Storm Chasing in 100 Years (Climate Change)

[ahaberlie]

Quick question that may lead to a discussion.

If we continue on this path of carbon emission and subsequent global average temperature increase, what will storm chasing be like in 2110? I am not really concerned about the flying car and advanced technology side of it. What I am really interested in is what storms will be like. (ie Mode, Strength, More Precip)

Will we have more intense near surface layers? More moisture in the air? What changes can we expect in the air aloft?

We obviously see more tornadoes in the spring/summer when it is relatively warmer than the winter, but would we necessarily see an increase in severe weather if we raise the temperature by 5C?

Links to research are welcomed and encouraged.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I invite you to listen to Howard Brooks' talk from the SLS conference that took place in Denver last month regarding just such a topic:

EDIT: I have been informed that the link I posted is invalid. Here is a better one: Click on "Recorded Presentation".

 

[Jason Foster]

Jeff, I'll have to check that out. But before I do:

I think that there will be more factors outside of the climate that will change the face of chasing around the 100 year mark. Hell, I'm thinking that the next 25 years will be one that will see a more drastic change in the chasing world than the change from the 1950s earlier chasers to now. I've already spoken of the likelihood in the not to distant future of ham radio becoming obsolete for storm reporting, and I think other aspects like a big change for media and business associated chasers. One thing I do see as potentially lasting outside of the pure hearted hobby chasers is the tour groups.

Climate wise, what would be interesting is to see if new areas emerge as target areas. I already see where the hurricane chase world is being flooded by new chasers. I can see volcanic, tsunami and other significant weather or non-weather but geographic elements be a source of 'chasing' on scales that our world has seen over the past years. If and when earthquake prediction happens....look for a whole new bread of extreme sport.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I invite you to listen to Howard Brooks' talk from the SLS conference that took place in Denver last month regarding just such a topic:

talk

For those that wish not to listen, a really quick summary of his talk is that in the next 100 or so years, instability will increase and shear will decrease due to lessening baroclinicity due to more warming predicted to occur at high latitudes as opposed to at lower latitudes. Also, as some are already noting, the polar jet stream is moving north into Canada earlier in the year than it was in the past, thus shortening the season in the southern Great Plains and extending it farther north.