, better, and stronger hurricane, not to mention that those levees weaken with age, creating a constant need for upgrading. If we move people back in there, we are doing so knowing full well that it can happen again.

If they actually move neighbourhoods and businesses back into the bowl, which I am sure they will, I think it should be made absolutely clear to them that they are on their own next time. You move in at your own risk.