Storm comming in

[Justin McGinley]

Ok so the local NWS offices are saying that there could be a storm around the wed-thursday time frame. So they have been looking at THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. So I took a crack at it and when i looked I got all confused again. So could anyone guide me into wat I should be looking at?

 

[rdale]

You might peruse the existing storm thread, your question is just a little (well, way too much ) open-ended.

 

[Justin McGinley]

Well I will do that thanks rdale!!

 

[Darren Addy]

One suggestion might be to read the Forecast Discussions for the different states. Google the terms "forecast discussion" and NE (for example) to see the forecast discussion for the three NWS offices in Nebraska. This is where you will get the most verbose explanations of the "big picture" (some offices and forecasters are more verbose than others).

For example, right now the last paragraph of the Hastings NWS discussion says:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND A STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY ANN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE THE SAME BASIC PLAN...BUT THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS A DIFFERENCE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND STILL GIVES SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE NEXT
PROBLEM WITH THIS IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND
WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW.

So that tells you the time frame and what level to be looking at for the low. It also gives you some other things to look for such as temperatures aloft. You can also compare the output of the different models to see the differences in where they predict the upper level low to be, and when.

Another thing that is fun to watch in the winter is the HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Here's a look at Thurs/Friday, for example:

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[Lanny Dean]

Ok so the local NWS offices are saying that there could be a storm around the wed-thursday time frame. So they have been looking at THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. So I took a crack at it and when i looked I got all confused again. So could anyone guide me into wat I should be looking at?

Justin, first off, are you familiar with those particular models and where to go to look at them? Second question is do you understand the time frame given?

You need to understand the time frame first, despite what you might have heard elsewhere...simply stated, if you do not know what time your looking at you will never understand it.

Here is an old thread that may help you understand Zulu time as well as Daylight saving time:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/archive/index.php/t-16173.html

Here is a place to start with explaining what the GFS is form Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

I liken the GFS as my short range to mid range model and the ECMWF as my long range model...hope this helps a little.

 

[Darren Addy]

Also, Justin, don't know how much atmosphere science you have studied (in school or on your own) but a good site that is almost universally recommended by ST-ers is Haby's Hints. LOTS of good info there to help grasp the basics and beyond. After you understand how to read a map, what a Low is, etc. you can then start translating your knowledge to the current models.

Don't get discouraged. It can be a long learning curve, believe ME.